Below is the game plan for having an enjoyable and profitable bowl season -- by creaming your co-workers in the office pool.
It includes bullet-pointed information straight from Las Vegas sportsbooks, coaches' records in bowls, strength-of-schedule insight, statistical mismatches and more.
Please do not leak to office pool opponents. ...
Note: Statistical information from BetLabSports on SportsInsights and TeamRankings.com was used in this article.
Early action report
In mid-December, an MGM casino guest placed six-figure bets on Arkansas State, BYU, Mississippi State, Florida State, Louisville and Air Force. The gambler was described as a "house player," generally meaning a high-roller, but not necessarily a sophisticated sports bettor.
On Tuesday at the MGM, a sophisticated sports bettor placed a $5,000 limit bet on Auburn +4.5 against Oklahoma in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Limits will increase closer to kickoff.
Out of the first $7,027 bet at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on the Sugar Bowl, $7,000 was on the favored Sooners. Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but was only laying 3.5 at several shops as of Dec. 14.
The largest bowl bet placed at a William Hill sportsbook in Nevada as of Dec. 14: A $44,000 pop on Temple -13 versus Wake Forest in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27. Because of the big bet, which was placed Dec. 10, more money had been bet on the Military Bowl than had been bet on the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Alabama and Washington at William Hill.
Temple also attracted big money at the South Point sportsbook. "We took some big play on Temple," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. "Not sure how sophisticated it was, but it was big." The Military Bowl line had grown to Owls -14 at several sportsbooks as of Dec. 14.
Andrews believes Alabama would be a 7-point favorite over Ohio State in a potential national championship game matchup. "I've heard guys say higher, but I think 7 is a good number," Andrews added.
Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the SuperBook, thinks Alabama would be favored over Ohio State by somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 points.
Golden Nugget oddsmaker Aaron Kessler's projected lines for potential championship game matchups: Ohio State vs. Alabama -9.5; Clemson vs. Alabama -11; Washington vs. Ohio State -4; Washington vs. Clemson -3.
Alabama grew to as much as a 17-point favorite over Washington in the days directly after the point spread on Peach Bowl was posted at Station Casino. But as of Dec. 14, the line had settled back to Crimson Tide -16, with even action. Station's sportsbook director Jason McCormick reported 51 percent of the bets were on Alabama.
Six times as much money had been wagered on Alabama as had been bet on Washington as of Dec. 14 at the South Point.
Projecting a line involving Washington in the championship game is tricky. "You'd have to give Washington a huge bump from beating Alabama," Salmons said. "If Washington beats Alabama, no matter who they play, that line is obviously going to be less than 7. If they played Clemson, I think it would be somewhere around Clemson [minus] 3 and Ohio State [minus] 5.5, 6."
The SuperBook took a limit bet on Ohio State -3 versus Clemson in mid-December. "That was definitely sharp," Salmons said.
The SuperBook also took early action, characterized by Salmons as sharp, on Florida State +7, Stanford -3 and Pittsburgh -3.5.
The SuperBook opened Michigan as a 7-point favorite over Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl and quickly attracted respected money on the Seminoles, dropping the line to Wolverines -6.5. "Wise guys just wouldn't let -7 stick around," Salmons said. "That was surprising, because I'm pretty sure the public is going to be coming in pretty good on Michigan."
As of Dec. 14, 91 percent of the money wagered on the Orange Bowl at William Hill sportsbooks was on the Wolverines.
Michigan had also attracted the most lopsided action at the Golden Nugget.
William Hill took two $25,000 bets on Ohio State to win the championship at 4-1 odds. Each would net $100,000 if the Buckeyes win their second national title in the past three years.
William Hill also accepted a $6,400 national championship bet on Washington at 15-1, which would net $96,000, and a $10,000 bet on Clemson at 9-1 that would produce a $90,000 profit. The largest bet on Alabama was $5,000 at 11-2, which would pay $27,500 if the Crimson Tide repeat as national champions.
Temple, South Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin also had attracted more than 90 percent of the early money on bowls that had received early significant action at William Hill.
Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology took two $5,000 limit bets on North Carolina State the first week after bowl lines were posted. (Limits will increase closer to kickoff). "We need Vanderbilt," CG Technology's Jason Simbal said. As of Dec. 14, North Carolina State was listed as a 4-point favorite over Vanderbilt in the Camping World Independence Bowl.
LSU and Wisconsin also attracted early line-moving money at CG Technology.
In the first week since bowl lines were opened for betting at the MGM, six times as much money had been wagered on the Peach Bowl between Alabama and Washington as had been bet on the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl between Ohio State and Clemson.
Arkansas State, Houston, Southern Miss, Colorado, Stanford and Indiana had attracted limit bets as of Tuesday at Station Casino.
Southern Miss opened as a 3-point favorite over Louisiana-Lafayette, but was bet up to Eagles -4.5, creating Station's most-lopsided decision on a bowl as of Tuesday.
New Mexico, Southern Miss, BYU and Old Dominion had attracted the most action at Caesars sportsbooks.
Jeff Stoneback, assistant sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, estimates "80 to 90 percent" of the money wagered on bowl games is placed on the day of the game.
10-year bowl ATS and over/under stats
Underdogs are 172-170 ATS.
There have been 178 unders and 173 overs.
Underdogs are 126-216 straight-up in bowls.
Double-digit favorites are 21-25 ATS.
Double-digit favorites are 33-12 straight up.
The SEC is 55-38 ATS, by far the best mark of any conference. The SEC went 8-3 ATS in bowls last season.
