The divisional playoff round for the 2024 NFL season has four great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know. On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs take on C.J. Stroud and the Texans to get things started. Then the Commanders' Jayden Daniels tries to stay hot against the Lions. On Sunday, the Rams travel to Philadelphia to face Saquon Barkley and his Eagles. And finally, it's Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in Buffalo -- a showdown of MVP candidates for a chance to go to the AFC Championship Game.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to all four games, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X factor to watch, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. The ESPN Research team also provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Finally, three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let's get into the full divisional slate.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-KC | WSH-DET
LAR-PHI | BAL-BUF
(4) Texans at (1) Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: KC -8 (41.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans' defense sacked quarterback Patrick Mahomes only once in a Week 16 loss, even though Houston was tied for fourth in sacks this season (49). This week, the pass rush must come alive to give the Texans a chance for the upset. On the flip side, Houston's offense must flow through running back Joe Mixon -- if he plays. Mixon is listed as questionable because of an ankle injury. But the Texans are 7-3 when he averages more than 4.0 yards per carry and 2-3 when he doesn't. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs made their living on third downs during the regular season, extending drives 48.5% of the time, which was the second-best rate in the league. But the Texans had one of the best third-down defenses, giving up conversions only 35.9% of the time. The Chiefs converted seven of 13 tries (54%) against the Texans in Week 16, which is a reason they won 27-19. They'll need that same success again. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Houston's C.J. Stroud (23) will be the youngest starting quarterback to face a defending Super Bowl champion in the postseason. The youngest to win in that situation was the Panthers' Kerry Collins (24) against the Cowboys in the 1996 NFC divisional round. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis will record at least 1.5 sacks. Karlaftis, who had 8.0 sacks this season, will be up against rookie tackle Blake Fisher, who has a below-average pass block win rate (85.6%). And he'll be trying to chase down Stroud, who has a higher than average 8% sack rate. -- Walder
Matchup X factor: Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. To upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Texans must disrupt the pocket and speed up Mahomes' internal clock. Anderson, who had 11 sacks and 30 pressures this season, will have opportunities to win off the edge in a matchup against right tackle Jawaan Taylor. -- Bowen
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 15-2 but are just 7-10 against the spread (ATS). The only other playoff team with a losing record against the spread is the Texans, who are 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round. Read more. -- ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Clay Martin's regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for most in the NFL. That trend should be of particular note to the Chiefs, who were flagged the second-most times (29) for offensive holding. The Texans had 22, tied for 14th most. -- Seifert
Kahler's pick: Chiefs 26, Texans 24
Moody's pick: Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Walder's pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 13
FPI prediction: KC, 62.7% (by an average of 4.6 points)
(6) Commanders at (1) Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -9 (55.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: If Washington wants to beat top-seeded Detroit, it must continue to have success on key downs offensively and keep the Lions' offense on the sideline. The good news for the Commanders is rookie Jayden Daniels has the NFL's best QBR on third and fourth downs (93.5) with 12 touchdowns to two interceptions. He has a perfect 100.0 QBR on fourth down, completing eight of eight throws for two touchdowns and seven first downs. -- John Keim
Lions storyline to watch: Lions running back David Montgomery says he is excited to return for the divisional round after sitting out Detroit's final three regular-season games because of an MCL injury. Montgomery says he is confident in the knee and "wouldn't be out there if I wasn't ready." In his absence, Detroit's other RB Jahmyr Gibbs has carried the load, with a career-best four touchdowns in the regular season finale versus Minnesota. But Gibbs told ESPN that he has "missed [Montgomery] for a long time" and he's "real excited" for Montgomery's return. -- Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: No team was better at racking up yards after the catch (YAC) than the Lions, who led the league in total YAC (2,669) and on a per reception (6.7) basis during the regular season. The Commanders were excellent at limiting YAC, giving up a league-low in total YAC (1,551) and ranking 10th per reception (5.1). -- ESPN Research
Jason McCourty and the "Get Up" crew discuss how Jayden Daniels can live up to the moment in a tough road battle against the Lions in the NFC divisional round.
