A run to the world championship. An MVP season. A daughter who captured the hearts of America. And we didn't even mention the picture-perfect jump shot (oh, yes we did).
It's safe to say Stephen Curry is trending as we head into 2015-16 NBA season. Before last season, everyone knew he was really good, but as Curry led the Golden State Warriors to their first title in 40 years, the world saw firsthand just how good he really is.
The Warriors point guard flourished in his first season under coach Steve Kerr, taking advantage of a new offense that moved the ball and created more open looks. Curry started the season fast and never took his foot off the gas, leading the Warriors all the way to the title.
Now, for the first time in several years, the debate for the top overall pick in fantasy basketball isn't between LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Selecting either with the first pick won't exactly elicit laughter -- they are still right up there -- but this season there are players like Curry, Anthony Davis, James Harden and Russell Westbrook who also warrant serious consideration.
But who's the best choice of the bunch?
Some of this comes down to the type of league you're in (head-to-head or rotisserie) and how many categories your league uses (five, eight or nine). Five-category leagues generally include points, rebounds, assists blocks and steals. Eight-category leagues usually add field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, and either 3-pointers made or 3-point percentage. Nine-category leagues usually add turnovers.
But generally speaking, in an eight- or nine-category league that uses a snake-style draft, there are several main factors I look at to determine the top pick:
1. Durability -- Even at a time when injured reserve spots are more standard across fantasy websites (which never used to be the case), having your top pick stay on the court the majority of the season is hugely important. This cannot be overstated.
2. Scarcity at position -- Does he play a position where there are many other good players, or is he far and away one of the top one or two guys at that spot?
3. Trending direction -- Has the player already peaked statistically, or can we expect more this season?
4. Team components -- Are there factors such as new players, injuries or new coaches who might change important factors such as playing time and usage rate?
Here's a look at last season's averages for James, Durant, Curry, Davis, Westbrook and Harden, and how they stacked up against one another. Below, we will go over these, and I'll explain why Curry is the player to draft with the top pick in standard eight- or nine-category leagues.
Now, it's important to point out that last season's numbers don't necessarily predict what each of these players will do this season. But they can reveal some things.
As you can see, Curry held the slight edge across the nine categories, while James finished last. Interestingly, Durant finished second despite his injury-plagued season, and Westbrook -- even after putting up mind-boggling stats with Durant out -- finished a tick behind his Oklahoma City co-star.
There are a lot of moving parts here, and unlike football -- where the top pick often comes down to determining which of the top running backs is the best -- we have several positions to consider.
Here's what leads me to Curry:
The fact that James ranked a distant sixth out of these six players last season, when he played some games without Kyrie Irving and/or Kevin Love and had an opportunity to accumulate additional stats, is discouraging. Throw in the fact that, at age 30, he has already played more NBA minutes than the likes of Larry Bird, Magic Johnson or Allen Iverson, and I see his numbers only dropping from this point in his career. Man, that's painful to write.
Then there were five.
Durant would be right there with Curry for the top spot if it weren't for him coming off his first major injury of his NBA career. Though Durant missed only three percent of his team's games over his first seven NBA seasons, proving to be very durable, I can't overlook that he's coming off foot surgery and a season when he played only 27 games. As he heads into his ninth NBA season, I'd consider him at Pick 3 at the very highest.
Then there were four.
Westbrook took his game to new heights without Durant on the floor, and in five-category leagues, he'd be my top pick because of his proficiency in point, rebounds, assists and steals, but his usage rate and numbers will come down as long as Durant is back on the floor -- they just have to. And in leagues where 3-pointers, turnovers and field-goal percentage matter, Westbrook really hurts you in those categories (especially the latter two). There are also durability concerns with Westbrook, one of the game's most athletic players, who often plays with little regard for his own well-being. He has played 67 games or fewer in three of the last four seasons. I'd consider him from Pick 3 on, but not at one or two.
Then there were three.
Harden is coming off a season that warranted serious MVP consideration. In fact, some argued he should have taken home the honor over Curry. He's durable. He plays at the thinnest position in the NBA (it's hard to find good shooting guards). He shoots 3s. He gets to the line as often as anyone in the game and shoots 85.4 percent at the stripe in his career. He rebounds. His assists numbers have risen four years in a row. And he gets steals. Listen, there is a lot to like. What makes me pass on Harden at No. 1 is the acquisition of Ty Lawson, who reportedly has worked hard to get his life back in order and, as long as he stays on the court, will cut into how often Harden has the ball in his hands. Remember, Harden did this damage last season with defensive-minded Patrick Beverley running the point.
Then there were two.
Davis is a popular pick, and it definitely takes guts to pass on The Brow after what he's done so far in the NBA. Virtually all of his numbers have improved for three straight seasons: points, rebounds, blocks, assists, shooting percentage, free throw percentage. There's only one reason I can't draft him No. 1, and you know what it is: his questionable durability. The 22-year-old has missed at least 14 games in each of his three seasons, and for as many games as he's missed, he's also been questionable for many more. That's a nightmare, especially in weekly leagues in which you have to decide before games start on Monday whether to roster an iffy Davis over another healthy big man who is slated to play four games.
That leads me to Curry.
Though his scoring and rebounding averages were the lowest among these six players last season, the Warriors point guard basically brings you all the positives that Harden does -- the 3s, the steals, the free throws, the durability -- but he does it without any question mark. There isn't a new player in the Warriors' backcourt with the potential to shake things up the way Lawson could affect Harden, and a second season in Kerr's system can only bode well for the 27-year-old Curry.
That's why he's the guy I'm picking No. 1 this year.