Matt Ryan's hot start to the 2016 season has helped propel the Atlanta Falcons into the top 10 in this week’s power rankings. They move up from No. 18 in last week’s rankings to No. 8 this week, the largest jump heading into Week 5.
Through Week 4, Ryan’s Falcons lead the NFL in scoring, yards, completion percentage, passing yards, Total QBR and offensive efficiency. Ryan leads the NFL in completion percentage, passing yards and touchdown passes.
One of the keys to Ryan’s hot start has been his effectiveness on intermediate and downfield throws.
As we noted Monday, Ryan completed 14 of his 16 pass attempts that traveled 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage in Week 4 against the Carolina Panthers. The 14 completions and 415 yards on passes that distance are career highs.
Ryan is completing 61 percent of passes thrown 10 yards or more downfield on the season. That is on pace to be a career high.
On passes that distance, Ryan ranks third in the NFL in completions and completion percentage, and second in yards per attempt. He has the second-lowest off-target percentage (22 percent) on those throws among players who have started four games this season. Only Philip Rivers (19 percent) has been more accurate on downfield passes than Ryan has been this season.
Ryan’s connection with wide receiver Julio Jones has been great on intermediate routes. Ryan and Jones have connected on 8-of-10 passes thrown 10-20 yards downfield with 217 yards and a touchdown. Jones is averaging 27.1 yards per reception and 14.5 yards after catch per reception on targets 10-20 yards past the line of scrimmage.
The biggest of those plays came on an 11-yard throw over the middle that Jones took another 64 yards to the house for a fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday. It was Jones’ second-highest yards after catch total on a reception in his career. He scored an 80-yard touchdown with 73 yards after catch in 2011 against the Indianapolis Colts on a similar pass over the middle from Ryan.
Avoiding another collapse
As great as the Falcons' offense has been, this team has been in this position before. Atlanta won each of its first four games and five of the first six in 2015, but finished 8-8. The Falcons made it as high as No. 3 in the power rankings before losing seven of their next eight games.
Since the start of the 2014 season, the Falcons are tied for the second-best record in the NFL in the first quarter of the season at 9-3. They are just 8-16 in the final three quarters of the season in that span.
Tough road ahead
It doesn't get much easier for the Falcons this season.
Atlanta is about to begin a two-game stretch where it plays on the road against the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Since the start of the 2012 season, Denver has the best home record in the NFL at 30-4. Seattle has the best home record in the NFC at 29-5.
The last five teams to play on the road against both teams in a single season lost both games, including the Arizona Cardinals in 2014. Arizona went 11-3 in all other games that year.
Denver and Seattle have allowed fewer passing yards on throws 10 or more yards downfield this season than Ryan put up on those throws on Sunday alone.