Can Luka Doncic win his first MVP award this season?
Here's why he can: Doncic is having the best season of his career. He is currently on personal-best pace in scoring (33.6 PPG), distributing (9.3 APG), 3-pointers (3.9 3PG), steals (1.4 SPG) and blocks (0.6 BPG). He has the Mavericks within a game in the loss column of first place in the Southwest Division, and winning their division is a key marker of team success for any MVP hopeful. Plus, he is flirting with history. No NBA player has ever averaged at least 33 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds per game for an entire season, so we can honestly say Luka is on pace to do something we've never seen before.
Here is why he can't: Joel Embiid is playing like a cyborg right now. Embiid had a historic streak of 16 straight games with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds from mid-November through mid-January, is currently on an active 21-game streak of at least 30 points scored, and he outdueled fellow MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic to the tune of 41 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds in a 5-point victory over the Nuggets last week. Oh, and Embiid just dropped a 76ers record 70 points against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs on Monday. After that game, Embiid's MVP odds improved to even money, meaning he is considered as likely to win as the rest of the NBA field combined. So, there's that.
But, there's a plot twist that re-opens the MVP door for Doncic, as well as the other non-Embiid candidates: the new 65-game rule.
In early October, the NBA set a rule that players "will be all but certain to be ineligible" for the major individual awards, including the MVP, if they don't play in at least 65 games. Embiid has already missed 10 of the 76ers' first 42 games this season, putting him on pace to play in only 62 games this season. Embiid has never played in more than 68 games in a season in his career since being drafted in 2014; he has only played 65 or more games twice. Embiid is also on record saying that he won't overly press to get to 65 games just to win another MVP, that his main goal is to be healthy the rest of the year.
According to ESPN BET, there are five players with odds shorter than +4000 to win MVP this season: Embiid (even), Jokic (+255), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+450), Doncic (+1000) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1100). If Embiid were to fall short of the 65-game threshold, the MVP race would be wide open.
Jokic, who has finished top-2 in each of the last three MVP votes and has two MVPs with a Finals MVP in that span, is in the midst of another MVP-worthy campaign. For the second season in a row, Jokic is a fraction of an assist per game away from averaging a triple-double on the season. He also has his Nuggets tied for the best record in the Western Conference, and his status as the defending Finals MVP holds some weight in the minds of potential voters as well.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a new name in the MVP debate, but he has earned his spot on the strength of his elite scoring and offense creation on a Thunder team that has surprised many by perching at the top of the Western Conference all season. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged more than 31 PPG for the second straight season, and currently leads the NBA with 2.2 SPG as well.
And Antetokounmpo remains a threat for his third MVP award as well. In his 11th season, Antetkounmpo is on career-best pace in scoring (31.2 PPG), distributing (6.1 APG) and field goal percentage (60.3 FG%). He also has the Bucks on top of the Central Division with the second-best record in the NBA. On the other hand, the Bucks just fired Adrian Griffin from the head coaching position in part because of team defensive struggles and have reached an agreement to replace Griffin with Doc Rivers. It is unclear whether this type of mid-season change in leadership will help or hurt the team's regular season outlook and thus Antetokounmpo's MVP chances.
So, there are reasons to believe that any of the top five candidates could win in what is shaping up to be one of the greatest MVP races in NBA history. And with Luka (+1000) and Giannis (+1100) having the longest odds among the top contenders, that potentially gives them the best futures value for betting purposes. Both would return at least 10-to-1 on a winning bet, but I think the circumstances of this season give both better than 10% chances to win.
Breaking down the other award races
We've discussed the MVP candidates. Now, let's take a look at the state of the union for the futures market of the rest of the NBA individual awards.
Rookie of the Year
Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-115)
Co-leader: Chet Holmgren (-110)
Longshots of interest: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+25,000), Brandon Miller (+50,000)
This has been a two-man race all season, and has now gotten to the point that ESPN BET only lists four rookies with odds at all. They may as well only list two, because even if neither played another game this season it seems likely that either Wembanyama or Holmgren would win the award.
