Many wide receivers in the NFL have a defined role in the offense that has a direct impact on the quality of statistics they produce. This can make comparing useful numbers like catch rate and yards after catch (YAC) difficult when looking at a slot receiver (e.g., Percy Harvin) versus a deep threat (e.g., Malcom Floyd).
Receiver A catches 65 percent of his targets and averages 6.0 YAC. Receiver B catches 58 percent of his targets and averages 4.2 YAC.
Is Receiver A better than Receiver B? That's not a given if Receiver A is catching his passes much closer to the line of scrimmage. Shorter throws are completed at a higher rate and lead to more YAC. Where the player catches the ball is very important in analyzing performance. The quality of the quarterback also has a significant impact on a receiver.
This is why Football Outsiders uses two similar metrics that utilize game charting to add context to a receiver's performance: plus-minus and YAC+.
Plus-minus estimates how many passes a receiver caught compared to what an average receiver would have caught, given the location of those passes. It does not consider passes thrown away on purpose or batted down at the line. Player performance is compared to a historical baseline of how often a pass is caught based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether the pass is outside or in the middle of the field. Note that plus-minus is not scaled to a player's target total.
Plus-minus says a lot about the quarterback's accuracy since it is based on the throw. YAC+ is much more about the receiver's skill to create yards after the catch.
YAC+ estimates how many yards after the catch a receiver gained compared to what we would have expected from an average receiver catching passes of similar length in similar down-and-distance situations. This is imperfect -- we don't specifically mark what route a player runs, and obviously a go route will have more YAC than a comeback -- but it does a fairly good job of telling you if this receiver gets more or fewer yards after the catch than other receivers with similar usage patterns. Unlike regular YAC numbers, YAC+ does not penalize players who catch a lot of passes at or near the goal line, where very few YAC are available.
We have these stats for every season since 2006, but the focus here is on the last three years to find wide receivers with notable performances in these metrics, keeping the quality of their quarterbacks in mind. The following is a look at five receivers who have not performed up to expectations.
For five underrated wide receivers, click here.
Note: Rankings for the 2012-14 period include 70 wide receivers with at least 100 receptions in the three years combined. References to single-season rankings are for wide receivers with at least 50 receptions in that year.
Dwayne Bowe, Cleveland Browns
Plus-minus (2012-14): minus-8.7 (59th)
YAC+ (2012-14): minus-0.2 (37th)
Bowe is not overrated in the sense that fans think he's really good when he's not. Bowe is overrated because teams keep valuing him as a No. 1 wide receiver when he hasn't had a standout year since 2010. That was the last time Bowe ranked higher than 28th in plus-minus and had a positive YAC+ number.