We've reached the point in the NBA season where the separation between the playoffs-bound and the lottery-bound teams just keeps getting larger and larger. That difference tends to be reflected in the spreads for each game, with games between two playoffs squads having small margins but those between a playoffs and a lottery squad sport double-digit spreads.
Of Sunday's six games, four are between two competitive (read: relatively healthy) playoffs squads, and all have spreads of less than five points. The only game between a playoffs-bound and a lottery-bound squad has a spread of 12.5 points, with the road team as the favorite. As always, in this space we'll continue to explore trends like this and dig deeper into Sunday's matchups to identify some good candidates to outperform expectation.
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 points over Milwaukee Bucks (-115). The Thunder remain the most often overlooked of the major contenders. They currently have the best record in the Western Conference, and the second-best scoring differential (+7.8) of any team in the NBA, trailing only the Celtics.
The Bucks, on the other hand, are perhaps the most volatile of the major contenders with up-and-down defensive efforts that keep them from consistently strong play. According to the BPI game predictor, the Thunder should be favored to win the game outright 51.5% of the time, so them getting points is enough to make them the pick here.
Zion Williamson over 25.5 points (-120). Williamson is coming off his lowest-scoring game of the season, a four-point effort on 2-of-7 shooting in a 23-point win over the Heat. He is in line for a big bounce back on Sunday.
After facing two big frontlines with strong defense in his last two games, the Magic (3rd-fewest points allowed to opposing power forwards) and the Heat (seventh-fewest points allowed to opposing power forward), on Sunday he faces a much friendlier Pistons defense that has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing power forwards (24.5 PPG). Also, prior to his last outing, Williamson had scored at lest 20 points in seven straight games while averaging 27.3 PPG.
Finally, with Brandon Ingram (knee) sidelined, the Pelicans could run the offense through Williamson more, even against a lottery-bound Pistons squad.
Indiana Pacers +3.5 over Los Angeles Lakers (-105). The Pacers and Lakers have both won two straight games, with the Pacers taking five of their past seven overall and the Lakers winning four of their past six. Both are playing relatively well, rounding into playoffs shape as they battle for positioning in competitive races for the bottom playoffs or play-in tournament seeds. According to the BPI game predictor, the Pacers should be very slightly favored, projected winners in 50.7% of this matchup iterations, so them getting points makes them the pick.
Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat over 202.5 points (-115). While both teams come into this matchup on a cooler streak while dealing with injury and player absences, they are still likely to put enough points on the board to cover this low total.
The Cavaliers were held to only 91 points in their last matchup, on the road against the top defense in the league in the Timberwolves, but prior to that game had combined with their opponents to score at least 205 combined points in 14 straight games. One of those games came against the Heat earlier this week, when the two teams combined for 211 points. According to the BPI game predictor, these two project to 212.7 combined points on Sunday.
Stephen Curry over 24.5 points (-115). Curry has had a relatively down shooting march, making only 35.1% of his 3-pointers, but he has still scored at least 25 points in six of his past nine games. He'll be facing a typically elite Timberwolves defense, but Rudy Gobert (ribs) is listed as a game-time decision after missing three of his past four games with a rib injury. Curry has only faced the Timberwolves once this season, with Gobert on the court, but he still dropped 38 points against them back in November.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons
3:00 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 43-27 (39-30-1)
Pistons: 12-58 (34-35-1)
Line: Pelicans (-12.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-800), Pistons (+500)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 11.3, straight up 84%, 230.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Knee); Brandon Ingram, (OUT - Knee)
Pistons: Jalen Duren, (GTD - Back); Quentin Grimes, (OUT - Knee); Simone Fontecchio, (OUT - Toe); Taj Gibson, (OUT - Hamstring); Ausar Thompson, (OUT - Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT - Hamstring); Stanley Umude, (OUT - Ankle)
Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers
3:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 38-32 (37-33-0)
Clippers: 44-25 (34-35-0)
Line: Clippers (-9.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: 76ers (+340), Clippers (-450)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 9, straight up 80%, 227.8 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Back); Kyle Lowry, (OUT - Rest); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee); Joel Embiid, (OUT - Knee)
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (GTD - Thumb); Daniel Theis, (GTD - Knee); Moussa Diabate, (GTD - Hand); Norman Powell, (GTD - Lower Leg); P.J. Tucker, (GTD - Calf); Russell Westbrook, (OUT - Hand)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
6:00 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 43-27 (33-36-1)
Heat: 38-32 (33-36-1)
Line: Heat (-4.5) Total: 202.5
Money Line: Cavaliers (+150), Heat (-175)
BPI Projection: Heat by 0.7, straight up 53%, 212.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Evan Mobley, (GTD - Ankle); Dean Wade, (OUT - Knee); Max Strus, (OUT - Knee); Donovan Mitchell, (OUT - Nose); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Knee); Jaime Jaquez Jr., (GTD - Ankle); Duncan Robinson, (OUT - Back); Kevin Love, (OUT - Heel); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
7:00 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 49-20 (40-28-1)
Bucks: 45-25 (31-39-0)
Line: Bucks (-2.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Thunder (+110), Bucks (-130)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 0.5, straight up 52%, 244.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: None reported
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Hamstring); Khris Middleton, (GTD - Ankle)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
7:00 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 36-33 (36-31-2)
Timberwolves: 48-22 (36-31-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-2.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Warriors (+110), Timberwolves (-130)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 2, straight up 57%, 231.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: None reported
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, (GTD - Finger); Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Ribs); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Knee)
Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
10:00 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 40-31 (38-31-2)
Lakers: 38-32 (31-39-0)
Line: Lakers (-3.5) Total: 240.5
Money Line: Pacers (+130), Lakers (-155)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 0.2, straight up 51%, 245.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: James Johnson, (GTD - Personal); Isaiah Wong, (OUT - Ankle); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Shoulder)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Achilles); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Taurean Prince, (GTD - Personal); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT - Foot); Colin Castleton, (OUT - Wrist); Christian Wood, (OUT - Knee); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT - Back)