At least Trevor Lawrence and Kareem Hunt saved fantasy managers with TDs, even if they didn't hit the over on their respective rushing props. Got the game flow, but not the exact right result. Still, two out of five isn't bad.
Now I've got more room to improve in Week 8! Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm here to help you win in fantasy and at the books.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Pick: Dak Prescott OVER 238.5 passing yards (+100)
Prescott remains rostered in over 88% of ESPN fantasy leagues. His investors are clinging to a back-half comeback. While his Week 7 showing versus Detroit was better in real life (24-6) than fantasy (12.28 points), there were silver linings that glint at a brighter future.
First and foremost, Prescott didn't appear hampered by the thumb injury. He managed a YPA of 8.3, tossing two balls over 20 yards while additionally completing 76% of his passes. The fact that he was willing to mix in some deep shots while staying on target suggests he's returning to peak Prescott form. Since the start of 2021, Prescott has recorded a top-six completion percentage on balls thrown over 20 yards. He's pretty precise on short/intermediate passes too, having posted a top-five overall accuracy rating every year since 2019.
Volume is the biggest impediment to hitting the over on this prop. The Cowboys are 10-point favorites and the game has a projected total of only 42.5 points. But the Bears -- leaning into a full rebuild -- just traded away Robert Quinn. Chicago managed the 10th-lowest pressure rate even before dealing their best edge rusher. As a result, Prescott isn't going to feel a ton of pressure, which only figures to boost his passing efficiency.
Plus, with Ezekiel Elliott unlikely to suit up, the offense won't knee-jerk into hand off mode as automatically. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz will still get peppered. And Lamb's YAC ability always helps to pad his QB's stats, especially versus a Chicago defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch per reception. Prescott is a top-10 play this week. Don't overthink it.
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 41)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Pick: DJ Moore OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-117)
Cheers to the nearly three percent of ESPN fantasy players that scooped Moore after his 7-69-1 showing in Week 7. All the "GoT" shame to those not patient enough to have stuck with him. It's been frustrating but the numbers have been there for the SPARQ standout.
Moore has recorded a snap share of over 97.6% (WR3) and is running an average of 29.4 routes per game. He has also averaged nine looks over the past three weeks with red zone opportunities in back-to-back efforts. In his first game without CMC, Moore drew double-digit targets (10) for only the second time all season. Even with PJ Walker under center, Moore's arrow is pointing up.
Speaking of Walker, his matchup against the Falcons is not scary. Atlanta will be missing both of their top corners (Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell) this Sunday. Though, truth be told, the Falcons secondary had been struggling regardless, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs and a whopping 11 TDs to the position over the course of 2022.
Interestingly, receivers drawing at least seven looks have averaged over 92 receiving yards when facing Atlanta's CBs. That works out for Moore, who has seen no fewer than seven targets since September. Maybe all the pumpkin spice is going to my head, but I'm leaning into Moore's midseason ascent and have the Panthers' No. 1 WR gleefully ranked inside my top-20.
New England Patriots (-2.5, 40) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-125)
Damien Harris strained his hammy in Week 5. Despite initial reports that the injury would keep him out for multiple weeks, Harris returned to action this past Sunday. He recorded a snap share under 20% and touched the ball four times for 10 yards. Whether it was soft tissue issue, game flow or a combination of both, the effort was far from inspiring.
Stevenson, on the other hand, appeared in full control of the Patriots backfield. The second-year RB handled the ball 19 times, including eight grabs (on eight looks) for 59 receiving yards. Additionally, Stevenson averaged more yards before and after contact as a rusher. In fact, Stevenson managed 13.6% more yards per carry after contact on up-the-middle runs than his backfield mate, which sets up nicely versus a Jets squad that has struggled to limit efficiency versus those types of rushes.
Per LBM, New England holds a 13-point advantage as the No. 8 ranked run-blocking unit facing the Jets No. 21 run-stopping unit. That figures to work out in Stevenson's favor, as the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites in what's projected to be a low-scoring affair (O/U 40). The Oklahoma product deserves top-15 consideration this weekend.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 40.5) at Houston TexansSunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
Pick: Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-137)
Henry is so good that folks barely blink when Vegas posts a prop at nearly 100 rushing yards. He has cleared that number for three straight weeks. Regression will eventually happen ... but not against the Texans.
Houston is allowing a whopping 3.3 yards before creating initial contact versus opposing RBs (No. 29). When defenses have allowed Henry at least three yards of runway, he has rumbled his way to a 10.2 YPC average. He has also regularly owned the Texans specifically, recording 88 carries for 673 yards and seven TDs over his last three games against Houston (each over 200 rushing yards and including multiple TDs).
Given what Josh Jacobs did to Houston last Sunday, Henry should easily clear the above line while additionally posting elite fantasy numbers. He's the ESPN consensus RB2 heading into Week 8.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 51.5) at Detroit LionsSunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
Pick: Mike Gesicki OVER 2.5 receptions (-125)
Despite the team's struggles under center, Miami remains the eighth-most pass heavy offense in the league. When playing with a lead of at least three points, that number jumps up three spots (No. 5). Miami's pass-catchers should, therefore, earn plenty of opportunities, as the Fins are 3.5-point road favorites at Detroit this Sunday.
Gesicki has emerged as a top-three pass-catching option over the last two weeks, drawing seven looks in back-to-back efforts. He has also run 58 routes in that time (TE6), registering 27 routes per contest over the last month. He could do half of that and still hit the over this Sunday, as the Lions have allowed at least three catches to opposing TEs who have run a minimum of 14 routes in five of six games.
The Penn State product -- who has been used more as a slot receiver than anything else -- will never dominate in the red area. He's not a deep threat nor a YAC monster. But he is a serviceable safety valve in a plus matchup. Just a few easy to make check-downs (at a career low aDOT) and the over on this prop is a winner. It also makes Gesicki a top-12 streaming option in PPR friendly formats.
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