The Big 12 is 32-44 ATS, the worst mark of any conference. The Big 12 went 2-5 ATS in bowls last season.
The MAC hasn't fared well either, going 16-29 ATS in the past 10 bowl seasons.
2016 non-conference straight up records
Big Ten: 26-8
SEC: 29-12
ACC: 29-13
Pac-12: 19-9
Big 12: 12-10
AAC: 19-17
Independent: 15-25
Mountain West: 15-23
Mid-American: 14-21
Sun Belt: 9-25
Conference USA: 8-32
Bowl records for coaches
Here's a look at how every coach has done straight up and against the spread in previous bowl games:
Note: Interim coaches are denoted with an asterisk (*).
Team and coach bowl notes
Alabama went 8-2 ATS versus bowl teams this season.
Nine of Alabama's past 11 bowl games have gone over the total.
Ohio State is 6-0 ATS as an underdog under coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes covered the spread in those six games by an average of 21.9 points. Ohio State would be an underdog in a potential title game against Alabama.
Urban Meyer is 39-9 ATS with more than a week to prepare.
Temple went 5-1 ATS versus bowl teams this season.
Temple is 12-1 ATS this season, the best mark of any bowl team.
Colorado State and Colorado are a combined 20-5 ATS this season.
Maryland went 0-7 ATS versus bowl teams this season.
Clemson went 3-7 ATS versus bowl teams this season.
Eleven of Pittsburgh's 12 games this season have gone over the total.
Ten of Ohio's 12 games this season have stayed under the total.
Seven of TCU's past nine bowl games have stayed under the total.
TCU, Boise State and Baylor are each 3-9 ATS this season, the worst mark of bowl teams.
Stanford has covered the spread in six of its past seven bowl appearances.
Kansas State has covered the spread in just one of its past eight bowl appearances.
Largest strength-of-schedule mismatches
Note: Strength of schedule is according to Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings.
Wisconsin (10) vs. Western Michigan (118)
Mississippi State (31) vs. Miami, Ohio (124)
LSU (13) vs. Louisville (70)
Colorado (8) vs. Oklahoma State (61)
Western Kentucky (121) vs. Memphis (73)
Colorado State (79) vs. Idaho (123)
Central Florida (74) vs. Arkansas State (119)
Middle Tennessee (132) vs. Hawaii (87)
Old Dominion (140) vs. Eastern Michigan (98)
Statistical mismatches
Colorado State's No. 6 goal-line offense vs. Idaho's 116th-ranked goal-line defense.
Michigan's pass rush vs. Florida State's pass protection. The Wolverines are second in the nation with 3.67 sacks per game. The Seminoles rank 109th in the nation in sacks allowed 2.83 sacks per game.
Michigan's 8th-ranked punt return unit vs. Florida State's 127th-ranked punt return defense.
Washington's 14th ranked punt return unit vs. Alabama's 115th-ranked punt return defense.
Louisiana Tech's offense is eighth in the nation in third-down efficiency. Navy's defense is 128th in third-down efficiency defense.
Utah is third in the nation in turnovers gained with 28 (17 interceptions, 11 fumbles). Indiana is tied for 120th in the nation in turnovers with 26 lost (17 interceptions, nine fumbles).
Boston College's pass rush vs. Maryland's pass protection: The Eagles rank ninth in the nation in sacks per game (3.25). The Terrapins surrendered 41 sacks this season, 3.42 per game (121st in nation). Only one power-conference team (Arizona State) allowed more sacks.
North Carolina State's NFL-bound defensive end Bradley Chubb's 21 tackles for loss is second nationally, and given Vandy's struggles on the offensive line (7.2 percent sack rate, 12th in SEC) it should be a prime opportunity for Chubb to pad his stats.
Oklahoma State, Indiana and Nebraska each allowed three blocked punts this season. Only UNLV allowed more.
Baylor committed 9.83 penalties per game, nearly 1.6 more than any other team. Boise State, the Bears' opponent in the Cactus Bowl, is one least penalized teams in the nation, ranking 11th nationally in penalties per game.
South Florida's No. 5-ranked rushing offense vs. South Carolina's 89th-ranked rushing defense.
Eastern Michigan's No. 19th-ranked goal-line offense vs. Old Dominion 100th-ranked goal-line defense.
Colorado's pass rush vs. Oklahoma State's pass protection. The Buffaloes recorded 2.69 sacks per game, good for third in the Pac-12 and 25th in the nation. Oklahoma State is 105th in sacks allowed, surrendering 2.56 per game.
Air Force's No. 3-ranked rushing offense vs. South Alabama's 98th-ranked rushing defense.
Odds and ends
The point spread on the Hawaii Bowl between Middle Tennessee and Hawaii had not been posted as of Dec. 13. Middle Tennessee starting QB Brent Stockstill suffered a broken collarbone in an early November loss to Texas-San Antonio and did not play the rest of the regular season. He has not, however, been ruled out of the Hawaii Bowl.
Average combined points in bowl games since 2011 is 58.7. The average posted over/under on this season's bowls is 57.35 as of Dec. 14 at the SuperBook.
The Memphis-Western Kentucky total quickly grew to 80 at the SuperBook, the largest of any bowl total as of Dec. 14.
Teams playing bowl games in their home state are 28-29-1 ATS in the previous five seasons (2011-15), not including the 2013 New Orleans Bowl between UL-Lafayette and Tulane, with both teams playing in their home state.