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Numbers explain Novak Djokovic's dominance

AP Photo/Michel Euler

Novak Djokovic is the best tennis player in the world, and there isn't even anyone particularly close to his level. But there's still a major void in Djokovic's career: a French Open title. The top-ranked player in the world for the past 43 weeks, Djokovic has dominated in 2015, winning 95 percent of his matches and five titles, including the Australian Open. Against Rafael Nadal, "The King of Clay," Djokovic's numbers are far less impressive, but Nadal has battled injuries and has struggled on his favorite surface in recent months. As a result, this year looks like Djoker's best shot to join Rod Laver, Andre Agassi and contemporaries Nadal and Roger Federer as the only men with career Grand Slams.


Djokovic in 2015

Djokovic won the year's first major, the Australian Open (closing out both his semifinal and final wins with 6-0 sets), and then won all four Masters 1000 tournaments he played in - Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Rome. He's won five tournaments this year, while no one else on the tour has won more than three. .

Djokovic On Clay (2011-2015)

The turning point for Djokovic's career came in 2011. Before that, he ranked a distant third behind Federer and Nadal, with one Grand Slam compared to 16 and nine respectively. Since 2011, he's been the most prolific winner on tour, with seven Grand Slams compared to five for Nadal and one for Federer. His clay-court record is phenomenal overall, but there's really only one opponent that matters: Nadal.


Nadal on Clay (2011-2015)

You can always count on Rafael Nadal to dominate on clay, especially at Roland Garros, where he's won nine of the last 10 titles. But Nadal faces a steep climb this year: he's out of the top five for the first time in 10 years and is just 17-5 on clay in 2015, with a 2-3 record against the top 10 on his favorite surface.

Djokovic Under Pressure (2011-2015)

The biggest hurdle to Djokovic's chances of winning the French is that he hasn't been as good enough at saving break points on clay. Players generally save a lower percentage of break points on clay than faster surfaces, but Djokovic's 61 percent rate is too low-especially compared to Nadal's 67 percent and Federer's 64 percent.

Djokovic in the Rankings

Djokovic isn't simply No. 1. He's No. 1 by an unfathomable margin. Earlier this year, he set the all-time record with a 5,460-point lead in the top spot.


Current Points Rankings

Djokovic's Odds

Want to bet Djokovic to win the French Open? You won't get rich. He's less than even money at 4-5 odds at the Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas. That means he's considered more likely to win the tournament than not. If you bet $100 on him to win the tournament, you'd only win $80. The second choice is Nadal at 4-1, followed by Andy Murray at 8-1.