After four teams clinched playoff spots Sunday and two more were eliminated, the eight teams that will participate in the first year of the WNBA's new postseason format are just about set. Only Washington still has the chance to play spoiler, knocking out 2014 champion Phoenix.
Still, entering the final week of the regular season, the order of those teams after the top three remains up in the air. In the new playoff format, that means a bye to the second round is still up for grabs. To help understand how that might play out, I simulated the outcome of all remaining games 1,000 times based on teams' season-long point differential (adjusted for schedule) and home-court advantage. Let's take a look at the team-by-team results of those simulations.
1. Minnesota Lynx
Average wins: 28.2
No. 1 seed: 100 percent
The Lynx effectively clinched the first seed by beating Los Angeles in their tie-breaking third and final meeting of the season Wednesday at the Staples Center. Sunday's win over San Antonio, in conjunction with a Sparks loss, made it official. The only remaining question is how much Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve will rest players in remaining games at Chicago and Indiana and home against Atlanta. Since all three teams are in the playoffs, the Lynx's strategy could have a ripple effect on other seeding.
2. Los Angeles Sparks
Average wins: 25.6
No. 2 seed: 100 percent
L.A. coach Brian Agler conceded the battle for the top seed on Sunday, resting starters Nneka Ogwumike and Kristi Toliver in a loss at Seattle. We'll see whether they play on Tuesday against Phoenix; Friday's finale against the Stars has no playoff implications. Because of the early finish and a bye to the semifinals, the Sparks will have more than a week and a half between games.
3. New York Liberty
Average wins: 22.2
No. 3 seed: 100 percent
Playing without starting guard Tanisha Wright and key reserve Kiah Stokes, as well as backup guard Shoni Schimmel and more recently wing Shavonte Zellous, the Liberty have lost three of their five games so far in September. Fortunately, the lead New York built over the rest of the league before this month was big enough that the Liberty have already clinched third place and a much-needed bye to the second round.
4. Indiana Fever
Average wins: 17.4
No. 4 seed: 54.5 percent
No. 5 seed: 25.5 percent
No. 6 seed: 17.3 percent
No. 7 seed: 2.7 percent
Here's where things start to get interesting. The fourth seed nabs the other bye to the second round and three teams still have a realistic chance at it: Indiana, Atlanta and Chicago, all currently tied at 16-15. The Dream are actually projected to fare marginally better over the last three games on average than Indiana by virtue of an easier slate, but the Fever's big edge is in tiebreakers. Indiana won the season series with Atlanta, Chicago, Phoenix and Seattle, and thus finishes atop basically any tie scenario.
5. Atlanta Dream
Average wins: 17.5
No. 4 seed: 32.2 percent
No. 5 seed: 42.0 percent
No. 6 seed: 15.8 percent
No. 7 seed: 7.1 percent
No. 8 seed: 2.9 percent
The Dream have the widest possible range of realistic outcomes, falling anywhere from a bye to the second round to being the lowest-seeded team in the playoffs in at least 2.9 percent of simulations. Atlanta wants to avoid ties if possible. The Dream only have the edge against Chicago among the teams in contention for the last five seeds.
6. Chicago Sky
Average wins: 17.2
No. 4 seed: 12.4 percent
No. 5 seed: 25.5 percent
No. 6 seed: 45.9 percent
No. 7 seed: 15.7 percent
No. 8 seed: 0.5 percent
Of the three teams currently tied for fourth, the Sky have the most difficult remaining schedule on paper. Chicago faces two teams -- the Lynx and the Liberty -- that have already clinched, and those games might not prove as difficult as they look in the simulation. The Sky also have to travel to Seattle to finish the regular season, a game that could end up deciding home-court advantage between the two teams in the first round of the playoffs.
7. Seattle Storm
Average wins: 16.1
No. 4 seed: 0.8 percent
No. 5 seed: 4.9 percent
No. 6 seed: 16.8 percent
No. 7 seed: 57.4 percent
No. 8 seed: 20.1 percent
Nobody is heading into the playoffs hotter than the Storm, who are 6-2 with a league-high plus-7.4 point differential since the Olympic break against a difficult schedule. While Seattle took advantage of a short-handed L.A. squad in an 18-point win Sunday, the Storm have won as many road games in five attempts since the break as in 11 road games before it (three apiece). That's allowed Seattle to go from scrapping just to make the playoffs to a better than 1-in-5 chance of hosting a first-round game.
8. Phoenix Mercury
Average wins: 15.5
No. 4 seed: 0.1 percent
No. 5 seed: 2.1 percent
No. 6 seed: 4.2 percent
No. 7 seed: 17.1 percent
No. 8 seed: 75.9 percent
Lottery: 0.6 percent
While the Mercury haven't yet clinched a playoff spot, a lot would have to go wrong for them to end a disappointing season in the lottery. The bigger question is whether Phoenix can climb out of the eighth seed. That would require the Mercury beating the Storm in a crucial matchup Thursday night in Phoenix. Seattle would still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of winning the first two meetings between the teams, so the Mercury need to win out to assure the seventh seed (or better).
9. Washington Mystics
Average wins: 13.4
No. 8 seed: 0.6 percent
Lottery: 99.4 percent
Two games back with three to play, the Mystics are firmly in "so you're telling me there's a chance" territory. Their only path to the playoffs is winning out while Phoenix loses out.