Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 6, 2023, 05:40 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Derek Carty

Tuesday's top pitching streamer is Taijuan Walker (7% rostered in ESPN leagues). He faces one of the weakest offenses in the majors, the Detroit Tigers, and projects for one of the highest win probabilities of the day (42%), according to THE BAT X.
This could also be a day to go heavy on pitcher streaming, since James Paxton (12% rostered) and Clarke Schmidt (4%) are also widely available and project very well. Paxton gets a big park upgrade facing a mediocre Guardians offense, and Schmidt faces a below-average White Sox offense that takes a big park downgrade of their own.
If you roster Hunter Brown (70%), Lucas Giolito (87%) or Tony Gonsolin (74%), you should strongly consider keeping them on your bench today. Brown and Giolito face tough offenses (the Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively), while Gonsolin goes into 80-degree Great American Ball Park with double-digit winds blowing out. Giolito and Gonsolin both project for an ERA over 5.00 in these matchups, according to THE BAT X.
While the Dodgers and Braves project for the most runs today, the Giants are likely your better streaming target for hitters. More of their lineup ought to be on your waiver wire, and a matchup in Coors Field is on tap. LaMonte Wade Jr. (13%), Wilmer Flores (14%), Mike Yastrzemski (9%), Mitch Haniger (12%), J.D. Davis (9%), Brandon Crawford (2%) and Blake Sabol (1%) are all terrific choices. As an added bonus, opposing pitcher Dinelson Lamet is one of the easiest pitchers to steal on today.
If you're looking for home runs specifically, you should also take a look at the Angels, who face extreme flyball pitcher Hayden Wesneski at home in a top-10 park for homers. In particular, Brandon Drury (30%), Taylor Ward (60%) and Jared Walsh (3%) are worth streaming.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.3	Jesus Luzardo	L	KC	73.9%	-160	8	61%	5.9	2.1	6.1
11.5	Louie Varland	R	@TB	13.7%	150	8	55%	5.7	2.4	5.7
11.4	Joe Musgrove	R	SEA	83.7%	-135	7.5	52%	5.8	2.4	5.9
10.7	Logan Gilbert	R	@SD	95.0%	115	7.5	48%	5.6	2.4	5.7
10.4	Kevin Gausman	R	HOU	99.6%	-130	8	46%	5.7	2.8	6.5
10.4	Zach Eflin	R	MIN	74.5%	-178	8	45%	5.5	2.3	5.3
10.4	Hayden Wesneski	R	@LAA	3.2%	115	9.5	51%	5.4	2.3	4.9
10.2	Hunter Brown	R	@TOR	72.6%	110	8	54%	5.5	2.6	6.0
9.7	Mitch Keller	R	OAK	92.9%	-250	8.5	56%	5.5	2.5	5.5
9.7	Freddy Peralta	R	BAL	76.1%	-125	8.5	49%	5.0	2.2	5.4
9.7	Clarke Schmidt	R	CWS	7.5%	-170	8.5	53%	5.1	2.4	5.4
9.5	Taijuan Walker	R	DET	8.7%	-210	9.5	57%	5.2	2.3	4.9
9.5	Bryce Elder	R	NYM	83.4%	-170	9.5	58%	5.7	2.6	5.0
9.4	Tony Gonsolin	R	@CIN	77.3%	-195	10	56%	4.8	2.0	4.8
9.2	Kyle Gibson	R	@MIL	27.0%	105	8.5	51%	5.7	2.8	5.1
9.0	Tyler Anderson	L	CHC	28.9%	-135	9.5	49%	5.5	2.5	4.6
9.0	Shane Bieber	R	BOS	99.7%	-120	7.5	56%	5.8	3.2	5.6
8.9	Lucas Giolito	R	@NYY	86.9%	143	8.5	47%	5.5	3.0	5.9
8.2	Zack Greinke	R	@MIA	7.3%	135	8	39%	5.3	2.3	3.9
8.0	James Kaprielian	R	@PIT	0.4%	205	8.5	44%	5.3	2.6	4.7
8.0	Luke Weaver	R	LAD	1.2%	162	10	44%	5.3	3.0	5.2
7.2	Tyler Alexander	L	@PHI	0.1%	175	9.5	43%	4.7	2.4	4.3
6.8	Jake Irvin	R	ARI	0.5%	130	9.5	46%	4.9	2.6	4.1
6.8	Carlos Carrasco	R	@ATL	6.3%	143	9.5	42%	4.9	2.9	4.8
6.8	Tommy Henry	L	@WSH	7.4%	-155	9.5	54%	5.3	3.0	4.2
6.0	James Paxton	L	@CLE	16.2%	100	7.5	44%	4.6	2.8	4.7
5.4	Matthew Liberatore	L	@TEX	3.9%	130	9.5	55%	4.9	3.2	4.0
4.2	Dane Dunning	R	STL	24.2%	-155	9.5	45%	4.9	3.6	4.4
3.4	Dinelson Lamet	R	SF	0.2%	118	12	42%	3.9	3.0	3.9
0.8	John Brebbia	R	@COL	0.9%	-140	12	58%	0.9	0.7	0.9