Holmgren had taken over the "lead", according to the odds, for much of the last month before Wemby stormed back past him with his ongoing scoring spree. In his last 11 games, Wembanyama has averaged 24.9 PPG in only 25.1 MPG, an absurd point-per-minute pace. Wembanyama also leads the NBA with 3.2 blocked shots per game, leads all rookies in points and rebounds, and is currently averaging a 20-10 double-double.
Holmgren can't match Wemby's counting stats, but he is more efficient (his 64.0 True Shooting Percentage is tops among rookies). Holmgren is also fourth in the NBA with 2.7 BPG, and is the anchor for a top-10 defense (Thunder 7th in team Defensive Rating, 112.8 points allowed per 100 possessions). Holmgren is also fitting in/helping lead a successful team, with the Thunder on top of the Western Conference standings.
Sixth Man of the Year
Leader: Tim Hardaway Jr. (+120)
In the hunt: Malik Monk (+300), Jordan Clarkson (+550), Bogdan Bogdanovic (+850)
Longer shots of interest: Naz Reid (+4000), Bobby Portis (+6600)
This is the most volatile race among individual awards. During the past month, the entire leaderboard has changed, in large part because former favorites Austin Reaves and Immanuel Quickley have moved into starting lineups and may no longer qualify for this award. Hardaway is the only player that was top-4 in the odds a month ago that remains at the top for this update. He is on-pace for career bests of 18.2 PPG and 3.3 3PG as the main support for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in Dallas.
Clarkson, the 2020-21 Sixth Man of the Year, is the other player in the race that catches my attention. After a relatively slower start to the season, Clarkson picked up his pace near the end of 2023. He is averaging 19.8 PPG, 5.1 APG and 1.9 3PG in his last 16 contests for a scrappy Jazz squad that is competing for a spot in the play-in tournament.
Most Improved Player
Leader: Tyrese Maxey (-240)
In the hunt: Alperen Sengun (+300), Scottie Barnes (+1000), Coby White (+1200)
Longer shots of interest: Immanuel Quickley (+2500), Anfernee Simons (+7500)
Maxey has been the odds-on favorite to win this award all season, and in the last month his odds have gotten even stronger. He is almost certainly going to be an All Star this season, and is the floor general for a contending 76ers squad.
Sengun's odds have also improved in the last month, and he could flirt with All Star consideration as well, but the Rockets as a team have slid out of the top-10 in the West and Maxey's lead may be too much to overcome.
White and Quickley are both worth keeping an eye on, particularly due to changed roles in trading season. Quickley was traded to the Raptors to be their starting point guard, and will have more opportunity to produce and show improvement in the second half of the season. White played excellent ball when Zach LaVine was on his extended injury absence, and if either LaVine or DeMar DeRozan were to be moved prior to the Trade Deadline it could open up the chance for White to post major numbers down the stretch.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Rudy Gobert (-350)
In the hunt: Chet Holmgren (+1000), OG Anunoby (+1500)
Longshots of interest: Anthony Davis (+2000), Jaren Jackson Jr. (+4000), Victor Wembanyama (+5000)
Gobert has taken a stranglehold on this race as the biggest odds-on favorite for any of the individual awards. He has led the Timberwolves to the highest-rated team defense in the NBA (109.3 DRTG), and seems poised to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award.
Davis and last year's winner Jackson were both early season favorites, but have now fallen to long shots. Anunoby has risen in the ranks, particularly after his trade to the Knicks where he is the acknowledged defensive anchor on a team fighting for home-court advantage in the postseason.
The rookies, Holmgren and Wembanyama, have been fixtures in this race as well. Wembanyama has fallen to a long shot because, despite his leading the league in blocks, the Spurs team defense is atrocious. Holmgren, on the other, has moved up to the second-shortest odds to win the award due to his combination of elite individual defensive stats while leading the Thunder to one of the strongest team defenses in the league.