If you're reading this, I'm going to assume you're fairly obsessed with fantasy basketball.
If you play it -- really play it -- fantasy hoops simultaneously demands and generates obsession. You get out of it what you put into it. But most of us started playing because we possessed a foundational passion for NBA basketball.
Above all, it's an investment. An investment of time and genuine feeling. With a highly enjoyable and even educational return.
So what happens when your favorite geeky pastime unexpectedly encounters an immense, complex, unexpected adult-sized portion of grief? And the people you feel you've come to know, admire and sometimes even left-field love are so cruelly, completely and traumatically devastated?
You get parceled out your own odd little corner of grief.
Okay. So it's a reflection of grief. But if it stings, it's real. And it's earned. Because we chose to make that investment. And because hopefully we have the gift of empathy.
So when the NBA ecosystem you obsessively follow 52 weeks a year gets walloped like this? And you see profound suffering? And come away strangely, unexpectedly gutted?
Go with it. Grab it. Be thankful for it. And then try to pivot.
So while the fantasy effects of usage rate track incalculably trivial in comparison to this week's catastrophe, hopefully you're contemplating said metrics with a deeper appreciation.
Appreciation, gratitude and empathy ... for the gifted people who make those numbers a reality.
So, here's my pivot:
I was in the 20th row for Kobe's 81-point game. I was in the room where that happened. Row 20. It remains the greatest live sporting performance I've ever witnessed.
I maintain that my tinnitus didn't start with an electric guitar. It started Jan. 22, 2006. Started with the lady who sat behind me screaming one long, sustained, JPL-level shriek in my left ear for two-and-a-half straight hours.
Those 81 points kind of ... snuck up on you. Twenty-six points in the first half, followed by a sublime, sneaky-explosive 55-point second half. The highlight reel of that game is punctuated by the 3s, the 46 field goal attempts.
But if you watch the entire game, what really pushed the game into rarified air was the free throws.
Going 18-of-20 at the line is what made 81 a reachable destination. Because it allowed the rhythm of the game to slow. It turned down the pace.
From a fantasy perspective, it was a clinic. A master class in how free throw performance is the most underrated aspect of points-based production.
Yes. Free throws. Baby steps. Let's get bored.
Because free throw production isn't just a byproduct of premium fantasy value. It can also be an indicator of future fantasy potential. Evidence that a player is leveling up his fantasy game.
A couple of weeks back, I discussed the best way to reboot a scoring-addled fantasy perspective: ignoring points per game.
What's a responsible way to reintroduce a little scoring into your life? How can we talk about point production in a way that can help you right now? Midseason? Going into the trade deadline? Follow the free throws.
I'm not just telling you to take a look at who's leading the league in free throw percentage. Because, like so many sources of hidden production, proper fantasy valuation of free throw performance mandates nuance.
First: We have to fold in percentage with volume. It's better to roster a player hitting 85% across 10 attempts per game than a player hitting 90% across five attempts per game.
Second: Recognize what an increase in free throw production represents. Better shot selection. A willingness to take it to the hoop. A developing ability to draw contact. Finally ... an expanding reputation that's more liable to draw calls.
Third: View free throw production in relative terms. As a group, big men aren't quite as efficient from the line. So a center hitting 80% of his free throws is more valuable than a guard hitting 80%.
Fourth: Don't look for value that's well-established. Look for players who are raising their free throw game. Players on the rise. Employ free throw production as an indicator of a player getting ready to level up ... then target those players before your fellow managers wake up.
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs
I'll start with a slightly obvious name to enunciate the point. DeRozan has nearly doubled his free throw attempts over the past month, ratcheting up from 5.4 attempts per game to 9.4 per game. At the same time, DeRozan upped his free throw percentage from 78.5% in December to 90.1% for January.
DeRozan's field goal attempts per game? Down this month. His 3-point production? Down. But the boost in free throw production is real proof that DeRozan is elevating his game. He's a player who traditionally runs hot and cold. If you can acquire him on the upswing, you'll reap the best of this "hot" period.
Alec Burks, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors
On the surface, Burks has inarguably peaked. His points per game, field goal percentage, field goal attempts are all trending down. You know what actually improved? You guessed it.
In the middle of a slump from the field, Burks' free throw percentage and attempts have both risen. His 94.5 FT% for January raised his percentage for the season to a Curry-esque 89.8 FT%. He's holding on to value and is actually diversifying his value across multiple categories (especially rebounds).
I'm not saying Burks gets back to his December binge-worthy lines. But he's worth hanging on to as a deep upside bench player in medium-to-deep leagues.
Collin Sexton, PG/SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
As we know, the scoring has been there. Sexton's issue has been moving past "empty points" player status. He has to generate multicategorical value. But just as importantly, he needs to power his scoring with less volume and more efficiency. Fewer 2s. More 3s.
Sexton's January is making me start to believe. The assists and rebounds are ramping up. The 3s have spiked -- in attempts and percentage. Sexton just posted the best month of his career from deep, hitting 46.4% across 4.6 3-point attempts per tilt. Sexton's shifting possessions beyond the arc have dinged his free throw attempts, but he's making up for it by boosting his percentage.
All around, Sexton is flashing lasting, sustainable value that goes well beyond pure points.
Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
This is another Burks situation. It's just that Garland's slump has been more sudden and dramatic. But if you can afford the stash, Garland is worth hanging on to. The minutes are going to be there. And despite a couple of terrible nights from the field, Garland's free throw performance is still up for the month.
Don't forget: The rookie wall is a myth. This is a divot. A pothole. If you can spare the space, Garland is holding all kinds of second-half upside.
Brandon Clarke, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
Figuring out a way for Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. to peacefully and statistically coexist will be one of the more underrated second-half stories in fantasy.
Clarke seems to make incremental jumps in value on a game-to-game basis. But Clarke's low volume of minutes (22.1 MPG for January) and field goal attempts (7.1 FGA for January) don't track as a "free throw monster." But when Clarke has gotten to the line this month, he has been as close to automatic as anyone in the NBA.
Put it this way: He has missed only two free throws since New Year's Day, good for a 93.5 FT%. Again, another player well worth a stash, especially if some of Memphis' veteran depth is dealt at the deadline.