"This team doesn't get selected over the last 24 hours, it's a collection of habits over the course of the year and what players have done in the past."
Billy Slater sums up his thinking in naming a 20-man squad most fantasy league super coaches would be thrilled with. As ever it comes with its question marks, eyebrow raises and exclamation points, as well as the inclusion of those certain 'made for Origin' type players. The axing of David Fifita is the biggest headline, not as seismic as the Blues call to drop James Tedesco, and neither will matter come Wednesday week.
Reece Walsh terrorised the Titans in a losing effort on Sunday, more than proving his fitness to at least enter camp Maroon, and hopefully into a blockbusting battle with grand final vanquisher and Blues debutant Dylan Edwards.
His selection was a given, as was Xavier Coates on one wing. Murray Taulagi wins the incumbency battle on the other, rewarded for consistency in an inconsistent Cowboys season and preferred to Selwyn Cobbo - who has been a little patchy on the flank in his short Origin career. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was the other given in the Queensland backline - aside from an error count, the flying Dolphin is in close to career best form. Valentine Holmes has played himself back into a jersey, defying whispers he was on the thinnest of selection ice with a few solid weeks as the Cowboys found some ugly wins over the Rabbitohs and Tigers. He's a proven performer at this level and a slightly older head in a youthful back five.
Tom Dearden is also a proven performer at this level, albeit in a sole 2022 decider appearance. He wins the race to the No. 6 jersey over Ezra Mam, on the back of a huge Round 12 performance against the Tigers. Believe it, this was a closer one than many may have thought. Dearden has been solid all year, and was a man possessed on the weekend (178 metres from 12 runs, 5 tackle busts). Mam has been spectacular in large parts of it. The familiarity with the setup, his unquestionable competitive lust and the whole 'made for Origin' thing have propelled Dearden back into maroon, with Mam to cool his heels. Fresh off a display against the Titans that showed the very best and glimpses of the worst, the 21 year old will benefit tremendously from the experience.
Daly Cherry-Evans incumbency and captaincy remains safe, and the forward pack laying the proverbial platform for him will have a slightly different feel to it. It's a tough and mobile pack; full of minutes, work rate and game breaking potential. Lindsay Collins carries the enforcer tag alongside 80 minute 'made for origin' tyro Reuben Cotter, who'll devour the stats in the middle. Jayden Su'a gets a widely expected Origin recall in place of Fifita, and based on his brutality, work rate and season-wide impact is definitely the right selection. Jeremiah Nanai is another Cowboy to have emerged from a poor period with his credentials intact. They oppose a similar pair of backrowers in Angus Crichton and Liam Martin, in what should be an enthralling edge tussle. Nanai's try scoring potential is the sweetener here (made for Origin, perhaps?). These two, alongside Pat Carrigan, will be expected to play big minutes.
Ben Hunt will start at hooker, a call that makes sense when you consider the potential of a fresh Harry Grant running around a tiring NSW ruck about half an hour into Game 1. Queensland wouldn't dream of working without their one/two punch dummy half rotation.
Cobbo could potentially consider himself unlucky to have not nabbed a starting centre spot given his output this year, but has wisely been picked as backline cover on the bench in a season decimated by injuries to outside backs. Smart yes, but also a risk. This skews the balance somewhat for the Maroons - pitching the Origin into that classic tightrope scenario. Moeaki Fotuaika is the only middle cover; upping the ante on the likes of Cotter, Nanai and Carrigan to carve out as close to 80 minutes as possible (while staying injury free). J'maine Hopgood gets his start, again benefiting from the axing of Fifita and rewarded for a bruisingly consistent start to his 44-game NRL career. Slater and the selectors are banking on this guy proving what they've long expected - that the 25 year old is very much 'made for Origin.'
Brendan Piakura joins Mam and veteran Felise Kaufusi on the extended bench - a smart call by selectors - proving no-one at either end of the age or experience spectrum has had a line drawn through their name.
It's form and combinations plus tried and tested, meets unproven and unknown. It's a classic State of Origin side, and the Maroons brains trust appear - this far out - to have got the balance pretty well worked out.
They'll just need a little bit of luck on the night.
QUEENSLAND MAROONS: 1 Reece Walsh, 2 Xavier Coates, 3 Valentine Holmes, 4 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow , 5 Murray Taulagi, 6 Tom Dearden, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans, 8 Reuben Cotter, 9 Ben Hunt, 10 Lindsay Collins, 11 Jaydn Su'A, 12 Jeremiah Nanai, 13 Patrick Carrigan, 14 Harry Grant, 15 Moeaki Fotuaika, 16 J'maine Hopgood, 17 Selwyn Cobbo, 18 Felise Kaufusi, 19 Brendan Piakura, 20 Ezra Mam.