The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers are spending almost $300 million dollars to try to assemble one of the greatest regular-season rosters in MLB history.
Yes, the team that cruised to 100 wins a year ago added:
Shohei Ohtani, arguably the greatest individual talent in the history of the sport
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a three-time Japanese League MVP pitcher and NPB pitching Triple Crown winner,
Tyler Glasnow, who has struck out 30% of the batters he's faced over his eight-year MLB career.
Plus, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith are all still there. Not shockingly, this team is expected to be very, VERY good. However, with those expectations being set so justifiably high, is it wise wagering to bet on this team to meet or exceed the hype or is this a team that might best be bet against?
I would suggest either betting against this team or passing on them entirely. A win total of 103.5 is so high. The Dodgers could absolutely dominate the league again, all the way to 103-59 record -- and you've got a losing ticket. You have far more outs as the bettor going under that win total.
While it seems crazy to think this team won't make the playoffs, what sense does it make to lay -5000 on them making the postseason? Do you really want to tie up money in a futures market that long for such a small ROI? No thanks.
Again, a roster this talented and deep is very likely going to qualify for the postseason, but +1400 on them to miss out is certainly playable for a small wager. What if injuries wreck this team? What if San Diego surprises in the NL West? I'm not saying it's likely, but it's a far better wager to make than the alternative.
Similarly, betting -450 for them to win the NL West is outrageous. There's better value on them winning the NL Pennant (+170) and the World Series (+350), but they're still the favorite in both of those markets. If you're a Dodgers fan and want to get invested right now, sure. If you're aiming to bet as intelligently as possible, maybe wait and see if you can get a better price later in the season if they get off to a slow start.
Where it's likely more prudent to invest in this team is in the individual player markets, although the prices are still expensive, relatively speaking. Betts, Ohtani and Freeman rank second, third and fourth in the NL MVP market. Is it possible they cannibalize each other among the voters because the team is SO good? Yamamoto is the NL Rookie of the Year favorite and also has the fifth-shortest odds for NL's Cy Young Award.
Personally, I'll be trying to leverage this great team by betting them on a day-to-day basis. When they face inferior starters or bullpens, I'm going to load up on their team total and I'm going to stack the Dodgers lineup in DFS.
To sum it all up, the Dodgers are expected to be an exceptional team -- and they very likely will deliver on that expectation. However, that doesn't make them an exceptional bet. Everyone knows they're going to be great and, most importantly, that includes the sports books.