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

With just under half of the league off yesterday, the bullpen report is light, with both closers we flag as possibly unavailable tonight being likely to get the call if needed.
Alexis Diaz struck out the side Monday night, nailing down the win for Andrew Abbott in his MLB debut, as the Reds blanked the Brewers 2-0. Diaz tossed 12 pitches, but he has pitched on back-to-back days five times already this season, four of which followed a first game in which he threw more than a dozen pitches.
After the Cardinals rallied in the top of the eighth to draw even with the Rangers at three apiece, Ryan Helsley was asked for a shutdown inning in the bottom of the frame. He did his job, fanning a pair while using 13 pitches. His effort went for naught after Texas walked it off in the ninth. Helsley had last pitched on May 28 when he was charged with his fourth blown save of the season, after blowing just four overall last season. Last night's clean frame could signal a return to the ninth inning, perhaps as soon as this evening, as Helsley has worked on consecutive days four times this season, three coming after games throwing more than 13 pitches.
My research demonstrates saves opportunities correlate best with team winning percentage and staff ERA. The ERA correlation is higher than runs scored and run differential. The Astros, Braves and Rays team ERA are unsurprisingly in the top five of the league. The Twins and Rangers are the other two. However, neither bullpen is even in the top 10 in terms of save chances. The study involves using season-ending numbers, which means if Minnesota and Texas continue to sport a low team ERA, their save chances should increase. The prescient fantasy manager can take advantage by rostering Twins closer Jhoan Duran (44%) and Ranger closer Will Smith (21.4%), as both should increase their rate of saves over the coming weeks and months.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	6/5	P3	Rest	Strk
Alexis Diaz	CIN	67.1%	12	12	0	1
Ryan Helsley	STL	62.9%	13	13	0	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF -- 24%) vs. James Kaprielian
Jack Suwinski (PIT, LF -- 7%) vs. Kaprielian
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 10%) vs. Gonsolin
Pavin Smith (ARI, RF -- 0%) at Jake Irvin
Tucupita Marcano (PIT, LF -- 1%) vs. Kaprielian
Lane Thomas (WSH, LF -- 19%) vs. Tommy Henry
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 10%) vs. Carlos Carrasco

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday

MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 56%) at Jesus Luzardo
Jose Abreu (HOU, 1B -- 58%) at Kevin Gausman
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 65%) at Gausman
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF -- 56%) at Joe Musgrove
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B -- 53%) at Freddy Peralta
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 76%) at Peralta
Tim Anderson (CHW, SS -- 51%) at Schmidt
Josh Lowe (TB, RF -- 78%) vs. Louie Varland
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C -- 62%) vs. Brown
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, RF -- 78%) at Schmidt

The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Prop of the Day

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros: Earned runs prop is set at 2.5 (-160/+120).

PREDICTION:

THE BAT sees Brown putting up 2.52 earned runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $28.01.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Toronto Blue Jays projected offense ranks as the fourth-best on the slate today.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BAT forecasts Brown in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent.
Gabe Morales profiles as a pitcher's umpire and is expected to be behind the plate today.
The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 16.1 mph in this matchup, the second-most favorable of the day for pitchers.
Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.4% GB% per THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre, the No. 10 HR venue in the league, today.