What makes a mid-season prediction "bold?" It usually starts with shying away from the top 10 players on the ESPN Player Rater. Instead of focusing on big names, it behooves owners to pay extra attention to upside.
You need to focus who has disappointed. Who has failed to match expectations. Those are the situations where a fantasy-boosting change can occur.
Which teams are packing it in for the lottery? Which teams are gearing up for a post All-Star run? Which teams just swapped coaches? Which teams have been hit hard by injuries? Which teams have a softer schedule down the stretch?
These changes in dynamics can result in a change of roles. Rotations. Boosts in playing time. What we're looking for is when those boosts meet upside. Which talented players are in line for an expanded second half role?
Those are the kinds of predictions than can make a difference down the stretch.
C.J. McCollum will clean up confusion at the two and complete the season behind only James Harden as the second-best pure SG in fantasy basketball.
The SG ratings are dominated by multi-positonal players that happen to qualify at the two. Curry. Lowry. George. Butler. Walker. Batum.
The true SG rankings boil down to three players: Harden, Klay Thompson, and C.J. McCollum.
Let's get the negatives out of the way. McCollum is only shooting 44 percent from the floor. He's too small to consistently defend the two.
But volume begets opportunity. Portland's backcourt is a case study in the power of usage rate in fantasy production. McCollum is currently at 26.7 percent. That's an All-Star level of possession. Playing on a team searching for a frontcourt offensive identity, McCollum is monopolizing the basketball. And if a very good player gets enough touches, possession can trump efficiency.
Where does that volume get extrapolated in fantasy? Well, if you're looking for an under-the-radar indicator of a shooting guard's rising value...follow the free throws. McCollum is crushing his previous career best (.699) at the line. Better yet, he's hitting 80 percent while upping his attempts (from 1.2 FTA in 2014-15 to 2.7 in 2015-16).
Nerlens Noel will finish the season averaging 2.0 blocks while shooting 65 percent from he line and land as a top-40 producer on the ESPN Player Rater.
Betting on Noel remaining healthy is a risky proposition. But for the sake of argument, let's assume Noel stays on the court. The next question becomes "can Noel and Jahlil Okafor coexist?" Can they become a reliable duo that can stay healthy and operate in space? Can they both be counted on to simultaneously provide consistent statistical production?
The Sixers can be a tough team to divine for fantasy purposes. For such a historically bad team, they produce a ton of noise. That's what occurs following multiple seasons of unashamed, unabashed tanking. But since Jerry Coangelo arrived, the Sixers have evidenced faint traces of cohesion.
All of the tanking has netted talent. Upside. Unfortunately, the upside is disproportionately weighted towards the frontcourt. Noel. Okafor. Oh, and Joel Embiid. A trade can't be too far off.
Noel is a center. So for this experiment to work, Okafor has to produce and defend at power forward. Maybe it doesn't work against small ball teams. But if I were in charge, I'd devote a big chunk of the rest of the season to seeing if a Twin Towers attack sticks. Which means seeing what I have in Noel as my night-in, night-out center.
Bradley Beal will re-establish himself as a top-10 shooting guard.
It's becoming a broken regular season record. 1. Beal follows up explosive playoff performance with injuries and inconsistency. 2. He battles stress reactions in his leg. 3. He plays with a minutes cap. 4. There are rumors of discontent between him and John Wall.
What's different this year? The Wizards have one of the NBA's easiest schedules after All-Star Weekend. More importantly...money. Beal is playing for a new contract. And Beal believes himself to be a max-level player. Look for him to gel with Wall and finish the regular season strong.
Nikola Mirotic will make a quick return from an emergency appendectomy and prove him the buy-low opportunity of 2015-16.
Mirotic is dealing with a non-basketball recovery. Terms like "appendectomy" and "hematoma" tend to scare the bejeezus out of fantasy ownership. But neither Taj Gibson nor Bobby Portis are invigorating on the box-score level. Thanks to a mix of injury and inconsistency, Mirotic remains a fantasy disappointment. But he possesses a unique statistical skill set. Mirotic is one of the rare players with true "1+1+1" ability: he can average a steal, a block and 3-pointers per night.
Danillo Gallinari and Will Barton will both finish the season as top-50 fantasy players.
They're hard to spot in a crowded Western Conference, but the Nuggets are quietly amassing team-wide fantasy value. They don't have as much top-shelf upside as the Timberwolves, but the Nuggets are getting some numerical traction thanks to the continued health of Danillo Gallinari.
Nikola Jokic is already breaking out. So what's missing? Consistent point guard play. We'll have to see if Emmanuel Mudiay can rise above his historically low levels of inefficiency.
Markieff Morris will remain a Sun and finish the season as the most valuable fantasy player on Phoenix's roster.
The statistical saga of the Morris twins appears to have returned to a new normal. Both brothers are again productive. They just now play for different teams.
When a player's value swoons due to emotional issues, a bounceback can sometimes be only a push of a button away. Take a look at what Pau Gasol has done in Chicago. Gasol's statistical value has always been linked to his mercurial mindset. Given a fresh slate, and more stability, Gasol has turned the clock back by around five seasons.
A month ago, Fantasyland was lighting candles for Morris to receive his own change of scenery. Now owners are praying Morris doesn't get traded before the deadline.
Even after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope returns, Stanley Johnson will average at least 28 minutes a game and remain a fantasy factor.
On a team not known for its depth, it was only a matter of time before Stanley Johnson received an extended opportunity.
I believe the 2015-16 draft class will go down as the deepest since the LeBron/Wade draft class of 2004-05. Multiple players will go down as "steals." But after Kristaps Porzingis, there hasn't been a player in the class as consistently undervalued as Johnson.
Sometimes versatility can be underrated. Johnson is presently listed as a small forward, but he is out producing Caldwell-Pope at shooting guard. In fantasy, multi-positional eligibility is usually accompanied by across-the-board production. Johnson's past-5 numbers (13.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 3-pointers, 0.8 steals) underscore his ability to deliver in every category outside of blocks.
Coach Stan Van Gundy has been effusive in his praise of the 19-year-old. Caldwell-Pope hasn't been a model of efficiency. As Detroit pushes for playoff position it's not hard to imagine Johnson becoming a dependable fantasy asset.