We've finally made it. Nearly 1,300 days after an announcement that "a sub-group of College Football Playoff's (CFP) management committee today presented a proposal to change the current four-team format to a 12-team event," and nearly 120 days after a breathless 2024 college football season kicked off, we've got our 12-team playoff, and it starts Friday night.
The inaugural CFP first round will take place in four storied locations: South Bend, Indiana; State College, Pennsylvania; Austin, Texas; and Columbus, Ohio. We've got the proverbial Helmet Games (Texas vs. Clemson, Ohio State vs. Tennessee), we've got a couple of major upstart stories (Indiana visiting Notre Dame, SMU visiting Penn State) and we've got wintry weather expected in three of four locations.
Aside from the fact that the quarterfinals will be in neutral sites instead of home stadiums, this is pretty much everything we could have hoped for. Let's preview the first four games of this new playoff era.
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Biggest plays for each team
Indiana-Notre Dame
SMU-Penn State
Clemson-Texas
Tennessee-Ohio State
Weather forecasts
One major issue with December home games: They're played in December! And with Midwestern/Northeastern teams hosting three of four games, things are going to get a little chilly.
The forecasts:
• South Bend: 29 degrees at kickoff, snow earlier in the day
• State College: 27 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff
• Austin: 61 degrees and sunny at kickoff
• Columbus: 26 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff
For now, it doesn't look like snow is going to play a role this weekend, but three of four games are going to get awfully cold.
Projections
A four-team playoff basically added one extra game to the docket. A 12-team playoff is a genuine tournament. Randomness and bracket busting will play a role, especially during a season in which the top teams are not separated by much (No. 1 and No. 8 in the SP+ rankings are currently separated by only 3.1 points). And heading into the first round, no one has a better than 20.4% chance of winning out, per SP+.