Once again, nobody in an NFL front office asked my opinion on any of the players in this year's NFL draft.
Of course, my only qualification to be a scout is that I know a few who do it for living. Does that count?
What I do have going for me is that I've covered enough college football that the games all run together. I've talked to coaches from around the country and gone back in and studied which players did what during their careers.
With that in mind, here's my stab at three players who may outperform where they're drafted this week and three players who may underperform where they're drafted.
Potential draft sleepers
Adrian Amos, S, Penn State
All Amos did at Penn State was get better every year. He started all 37 games over his last three seasons and moved from cornerback to safety last season under first-year coordinator Bob Shoop. Having that kind of versatility is always a plus, and it helps that Amos also has the size (6-0, 218 pounds) and the speed (4.39 in the 40 at his pro day) to go along with a keen mind for the game. One of the best things Amos did was clean up mistakes for a group that finished second nationally in total defense last season, seventh in scoring defense and didn't give up many big plays. Amos did lead the team with 10 passes defended, but his real value is that he makes everyone around him better. Shoop only coached Amos for one season at Penn State but said Amos had a unique skill set and was the most talented safety he ever coached. All those teams that pass on Amos in the first couple of rounds will be sorry down the road.
Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson
The Tigers' defensive line each of the last two seasons was as good as there was in college football, and while pass-rushing specialist Vic Beasley got most of the pub, the guy who made it all go was Jarrett. Clemson led the country last season in yards-per-play allowed (4.03), and a big reason why was Jarrett clogging up the middle and disrupting everything opposing offenses tried to do. His coaches at Clemson raved about his energy, toughness and fierce competitiveness. Sure, he's barely 6 foot tall and has short arms for a defensive lineman, which will cause him to drop on some teams' boards. But his quickness and ability to play both the run and pass will more than make up for the fact that he doesn't have ideal size. His coach at Clemson, Dabo Swinney, once said that Jarrett was "completely committed" to being a great football player, and that's what he'll be in the NFL, following in the footsteps of his father, former Atlanta Falcons linebacker Jessie Tuggle, and surrogate uncle, future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State
All NFL clubs are looking for value picks in the draft, and getting a feel for where the undersized Lockett will go is a crapshoot. But regardless of whether he goes in the second round, third round or even later, he's going to be a steal. All Lockett did at Kansas State was make explosive plays and produce -- over and over again. He earned All-America honors all four years he was at Kansas State and set 17 school records along the way as a receiver and return specialist. His size (5-10, 181 pounds) will scare some teams away, and while some might say he doesn't have elite speed, go back and watch how many times he made things happen in the open field and how savvy he was with his route running. There's a reason Lockett scored 35 career touchdowns, including 11 receiving touchdowns each of the last two seasons. The guy's a football player and will be an asset to some NFL team as both a receiver and special teams player. No question, it's a big man's league, but what's important is that Lockett plays big.
Potential draft risks
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
All the measurables are there for Collins, who has the size, length and speed to be an excellent cornerback at the next level. But at LSU, he wasn't even a full-time starter. Some of that is that the Tigers were loaded in the secondary. But if Collins is going to be drafted as high as some are projecting, it's worth questioning why his college career wasn't more productive. There are reports he failed multiple drug tests at LSU, although the reality is that he would hardly be the first player to go high in the draft with failed drug tests in his past. Perhaps more of a red flag is that he only started 10 games in three seasons and lost his starting job to true freshman Rashard Robinson in 2013. Collins regained his starting job last season when Robinson was suspended, so seven of Collins' 10 career starts came a year ago. In three seasons, he intercepted three passes and broke up 17 passes. The lack of depth at the cornerback position may be what ultimately pushes him up in the draft, but there was enough inconsistency during his college career to make you wonder if he warrants being taken in the first round.
Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
It would be foolish to question Dorsett's speed. He's one of the fastest players in the draft after running a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and even faster at his pro day. But for a receiver being projected to go in the first round, which would make him the first Miami player to be selected in the first round since Kenny Phillips in 2008, you'd like to see a little more consistency and a little more versatility as a route-runner. Dorsett has the explosiveness that all teams covet and averaged 24.2 yards per catch last season. But at 5-10 and 185 pounds, he's obviously not a very big target and still needs to prove he can be effective in other areas than just the deep passing game. Of his 36 catches last season at The U, 10 went for touchdowns. Six of those touchdowns, though, came against Florida A&M, Arkansas State and Cincinnati. Now, compare that to the Louisville, Nebraska, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Florida State games, where he combined for 12 catches and only one touchdown. Dorsett is a freakish athlete, for sure, but could be a stretch as a first-round receiver.
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Gurley was a monster at Georgia with his speed, size and ability to turn missed tackles into touchdowns ... when he was healthy. That's the catch, one that's impossible to ignore, particularly if he goes in the top 10 picks, which some analysts are predicting after Gurley received a positive medical report recently on his surgically repaired left knee. It's risky enough to take a running back in the first round, which hasn't happened in either of the last two drafts. But to take one in the upper half of the first round, even one as talented as Gurley, is a serious roll of the dice with Gurley's history of injuries. Gurley missed parts of eight games the last two seasons because of injuries. He tore the ACL in his left knee against Auburn last season and missed the final three games. Two years ago, he missed three games with a sprained left ankle after hurting it in the first half against LSU and sitting out the rest of that game. And in the opener against Clemson that season, he missed most of the first half with a strained quad muscle. It's easy to fall in love with Gurley's tape. He scored 44 career touchdowns, second only to Herschel Walker at Georgia. But it's unlikely you're going to get the Gurley you saw on tape until the 2016 season at the earliest, and even then, he has to beat the rap that he can't stay healthy.