So here we are again, the weekend where New South Wales sit down to select a team having lost Game I of a State of Origin series. Over the last 10 years the team winning the series opener has gone on to lift the shield eight times, on six of those occasions that team was Queensland.
Also hanging over the Blues' heads is the knowledge that should they win Game II at the MCG, they face the prospect of a decider at the cauldron, Suncorp Stadium. Does Blues coach Michael Maguire and his selectors stick with the players who gallantly fought on to a 38-10 defeat, despite being down to 12 men, or should they make some key changes?
Firstly, they will have to name a new centre, with Joseph Suaali'i still suspended for the near decapitation of Reece Walsh. The two main contenders for the role are Latrell Mitchell, who had a recent blinder in the Rabbitohs' victory over the Titans, or Matt Burton, who was 18th man for Game I. Burton plays five-eighth for the Bulldogs, but has performed admirably for the Blues as a centre in the past.
Mitchell at his best is a lethal weapon, he plays fullback for Souths, but has a history of playing centre at this level and of being a game-breaker. Would Maguire view Mitchell as a risk, perhaps one worth taking? Burton would seem to be the safer option and his kicking game adds a weapon that could help the Blues at both ends of the field.
Bradman Best also returns from injury with the Knights this weekend and with a few strong performances under his belt will come into contention for Game III, should the Blues need a centre for the Suncorp Stadium clash.
The next consideration for the Blues is fullback, with Dylan Edwards, who was originally selected, recovering from the injury that ruled him out of Game I. James Tedesco stepped back into the familiar role and had a solid game under the circumstances, but lacked the sharpness in attack that Edwards could bring. Tedesco also missed a couple of tackles that he historically would have made and generally didn't do enough to prevent Edwards from having his well-deserved shot at the jersey.
At halfback, it was broadly acknowledged that Nicho Hynes was named for Game I due to injuries to other key candidates, including Mitchell Moses, who replaced an injured Nathan Cleary for the last two games of the 2023 series. Moses made a very impressive return from injury for the Eels two weeks ago, although he was less impressive against the Bulldogs on Monday.
Hynes struggled with the boot in Game I and didn't really stand out as the answer for the Blues in attack. He had a chance to impress the selectors against the Dolphins on Thursday night but put in a mixed performance in both attack and defence. It won't help that the standout memory of him from the loss to the Dolphins will be his missed conversion attempt to level the scores on fulltime.
A good game from Moses against the Roosters should see him replace Hynes, leaving a question over who should be his halves partner. The jury is still out over whether Jarome Luai is the ultimate answer at five-eighth, but he did enough in Game I to retain the position for this year. His game will be helped enormously by the inclusion of Panthers' teammate Edwards. Luai did a lot of headless chicken work in Game I, jumping around looking for something to open up in front of him. At the Panthers, Edwards makes the well-placed and timed runs that alleviate the need for Luai to look so lost. It is worth keeping Luai just to see if that combination translates to success at Origin level?
In the forwards, Liam Martin still hopes to be fit for Game II, despite missing this weekend for the Panthers with a foot injury. Making his return this week for the Rabbitohs is Cameron Murray, a ready-made replacement for Martin or any other back-rower.
With captain Jake Trbojevic only playing 26 minutes in Game I, due mainly to the Blues needing more mobile edge defenders to cover the loss of Suaali'i, it seems fairly obvious that Maguire had his bench mix wrong. Trbojevic is an 80-minute lock for the Sea Eagles, Isaah Yeo is an 80-minute lock for the Panthers and Murray is an 80-minute lock for the Rabbitohs. As good as Murray is, can he be squeezed into a team with Trbojevic and Yeo? And does the deeper problem already lie with playing Trbojevic at prop?
Payne Haas remains the standout player in the engine room for the Blues, but he needs a genuine front-row partner. Spencer Leniu was very effective from the bench in Game I, his running really sparked the Blues. He might be a better starting option in the front row, but then where do you put the captain?
It seems that the Blues need a genuine utility player on their bench, whether that be someone like Burton who can play in the halves and outside backs or a second hooker to emulate Queensland's success with Ben Hunt and Harry Grant. Api Koroisau had an ordinary game last week by his standards, but has generally been the best of a bad bunch at the Tigers. He finds himself at halfback this weekend, which would give him a chance to showcase his versatility.
Michael Maguire and the selectors definitely face some tough decisions this weekend. The Blues have a reputation for panicking after a loss, dropping players and throwing others into the deep end. But, there is no doubt room for some tinkering ahead of a must-win Game II in Melbourne. How much and with which players could be key to whether we see Queensland lift yet another shield.