Goaltenders are often considered the most important position in hockey, but when it comes to betting lines, are sportsbooks properly pricing their impact on the game?
Take the Edmonton Oilers as an example. When Stuart Skinner has been the starter, Edmonton has been favored 32 times. In those games, they have gone just 16-16 on the moneyline and an abysmal 9-23 against the spread. Despite being favored in all these matchups, the Oilers haven't consistently delivered.
Meanwhile, Calvin Pickard -- Skinner's backup -- has started as the favorite in 15 games. In those matchups, the Oilers are 12-3 on the moneyline and 7-8 against the spread. That's a sharp contrast from Skinner's numbers, suggesting that either Pickard has been underestimated or that sportsbooks are overvaluing Skinner's presence.
To identify which is the culprit, we'd need a deeper dive into line movement and confirmation timing. But at a high level, the results point to a clear inefficiency: when Skinner is in net, sportsbooks are pricing Edmonton too aggressively, meaning the Oilers have a betting weak spot when he is the starter. With a 9-23 record against the spread, betting the underdog to cover whenever Skinner is in net has been a profitable strategy.
In fact, we could extend this suggestion to say that whenever Skinner is in the crease, backing the underdog -- whether the Oilers or their opponent -- to cover has been a winning gambit;the Oilers have covered all three times when they have been underdogs with Skinner in the crease.
Tuesday's contest has the Oilers arriving in St. Louis as road favorites for the first game of a back-to-back set. Skinner has started, and lost, two consecutive games. We could see either goaltender: Skinner if the Oilers want to try to get their starter back on track and give Pickard the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday; Pickard if the team wants to switch things up to try to break the losses and give Skinner a confidence boost against the Hawks on Wednesday.
But we have two trends here: The Oilers' 9-23 ATS record with Skinner in net and the 12-3 record on the money line when Pickard is the starter. If Skinner is the starter on Tuesday against the St. Louis Blues, I'll take Blues +1.5 (-175), and if Pickard is in the crease, I'll take Oilers money line (-185).
Odds by ESPN BET.
Featured games
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues
8 p.m., Enterprise Center
Oilers (-1.5, +145), -185 money line
Blues (+1.5, -175), +155 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -135, Under +115)
While the Oilers have lost two straight, the Blues just broke a four-game losing skid with a win on Sunday.
The Oilers tried out a fresh line combination against the Maple Leafs on Saturday, with veteran Corey Perry joining Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the top line. It was a rather impressive trio, to be fair, with Perry collecting a goal. The line paced at more than 20 shot attempts per 10 minutes in their 9:56 of ice time at five-on-five.
This also separates Zach Hyman from the dynamic duo other than on the power play.
For the Blues, it was only 1:55 of ice time together on Sunday, but the secondary power-play unit was absolutely buzzing with four shots on goal and eight shot attempts. Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas are finding a home here away from the top unit.
All that said, some prop selections here could include:
Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 total points (+115)
Zach Hyman under 0.5 total points (+125)
Pavel Buchnevich over 0.5 total power play points (+450)
Robert Thomas over 0.5 otal power play points (+375).
Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
10:30 p.m., Honda Center
Stars (-1.5, +115), -230 money line
Ducks (+1.5, -135), +195 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -120, Under +100)
The Stars are also a road favorite in the late feature, rolling into Anaheim on a five-game winning streak.
The heavily favored Stars have risen to the occasion this season, posting a 12-7 record as a road favorite, in line with league-wide expectations.
The Ducks rank 28th in power-play goals allowed per game and the Stars have a new quarterback on the point while Miro Heiskanen is sidelined. Thomas Harley over 0.5 power play points (+375) is the prop to take.
Betting trends
While we're looking at starting goaltender outcomes available, let's see if some others stand out.
Lukas Dostal is 20-6 against the spread when the Ducks are underdogs, which is the case on Tuesday. Watch to see if he gets the nod against the Stars.
While they have been favored more often than not with Filip Gustavsson in the crease, the books have picked their spots well when considering the Minnesota Wild underdogs. They are only 5-8 on the moneyline and 7-6 against the spread in those 13 games. The Wild are road dogs against the Boston Bruins on Tuesday.
While Elvis Merzlikins has been profitable as an underdog overall this season against the spread (18-9), most of that profit has been at home (11-2). The Columbus Blue Jackets are on the road against the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday.
Andrei Vasilevskiy helps the Tampa Bay Lightning cover the spread more often when they are home favorites, as they are on Tuesday against the visiting Ottawa Senators. A $1 spread bet on every Vasilevskiy home start as the favorite would have gained $15.85 on 11 wins and lost $7 for a net result of $8.85.
The Florida Panthers visit the Washington Capitals on Tuesday with Sergei Bobrovsky expected in net. While the Panthers are 9-9 against the spread overall as road favorites, they are 6-4 with Bobrovsky in the crease.
While the Vegas Golden Knights are 8-6 as road favorites this season, they are only 3-4 in that situation with Adin Hill in the crease. They visit the smoking-hot Ilya Sorokin (six straight wins) and the New York Islanders on Tuesday.
The Winnipeg Jets have been underdogs with Connor Hellebuyck in the crease on only nine occasions this season and twice at home, but it's the visiting Carolina Hurricanes that are favored on Tuesday. The Jets are 6-3 in these situations.