It is the biggest match in chess. The biggest moment in 18-year-old D Gukesh's life is almost here. As he aspires to be the youngest ever king the sport has crowned, standing in his way is the defending champion Ding Liren, who hasn't had the smoothest ride here since he became world champion last year.
Ahead of the big match, which begins on November 25, here's a brief overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and how proceedings could transpire on the board over the course of 14 potential games lasting three weeks.
Head to Head
Gukesh and Ding have only played three classical games against each other, and Ding has won two of them with the other being drawn. Ding will draw serious confidence from that, and even recently pointed to his unbeaten record against Gukesh when asked if he feared playing against the youngster.
Ding had an impressive win with black pieces against Gukesh earlier this year at the Tata Steel tournament in Wijk Aan Zee. It was a bit of a demolition. Gukesh sacrificed a pawn early while attacking Ding's queen side, but Ding saw through the strategy and took him on. Ding then dangled a pawn sacrifice back at Gukesh, which he initially ignored, but eventually took. From there, Ding took complete control of the match with decisive attacking moves to take complete positional superiority.
Who'll play what openings?
GM Srinath Narayanan told ESPN that 75-80% of the preparation time before such a match will be dedicated to openings, so it will be interesting to see if either player does anything out of the box. Gukesh, traditionally, hasn't had the strongest openings, but will have definitely been working on it with his second - GM Grzegorz Gajewski and the rest of his team.
From Ding's perspective, preparation once again is key, as it was against Ian Nepomniachtchi in last year's World Championship. Recently, Magnus Carlsen told YouTube channel Take Take Take that in last year's match, it felt like Ding had prepared seven specific openings for his seven games with white -- with it all being a mixture of central and flank openings.
Even Srinath notes that the games may progress into unique patterns, explaining, "If you see the players with the highest scores in tournaments, you will generally not find them in the highest in terms of accuracy or percentage of first choice moves of the computer. The reason is that the opponent in preparation can anticipate the best motions by the computer. And everyone is preparing using a computer these days. You look to find ways off the beaten path and in doing so, of course, your precision percentage comes down. It's just the accepted way of trying to increase your chances of winning."
Despite the possibility of some off-beat openings, it is likely that both players will stick to either 1.d4 or 1.e4, particularly Gukesh, with 1.d4 traditionally being one of his stronger openings.
What are their strengths?
Gukesh's strength is undoubtedly his calculations and the ability to draw out a win from seemingly deadlocked positions. It is a trait he possessed since his early days in the sport and has only become better with time. Srinath points to the example of the match against Wei Yi during the Chess Olympiad, where Gukesh was in a safe enough position, but the win still seemed a long shot halfway through the contest.
"The position was complex," Srinath said of that match, where he was the captain of the Indian team in the open section.
"Wei Yi made a positional strategic mistake around move 21, and from then on Gukesh was pressing. He had an extra pawn and then it became an endgame with two knights against a rook.
"Gukesh was the one who was always trying, who was always pressing and Wei Yi was defending. When Wei Yi made that mistake, around move 21 or something, Gukesh just took over from there," Srinath said.
That ability to dig out wins from deadlocked positions will be critical if Ding finds anywhere near his best form. At his best, Ding is one of the most solid players around, even though he hasn't been anywhere near his best over the last year or so.
"His solidity and stability were, I think, one of his biggest strengths," Srinath said, "and also his strategic understanding of chess. So, he was someone who was very difficult to beat, and also he could exert pressure on you without risking much."
A strong defensive base meant that Ding could play aggressive positions without risking much. A certain Mr. Carlsen would be familiar with that.
What are their weaknesses?
In terms of Ding's chess ability, his weaknesses have been in closing out winning positions in the last year. Carlsen said to Take Take Take that Ding will get opportunities, and that he expected the reigning champion to be the first to create a winning position in this match, too. If he does create that opening and then doesn't take it, the ghosts of his performances in the last year could come back to haunt him again.
���� World Champion Ding Liren about his team for the upcoming World Championship match: "As we are so close to the match, it's not an appropriate moment to disclose who is assisting me for the match. In the previous edition, I played with a lot more freedom and innovation, and I... pic.twitter.com/mMiakLAl7A
- International Chess Federation (@FIDE_chess) November 20, 2024
Despite not taking winning positions, Ding played well at the Olympiad, and showed signs of returning to his solid best, playing out a number of comfortable draws in a tournament where the Chinese team rested him for the match against India, where he was supposed to play against Gukesh.
According to Srinath, Gukesh is a pretty rounded player, but that there are always areas to be worked on, like for any player. While Gukesh's focus on openings will be a major part of his preparations, he'll also have to consider his issues with time-trouble in the endgame. In 2024, some of Gukesh's poor chess moments have come when he's been under time trouble. The loss against Alireza Firouzja at the Candidates tournament came under time trouble, while in Wijk Aan Zee earlier in the year, under time pressure, Gukesh played a three-fold repetition from a winning position, which resulted in the match ending in a draw.
If Gukesh can avoid the usual pitfalls and play to his strengths, Ding will have to counter with his absolute best. Else, the crown will be gone and the chess world will have the youngest ever world champion.