CHICAGO -- On the most unlikely completion of his NFL career, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams took a snap from under center at the goal line and rolled out to his right. He kept his eyes locked on receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, who was working to create an opening between himself and Green Bay Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon.
With Micah Parsons in pursuit just inches from his face, Williams flung a pass off one foot and delivered a 1-yard touchdown pass to the corner of the end zone. The way the quarterback threaded the ball in this tight window resulted in a pass that had a completion probability of 16.9%, according to Next Gen Stats, making it the most improbable of Williams' two NFL seasons.
It was the type of throw that left coach Ben Johnson in a state of amazement.
"There's that mix of 'oh my gosh, that's one of the most incredible plays I've ever seen in my life' type deal with him," Johnson said.
Williams' third-quarter touchdown sparked a second-half rally for the Bears in an eventual 28-21 loss at Green Bay. Chicago scored points on three of its four drives in the second half and was in position to do so again on the final play of the game. But instead of connecting with Cole Kmet in the end zone on a near identical concept that the Bears scored with against Philadelphia on Nov. 28, Williams underthrew the tight end and was intercepted.
The first loss for the Bears in 44 days told a story that has been consistent with Williams throughout his second season: Slow starts on offense juxtaposed with furious comebacks. And the need for more accuracy and consistency remains.
Williams completed 6 of his 14 passes for 32 yards in the first half with only one throw that traveled at least 10 air yards. He was off target on 42% of those attempts. It was a different story in the second half when 154 of Williams' 186 passing yards were generated. He connected on 13 of his 21 passes, threw two touchdowns and saw his off-target percentage dip to 12%.
"I think it just comes down to small details from me," Williams said of his second-half surge. "I think it comes down to footwork. Getting a rhythm faster.
"And then small details for us in the passing game, making sure everybody is where they need to be and communicating that properly, and just create the right mindset on those drives and going into the drives."
The growth Williams has demonstrated over 13 games shows up frequently in the same areas. His five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter/OT this season are tied for the second-most in the NFL. The fact that he was in position to extend that number to six speaks to how well he performs late in games with 12 total touchdowns in the fourth quarter (tied for the seventh most).
Where he's really excelling is with the use of play-action, which was the catalyst behind the Bears' passing game getting on track in Green Bay. Williams used play-action on a career-high 61.5% of his dropbacks, with 134 of 144 of his yards off play-action coming in the second half. He threw a career-high 42.9% of his passes on the run, including both touchdowns and the interception to end the game.
On the season, 33% of Williams' dropbacks have come via play action (third highest) and have yielded a 70 QBR.
For every throw that elicits an "oh my gosh" reaction from Johnson and Williams' teammates, there are others that demonstrate the work that needs to be done.
On the Bears' first third-down pass attempt, Williams had DJ Moore open over the middle and sailed a deep ball past the receiver. It was a throw that Johnson said Williams makes routinely in practice and was a well-run route by Moore.
"That was disappointing on that particular play," Johnson said. "Was good with the decision, we just left it a little bit high there early in the game."
Many of the issues within Williams' game center around his inaccuracy. His 57.8% completion percentage ranks 33rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks (the Minnesota Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is 34th at 56%). He's been off target on 22% of his passes (the worst percentage in the NFL) and his 90 off-target throws are 14 more than the next closest player (Bo Nix, 76).
The Bears' playoff hopes -- FPI currently has them at 61.9% -- rest heavily on Williams improving in this area.
"There's certainly some [throws] that you can talk about each week where you feel like guys are open and we can certainly give them a ball on time and give them a chance to run after catch and all that," Johnson said. "And that's something we're striving to do is combine both of those worlds to where we think we're gonna have a really good quarterback in this league, a really dangerous quarterback in this league, a really dangerous offense, a really good team for a long time when we're really able to combine both of those thought processes.
"We're not quite there yet. We're working diligently every day. I've said it every week, that you see growth in so many other areas that when that last little bit comes along, I think we're gonna be really pleased with where we are."