The Champions League fixtures on Tuesday and Wednesday should look familiar. We saw the same exact pairings two weeks ago. The only thing that's changed is who's the home team, and who's away.
That means looking back at the results from the previous round should be particularly informative. But teams' forms can fluctuate quite a bit in two weeks' time.
Here are my picks for Matchweek 4:
Tier 1 forward
Add: Harry Kane (Tottenham)
It sounds like Lionel Messi could be back, but he's coming off an injury, and Barcelona have a tough matchup, playing at red-hot Inter Milan. Kane scored a goal and took six shots in Tottenham's 2-2 draw at PSV, and also scored a goal and took eight shots in their 3-2 win at Wolves on Saturday. Tottenham dominated the first game against PSV, despite the scoreline, and must win to have any chance of progressing to the knockout rounds.
Avoid: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
I strongly considered selecting Aguero, who is coming off a goal and two assists in Manchester City's 6-1 rout of Southampton on Sunday -- until I looked at the schedule. Kane and Mohamed Salah, the other player I was considering here, both play on Tuesday (as does Messi). Manchester City's game is on Wednesday, and Aguero didn't start in the first game against Shakhtar Donetsk. There's a risk that Aguero won't start again, and if I wait until Wednesday to find out, I won't be able to pivot to one of my other top choices.
Tier 2 forward
Add: Edin Dzeko (Roma)
He had two goals and an assist in Roma's 3-0 home win over CSKA Moscow two weeks ago, and a hat trick in a 5-0 home win over Viktoria Plzen in Matchweek 2. It's hard not to pick Dzeko here, even playing in Moscow. He didn't score in a 1-1 draw with Fiorentina on Saturday, but still took six shots. And Dzeko scored eight goals in 12 Champions League games last season.
Avoid: Rodrigo (Valencia)
The matchup looks attractive, with his team hosting Young Boys. But Valencia were outplayed in their 1-1 draw in Switzerland two weeks ago, and Rodrigo did not take a single shot in that game despite playing the full 90 minutes. He scored 16 goals in La Liga last season, but has just one in 10 appearances so far this season.
Tier 1 midfielder
Add: David Silva (Manchester City)
He scored a goal and had five chances created in Manchester City's 3-0 win at Shakhtar Donetsk, and finished with 24.5 fantasy points. His team is the second-biggest favorite this week, and I don't think Silva is as risky as Aguero. I'd be really surprised if Silva doesn't start, and there will also be other good options available in this tier on Wednesday in case he doesn't.
Avoid: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
He's coming off a huge game against Southampton, with two goals and two assists. But Sterling was very quiet in the first game against Shakhtar, finishing with just 5.7 points. He also failed to register a goal or assist in Manchester City's first two Champions League games, against Lyon and Hoffenheim. Silva is the safer play -- he'll probably have many more passes completed, and more chances created. And hopefully he'll pick up a goal and/or assist, too.
Tier 2 midfielder
Add: James Rodriguez (Bayern Munich)
His team is the biggest favorite of the week, playing at home against AEK Athens. That wasn't quite enough to persuade me to pick Robert Lewandowski over Dzeko as my Tier 2 forward, but I think both James and Arjen Robben are good choices here. They've both scored three goals in eight Bundesliga appearances this season. I give the edge to James, who -- like Silva -- will probably have more passes completed and more chances created.
Avoid: Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund)
There's been so much buzz about the 18-year-old Englishman plying his trade in the Bundesliga, and rightfully so -- he already has four goals and six assists in 10 games domestically, and one apiece in three Champions League games. But Borussia Dortmund are playing at Atletico Madrid, which should be difficult, despite the fact Dortmund beat them 4-0 in Germany.
Tier 3 midfielder
Add: Yacine Brahimi (Porto)
He had an assist in the 3-1 win at Lokomotiv Moscow two weeks ago, and Porto are strong favorites in the return fixture on Tuesday. Brahimi has two goals in nine league games in Portugal so far this season, and had a goal and an assist in seven Champions League games last year.
Avoid: Grzegorz Krychowiak (Lokomotiv Moscow)
Not only are his team pretty heavy underdogs, but Krychowiak actually lined up as a central defender in the first meeting with Porto, and in their most recent domestic game as well. That obviously limits his offensive potential.
Tier 1 defender
Add: Kieran Trippier (Tottenham)
He had an assist and eight chances created (eight!) in the 2-2 draw at PSV, and finished with more than 20 fantasy points. With Tottenham at home this time around, I like Trippier's chances of having another big game offensively.
Avoid: Kyle Walker (Manchester City)
It's a great matchup, but he just doesn't do enough offensively to merit selection over some of the other fullbacks in this tier. Walker only has six chances created in nine Premier League games so far this season, and none in three Champions League games.
Tier 2 defender
Add: Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma)
He didn't start in the first game against CSKA Moscow, but started in Roma's previous two Champions League games, and had an assist against Viktoria Plzen. Kolarov takes some set pieces, and is both a goal and assist threat. He already has two goals in Serie A this year.
Avoid: Ismaily (Shakhtar Donetsk)
He has the highest fantasy points per game average, by far, in this tier. But that's because he had a goal and assist in Shakhtar's first two games, against Hoffenheim and Lyon. Against Manchester City the first time around, however, Ismaily had no goal or assist and zero chances created.
Goalkeeper
Add: Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich)
He had a clean sheet, plus one save, at AEK Athens two weeks ago. I think another clean sheet at home is very likely, and hopefully Neuer will pick up a save or two as well. AEK do have 25 shots, and eight on target, in their first three games. I also considered Alisson of Liverpool, but he didn't have to make a single save two weeks ago, and Red Star Belgrade have only taken 15 shots, the lowest total in the competition.
Avoid: Fernando Muslera (Galatasaray)
He finished with a matchweek-best (for goalkeepers) 28.0 fantasy points last time around, thanks to a clean sheet and six saves in a scoreless home draw with Schalke. But Muslera was rather fortunate, statistically speaking. Schalke had 17 shots, with eight on target, and an expected goals total of 2.14. And this time they'll be playing at home.
Captain
Dzeko is certainly tempting. After all, he's second in Champions League fantasy points, right behind Messi. But I'm going to go with Kane, who's playing at home. He's scored a goal in back-to-back Champions League games now, and scored six in 11 Champions League games last season.