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for at least 100 yards -- which will be only the second time he hits that mark -- in a losing effort. If the Lions continue their blitz-heavy approach, as they have since losing Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula), Daniels is going to put up numbers on the ground with some long scrambles. -- Walder
Matchup X factor: Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards this season, and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can set him up to flip the field. Look for the schemed shot plays over the top, plus the in-breaking concepts that create catch-and-run targets for Williams. -- Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Lions
Betting nugget: The Commanders-Lions over/under (55.5) is the highest in a playoff game since Super Bowl LV between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56). Read more. -- ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert's regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per game, third most in the NFL. That includes 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (16th most). -- Seifert
Kahler's pick: Lions 38, Commanders 30
Moody's pick: Lions 34, Commanders 24
Walder's pick: Lions 42, Commanders 28
FPI prediction: DET, 73.0% (by an average of 9.0 points)
(4) Rams at (2) Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (43.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: The Rams' defense gave up 314 rushing yards to the Eagles in Week 12, including 255 to running back Saquon Barkley, something that has stuck with the unit. Of the previous eight players to record 200 or more rushing yards against a team in the regular season and meet that team again in the playoffs, none ran for more than 200 yards in the second meeting, per ESPN Research. -- Sarah Barshop
Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles led all teams in the wild-card round with four takeaways in their stifling 22-10 win over the Packers. Philadelphia ranked 30th in turnover margin (minus-6) over the first five weeks of the season. Since returning from their Week 6 bye, the Eagles are tied for first with the Bills in turnover margin (plus-17). -- Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Rams had eight different players with at least half a sack in their wild-card win over the Vikings, which was the most by any team in a playoff game since individual sacks became official in 1982. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will record 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown after his quiet wild-card weekend (pages read: TBD). Brown's season has almost gone under the radar. He recorded 3.3 yards per route run in the regular season, the fourth-highest mark by any receiver since 2007 (minimum 200 routes). -- Walder
Matchup X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. I see matchup advantages for Smith as a multilevel target in Philadelphia's pass game. Smith can be schemed as an underneath option for quarterback Jalen Hurts from slot alignments, while also testing the perimeter on vertical throws against a Rams defense that gave up 57 receptions of 20 or more yards in the regular season, tied for fourth most in the league. -- Bowen
Betting nugget: The Rams are 4-1 ATS (3-2 straight up) in road playoff games under coach Sean McVay (since 2018). Los Angeles has averaged 25.4 points per game in those contests. Read more. -- ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Smith threw only three flags for roughing the passer in the regular season, tied for the second fewest. His crew was also relatively light on offensive holding, throwing the sixth fewest flags (33) in the league. The Eagles drew only 14 offensive holding flags from their opponents, tied for third fewest. -- Seifert
Kahler's pick: Rams 24, Eagles 22
Moody's pick: Eagles 20, Rams 18
Walder's pick: Eagles 24, Rams 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 65.4% (by an average of 6.0 points)
(3) Ravens at (2) Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BAL -1 (51.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: With the cold and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen might have to rely on their legs -- and they're the best at doing that at this point in the season. Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason history (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). But it could be difficult to run against the Ravens' defense, which has given up 239 rushing yards to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Bills, who have given up 306 rushing yards to QBs (11th fewest). -- Jamison Hensley
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills get out of the divisional round for the first time since the 2020 season? Though much of the focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting running back Derrick Henry will be key. The Bills will have to put up a better performance than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, the most by any player against the Bills since Sean McDermott became Buffalo's coach in 2017. This is a much healthier team this time around, with starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel corner Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the previous meeting. But as defensive tackle DaQuan Jones described Henry, "He's just a freak of nature." -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens had the exact same point differential in the regular season (plus-157), which was tied for first in the AFC. This is the seventh matchup in postseason history between teams that had the same regular-season point differential, and the first since Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. -- ESPN Research
Dan Orlovsky says both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are at the top of their games heading into the showdown between the Ravens and Bills.
Bold prediction: Jackson will rush at least 12 times for at least 70 yards. Baltimore showed a willingness last week against Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as much as needed in tandem with Henry. I think that will be their game plan for the entire postseason. And the Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, higher than the league average. -- Walder
Matchup X factor: Bills safety Taylor Rapp. His ability to run the alleys and tackle in space is critical to limiting the explosive play ability of Henry. Including the playoffs, Henry's 49 rushes of 10 or more yards are tied for the most in the league with Saquon Barkley. The Bills have to get Henry on the ground when he breaks past the second level. -- Bowen
Betting nugget: The Bills have been favored in 42 straight home games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The last time the Bills closed as home underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 against the Dolphins (+3). Read more. -- ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the past four Super Bowl crews and is among a small group of candidates to reprise that role this year in New Orleans. Of note for this game: Cheffers threw only two flags during the regular season for roughing the passer, the fewest in the NFL. -- Seifert
Kahler's pick: Ravens 28, Bills 25
Moody's pick: Ravens 30, Bills 23
Walder's pick: Ravens 31, Bills 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.3 points)