We have two conference semifinal matchups Saturday. The game I'm looking forward to the most is Game 3 between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Mavericks handed the Thunder their first playoff loss of the season. Will Dallas' hot shooting continue, and will Kyrie Irving be more aggressive in Game 3 after taking only eight shots in Game 2? This game will be exciting, but there is one bet I want to place. Let's get into it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 42.5 points, rebounds and assists. With the Thunder looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Mavericks, all eyes will be on Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the charge. Many argue he should've been the MVP, and now, on the road in Dallas, he has the perfect stage to prove it. Averaging 28.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 6.2 APG in the playoffs, with an impressive shooting percentage of 48.0%, Gilgeous-Alexander has been a force. With a usage rate of 32.4%, he's capable of carrying the Thunder to victory and clearing this line.
Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 rebounds. He managed five rebounds in the first quarter against the Cavaliers in Game 2, but ended the game with only seven, leaving me scratching my head. Cleveland's surprising domination of the Celtics in Boston during Game 2 raised eyebrows. Despite the Cavaliers' inconsistent performance throughout the season, the Celtics won't underestimate them in a pivotal Game 3. Tatum has surpassed this line in four of his past five games, averaging 14.8 rebound chances over that period.
Jaylen Brown OVER 5.5 first quarter points. He's eclipsed this line in four of his past five games including Game 1 and Game 2 against the Cavaliers. In Game 2, Cleveland's aggressive defense focused on shutting down 3-point attempts, giving Brown more opportunities to drive to the basket. As the Celtics look to set the tone early in Game 3, his ability to attack the rim will be crucial. He's also exceeded this point line in an impressive 68% of his 77 games this season.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas MavericksWest Semifinals - Game 3
3:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 57-25 (46-35-1)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Line: Mavericks (-2.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Thunder (+120), Mavericks (-145)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 1.3, straight up 54%, 216.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Olivier Sarr, (OUT - Achilles)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Shoulder); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)
Boston Celtics at Cleveland CavaliersEast Semifinals - Game 3
8:30 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4)
Cavaliers: 48-34 (37-44-1)
Line: Celtics (-8.5) Total: 211.5
Money Line: Celtics (-340), Cavaliers (+270)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 0.1, straight up 50%, 211.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT - Calf)
Cavaliers: Dean Wade, (GTD - Knee); Jarrett Allen, (GTD - Ribs); Craig Porter, (OUT - Ankle); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)