The first of ESPN’s weekly regular-season Power Rankings came out Wednesday. Heading into Week 1, we take a look at which teams are the most underrated or overrated when comparing the Power Rankings to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Most underrated teams
T-1st: Indianapolis Colts
Power rank: 18th
FPI: 11th
FPI views the Colts as a well-rounded team that doesn’t stand out in any one aspect of the game. They are one of four teams to rank in the top 12 in FPI’s offensive, defensive and special teams ratings heading into the 2016 season. The Packers, Bengals and Chiefs are the other teams in that group.
T-1st: Los Angeles Rams
Power rank: 28th
FPI: 21st
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Los Angeles’ over/under win total at 7½. That number factors into preseason FPI and puts L.A. as more of a middle-of-the-pack team than one in the league’s bottom five. The Rams’ offense ranks 28th in FPI’s ratings system, but they also have the No. 6 defense.
T-3rd: Green Bay Packers
Power rank: 6th
FPI: 1st
It’s tough to call the No. 6 team in the Week 1 Power Rankings "underrated," but the Packers are the top team in FPI's rankings. Green Bay’s over/under win total is set at 10½, tied for best in the league. They have the No. 2 offense, according to FPI, and they are currently the FPI favorites in 15 of their 16 regular-season games.
T-3rd: Dallas Cowboys
Power rank: 23rd
FPI: 18th
The Cowboys are 10-23 over the past 10 seasons when Tony Romo does not start and 78-49 with Romo starting. Even after accounting for the injury that will keep Romo out multiple weeks to start the season, FPI has Cowboys at 18th, two spots behind the Giants and one spot ahead of the Redskins.
T-3rd: Chicago Bears
Power rank: 29th
FPI: 24th
FPI projections have Chicago’s season playing out at about a 7-9 record in 2016, one win better than their 2015 total and right in line with their over/under win total from Vegas at 7½. They have at least a 60 percent chance to win home matchups against the Eagles, Lions, Titans and 49ers.
Most overrated teams
T-1st: New York Jets
Power rank: 10th
FPI: 17th
The Jets have one of the toughest early-season schedules in the NFL. In the first six weeks they host the Bengals and Seahawks and have to go on the road to face the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers and Cardinals. We will know early on if the Jets are truly a top-10 team.
T-1st: Detroit Lions
Power rank: 20th
FPI: 27th
A seven-spot jump from the preseason Power Rankings to Week 1 may seem a bit generous for Lions team that enters the season with a below-average FPI rating in all phases of the game. They rank 21st on offense, 26th on defense and 29th on special teams.
T-1st: Miami Dolphins
Power rank: 21st
FPI: 28th
Similar to the Lions, the Dolphins rank as well below average in all three phases, according to FPI. Trips to Seattle, New England and Cincinnati in the first four weeks may cause the Dolphins to drop from No. 21 in the Power Rankings sooner rather than later.
4th: Washington Redskins
Power rank: 14th
FPI: 19th
Washington will be tested early when they host FPI's No. 5 team in the Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Redskins are the FPI favorite in just five games this season, with four of those games coming at home against division opponents or against the Browns.
5th: Philadelphia Eagles
Power rank: 25th
FPI: 29th
Only the Browns, 49ers and Titans rank lower than the Eagles in FPI's offensive and overall rankings. The same three teams are the only ones with lower over/under win totals than Philadelphia’s 6½ entering the season.