Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Fortenbaugh 1-4 (14-16 on season)
Youmans 1-3 (16-10)
Kezirian 2-3 (10-11)
Bearman 1-1 (7-6-1)
Clay 2-1 (7-5)
Preston Johnson 0-1 (10-15)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 43.5)
Johnson: This is as good of a buy-low, sell-high matchup as we will get this season. The perception of Philadelphia after getting blown out on national television Sunday night in Dallas is that of a team of the past. I still project the Eagles to be the better team and a favorite on the road in Buffalo (-1.3). I've been generous making my adjustments for the Bills during their 5-1 start, but in the history of the DVOA metric (defense-adjusted value over average), the Bills grade out to be the worst 5-1 team of all time. They've had the benefit of beating five of the league's seven worst teams.
The Eagles are still a top-10 squad in the NFL, and Buffalo isn't even in the conversation. I bet the Eagles straight getting the points, but I also used them in a six-point teaser with the only other game on the board that fits optimal teaser strategy through key numbers (Tampa Bay +8.5).