Happy Birthday, Daniel Dopp!
It has been an absolute pleasure to celebrate you in person this week. I truly hope that all of your Born Day wishes come true ... except for a Lions victory. Because they're playing my Bears and I need this for Justin Fields (more than anyone, really).
Instead, let's celebrate with six winning tickets! And since it's you day, let's begin with a prop hand picked by YOU. It's certainly one Dallas fans have been wishing for as well.
Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 rushing yards (at Panthers)
Daniel: Pollard has really struggled this year from an efficiency perspective. Last year, as a complement to Zeke, Pollard averaged 5.2 yards per carry. This year, he's at 3.9. Add to that a mere two touchdowns and you'll understand why it's been frustrating watching such a talented running back take a step back in production. But this week should be different. This is Pollard's "Fix Me" game. as our friend Mike Clay, would say. The Panthers are allowing 131.9 rushing yards per game and have given up at least 75 rushing yards to six different backs. Game script should be a lot of running plays in the second half as the Cowboys, who are 10.5-point favorites, keep feeding the running backs to run out the clock. That's how this game should play out, so I'm buying the narrative and taking the over on 67.5 rushing yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 41.5 rushing yards (vs. Bears)
Daniel: Your first thought when you look at this line is probably similar to mine: that seems low. But you, like me at first, are probably doubting how stout this Bears run defense is. They're allowing only 76 rushing yards per game, second-lowest in the league. So why would I take the over? Gibbs has proved he's too explosive to overlook. He's hit at least 77 rushing yards in four of his past five games, and that includes some pre-breakout games. This Bears defense should have their hands full since they're currently getting +7.5 from ESPN BET as of this writing. This should be another game with a lot of running for the Lions in the second half. I'm not doubting this Bears defense, they are legit, I'm just trusting this Lions running game to keep doing what they've done to a bunch of teams.
Josh Jacobs OVER 56.5 rushing yards (at Dolphins)
Liz: I appreciate you giving the Bears some snaps in your ultimate hyping of Gibbs. A perfect example of your ability to lift everyone up, all the time. Just like Josh Jacobs. Since Josh McDaniels' premature exit from Las Vegas, Jacobs has been the engine running the Raiders' offense. While he hasn't been terribly efficient (though 4.3 YPC versus NYJ is all right) his volume (53 total totes over the past two weeks) has allowed for big production (over 95 yards in back-to-back efforts). Game script doesn't figure to be as favorable at Miami. However, the desire to play keep-away should provide Jacobs with at least 15 carries. That should be enough for Jacobs to register 60 yards in a contest that will test the new regime.
Jahan Dotson OVER 28.5 receiving yards (vs. Giants)
Liz: After clearing 16 fantasy points and finding the end zone in back-to-back weeks, Dotson's production came crashing back to earth. He posted a bagel in Week 10. Zero points! And on a day in which Sam Howell passed for over 300 yards. Here's the thing, though. What comes down, is likely to bounce back up. The odds of a rebound are all the more likely when facing a Giants secondary that's been decimated by injuries. Dotson is second on the team in snaps, managing a snap share above 84%. While his volume has been inconsistent, he has registered at least eight targets in three of his past four games. He also posted a 5-43-0 stat line the last time he played the G-Men back in Week 7. While Curtis Samuel's return certainly ate into Dotson's opportunities, I'm hesitant to overreact to the Penn State alum's more recent goose egg. I expect Dotson to flirt with 50 yards versus a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards (an average of 188 per game) to opposing wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill Longest reception OVER 28.5 yards (vs. Raiders)
Daniel: It's been two weeks since we've seen Hill and we're still on pace for a 2K-yard season. In Week 9 Tyreek was primarily held in check with only eight receptions for 62 receiving yards. With a bye in Week 10 and plenty of time to reflect on that Chiefs game, you know he's ready to get back on the field. Which is great because I'm ready to cash this red-hot Tyreek ticket that's burning a hole in my pocket. The Dolphins are massive favorites, and in five of their six wins, Tyreek has a catch longer than 40 yards. On top of that, this Raiders team has given up a 30-yard reception nine different times to wide receivers this year. With Tyreek still on 2K watch, I'm expecting a big game and taking the over.
Jayden Reed OVER 1.5 receptions (vs. Chargers)
Liz: Look at us with all of the receiver props today! Your spicy Tyreek take inspired me to complete the triumvirate with a focus on catches instead of yards (though I like Reed over 24.5 receiving yards, as well). The second-round pick has drawn 18 targets (just four fewer than Romeo Doubs and Watson, who both have 22) over the past four weeks. A crisp route runner with above-average speed and impressive after-the-catch ability, Reed has been fantastically efficient, converting 15 of those 18 looks. Reed has, in the process, gained Love's trust and offered the struggling QB much-needed stability. That figures to go a long way in a battle versus the Chargers. Los Angeles is giving up over 13 receptions per contest and let the Lions' pass-catchers convert on nearly 73% of their targets last week. As three-point underdogs, the Packers figure to be chasing points and Love is likely to lock in on the emerging rookie.