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          Can India win gold in the FIDE Chess Olympiad 2024?

          File pic of Dommaraju Gukesh (L) and Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP via Getty Images
          • Anish Anand
          Sep 21, 2024, 07:51 AM

          The Indian men's outfit have been the team to watch out for at the 45th Chess Olympiad in Budapest, Hungary, having won eight out of nine rounds (a draw in the ninth) and having taken a two-point lead at the top. The women's team have also been solid, winning seven of their nine rounds (a loss and a draw in the other two), which currently places them second behind Kazakhstan.

          With just two more rounds to go in the Olympiad, here's a look at both Indian teams' chances to win the gold medal in Budapest.

          How many points have India scored in Open and Women's section?

          The Indian men's team -- comprising of Arjun Erigaisi, D Gukesh, R Praggnanandhaa, Vidit Gujrathi and P Harikrishna -- have scored 17 points from nine rounds.

          India had a perfect winning run, scoring 16 out 16 before their draw against defending champions Uzbekistan on Friday, which gave them a point (a win gives two points). Against the Vladimir Kramnik-coached Uzbeks, all four individual matches involving Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, Vidit and Arjun ended in a draw, so the final score was 2-2 (scoring for individual matches: 0.5 for a draw, 1 for a win and 0 for a loss).

          The women's team -- Rameshbabu Vaishali, Harika Dronavalli, Vantika Agrawal, Tania Sachdev and Divya Deshmukh -- have scored 15 points out of 18.

          They were on top with a perfect 14 points out of 14 in the opening seven rounds but lost to Poland in Round 8 (1.5-2.5) before bouncing back with a crucial draw against the US in Round 9. Needing a win with black to ensure India stay in contention for the gold after trailing by half a point, Vantika played a brilliant attacking game to beat Irina Krush and draw the match 2-2.

          So, considering India's position and with just two more rounds left, both the men's and women's team are very much in consideration for the gold medals.

          Who are India's opponents in the next rounds?

          Indian men face top seeds USA in Round 10, which could prove pivotal. The USA, with top players like Fabiano Caruana, Wesley So and Levon Aronian, are ranked second behind India with 15 points.

          Like Uzbekistan, USA can prove to be a tough team to beat but for India, even a draw would not do much harm considering the two-point gap. A win against the USA will take India a lot closer to the gold while a loss would mean USA will go level on points with India with just the final round to go. A defeat for the USA against India will kill their gold medal hopes.

          The good news for India is they have already played with some of their closest rivals in the tournament, including Uzbekistan and (a Ding Liren - less) China, so they will not face them in the final round.

          For the women, the path to gold medal is a bit trickier and they cannot afford any more losses. They are up against China in Round 10, a tough opposition who have won three on a row now. China have 14 points, one less than India so a lot is riding on this match for both the teams.

          A win for India against China will more or less guarantee a medal and then they would hope Kazakhstan, who are on top with 16 points, slip up against Georgia (14 points), which will push their chances for a gold medal.

          A loss for India will push China above India and if Kazakhstan beat Georgia, it would mean India women cannot win the gold medal.

          How are the pairings decided in the Olympiad?

          The Chess Olympiad uses the Swiss system to determine the pairings. After the initial round, where the highest rated team is paired with lower rated team, pairings for the next rounds are based on the performance in the initial round. Teams who win are matched with other winners with similar points, and losers are done the same with other losers.

          The team with the most points take the gold medal followed by silver and bronze. Both Indian teams will know their pairing for the final rounds after the completion of Round 10 on Saturday (Sep 21). The final round, #11 will be on Sunday (Sep 22).

          Have India won Chess Olympiad gold before?

          Yes, and no. India have won gold in an online Olympiad held in 2020. In that event, they shared the gold with Russia after several Indian team members experienced connectivity issues due to a global outage of Cloudflare servers. Only two Olympiads were organised online, both during the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020 and 2021.

          But those are not considered for the official record books, and India are yet to win an over the board Olympiad. Their best performances being the bronzes they won in 2022 (at Chennai) and 2014 (Tromso, Norway)

          Standings after Round 9

          Open:

          1: India - 17

          2-4: USA, Uzbekistan, China - 15

          5-9: Slovenia, Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary, Armenia - 14

          Women:

          1: Kazakhstan - 16

          2: India - 15

          3-11: China, Armenia, Poland, USA, Spain, Germany, Ukraine, Georgia, Vietnam - 14