If MLS prop bets were popular and Las Vegas sports books offered preseason odds on the first coach in the domestic league to be fired in 2016, Adrian Heath's name probably would have topped the list.
Heath, the Orlando City SC boss who is now in his second MLS season (and seventh overall) as the Lions coach, believes that had OCSC not ended its debut season by winning five of its last six games, he could have easily suffered the same fate as New York City FC's Jason Kreis, who was shown the door following the fellow expansion team's playoff-less 2015.
"Had we carried on like we did in July and August," Heath, in an phone interview this week, said of a 10-game stretch that produced just a single victory. "Chances are I might have gone the same way as Jason."
Orlando City's owners may have proven more patient than NYCFC's but they are no less ambitious. "We want to be the best club in North America and we want to be one of the best clubs in the world," club founder and minority investor Phil Rawlins told ESPN FC. "People sometimes giggle at that, but that's very much our goal."
It's a lofty one, for sure, but three games into the new campaign, Orlando City sits third in the Eastern Conference heading into Sunday's nationally televised match against the defending MLS Cup champion Portland Timbers. Heath believes that his team should be 3-0 -- they beat NYCFC (now managed by Patrick Vieira) on the road but settled for ties at home against Real Salt Lake and Chicago. All things considered, though, Orlando is in a better place than many expected given what happened over the winter.
In early December, eyebrows raised across the league when the club and general manager Paul McDonough, the architect of what most considered a successful rollout despite the not-unexpected playoff miss, announced a parting of ways by mutual consent. (McDonough was immediately hired by Atlanta United, which is joining MLS next season.) Rumors of a power struggle with newly appointed Chief Soccer officer Armando Carneiro followed and three weeks later, Carneiro, Benfica's former academy director, stepped down for "personal reasons."
"It would be naïve of me to think that people on the outside weren't wondering 'What the hell is going on down there?' said Rawlins. Details remain murky but Rawlins, who assumed the GM duties, insisted that now everyone is on the same page.
"I have a tremendous amount of respect for Flavio [Augusto da Silva, the Brazilian billionaire and OCSC's majority investor] and vice versa, and we worked really well together," Rawlings said. "We have a very good working relationship as a board."
Said Heath: "It was a very bold decision from ownership to say 'We might have got this one wrong, let's change it back and go back to what's got us to where we are.'"
Now the focus is on the field and on the future. The club will move into a new stadium and state-of-the-art training facility in 2017. It bolstered its roster this offseason by adding former AC Milan midfielder Antonio Nocerino and ex-Real Madrid forward Julio Baptista to a roster that already included Ballon d'Or winner Kaka. They also added MLS experience in longtime New England Revolution fullback Kevin Alston and welcome back Canadian striker Cyle Larin, who scored a rookie record 17 goals in 2015. (Heath has challenged him to net more than 20 this time around.)
They also now know what to expect.
"People think they know how difficult an expansion season is, but they have no clue unless they've gone through it," he said. "We've got more depth now, and we've got a year in now; we're experienced in what the league is going to throw at us."
They've adjusted accordingly, tweaking their approach to training and travel this season. A comprehensive offseason review highlighted another area needing improvement: discipline. The Lions were issued a league-high 12 red cards last season and played more minutes without 11 players than any team in MLS history.
"Some of the reds I thought were poor decisions from the officials but others were absolute stupidity on our part," Heath said, noting that players will be fined for picking up unnecessary cautions and expulsions this year.
Meantime, the new recruits seem to be fitting in. "One thing that surprised me when I came down here is how it's like a family," Alston said. "Everyone is close with each other. It's easy to communicate to people at all levels."
Nocerino joined on Feb. 18 and slotted into the team two weeks ago -- "Great personality, really infectious enthusiasm... you'd think he's been with us five years," Heath said -- while Baptista, who was signed on Mar. 23, is already sharing the secrets of his otherworldly physique with his new teammates.
Add it all up and Heath likes where his team is heading this year. "If we don't pick up too many injuries and, God willing, don't get too many suspensions," Heath joked, "Playoffs are the minimum requirement.
"I believe we were capable of doing it last year," he added. "This year, we need to do it. And once you get into the playoffs, who knows what can happen? Look at Portland last year. This is a results-driven business. But results can keep you in your job, too."