The fantasy basketball campaign is 170 days long. Throughout this long hoops marathon, we must navigate a series of pivotal roster decisions, and for some of them we'll want to seek outside counsel. If you have a crucial trade to consider or a meaningful waiver transaction in the works, feel free to use the hashtag #FBAMailbag on Twitter or email me at jmccormickespn@gmail.com to potentially find a solution in this weekly mailbag series.
#FBAMailbag Down big in Roto league, first year for keepers. Considering selling my non-keeper stars for keepers,what can I expect for KAT?
- HoopsHead_1987 (@HoopsHead_1987) December 8, 2016
Towns was drafted fourth overall on average in ESPN drafts this fall, so we'd want to net a sizable haul for such a high-end investment. Even though Towns is "only" 17th on the Player Rater at this stage after finishing seventh overall last season, his scoring, minutes, 3-point and assist production are all up from last season. Some regression, in shooting efficiency and defensive metrics, has lowered his ceiling a bit, but with a higher usage rate and a higher PER (player efficiency rating) already this season, you should demand a real ransom for this standout sophomore.
Since you are behind big in a rotisserie league -- which can prove daunting to mount a comeback -- it does make sense to market your top commodity for stellar keeper resources. If your league allows for multiple keepers, you can pursue a bevy of young assets in return. Names like Boston's Avery Bradley -- in the thick of his prime, ranked in the top 40 of the Player Rater and due heavy minutes in an efficient up-tempo scheme -- are ideal targets.
You'll want more than just Bradley, so maybe seek out teams that have multiple core keepers; names like Clint Capela of Houston, Dennis Schroder of Atlanta and, of course, Joel Embiid come to name. I do advocate being first to market your star assets in a league like this, as recognizing the reality of a last-place roto roster can serve to bolster your future, and you can have a number of your league's contenders bidding for Towns.
@_JimmyMcCormick #FBAMailbag is it worth keeping Noel for when he returns from injured list for philly
- Jason Gulden (@Jason84CubsNum1) December 8, 2016
Word is Noel has rejoined the team in New Orleans on Thursday and could make his debut as early as this weekend. On the mend from preseason knee surgery, Noel is an intriguing fantasy asset to consider, given he's still floating in some shallower/short-bench formats. The fade angles for Noel are somewhat clear; the team has a glut of frontcourt assets with Jahlil Okafor and Embiid claiming high-usage roles from the pivot, while Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric share minutes and touches from stretch-four roles. Noel is also a compromised offensive commodity, with just 10.5 points per game on a sluggish .491 effective field goal percentage over his two seasons.
Then again, the promotion points for Noel are even more impressive, as he's one of only three players in league history to average at least 10 points, eight rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals in each of his first two NBA seasons. The other two are these guys named Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. The steals are entirely unique, as we find below.
6'10"+ players to average 1.7+ steals in multiple seasons: Hakeem Olajuwon (10x), Tom Gugliotta (3x), Nerlens Noel (2x), David Robinson (2x)
- Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) June 3, 2016
Trade talks are also swirling around Noel, as he hasn't hidden his discontent with the team's talent traffic in the frontcourt. A trade wouldn't likely compromise Noel's fantasy stock, as any team that invests in him would likely value his rare defensive prowess, which is where his impressive fantasy ceiling comes from. This is likely the nadir of Noel's fantasy stock -- so yes, Jason, I'd advise hoarding shares wherever possible. Whether it's in Philly or an eventual new club, Noel is among the rarest defensive contributors to enter the league in a generation.
@ESPNFantasy someone offered me Chris Paul and Marc Gasol for Rajon Rondo and Demarcus Cousins. Should I accept? #FBAMailBag
- Paul S. John (@Paul_S_John) December 8, 2016
A big blockbuster is always fun to consider. Even with the grand scale of the commodities involved, I'd say yes to this deal. Rondo enjoyed a volume-driven season in Sacramento last year in George Karl's fantasy-friendly scheme, but has experienced a 41 percent dip in assist production and a 35 percent deflation in steals, as he shares the rock with ball-dominant peers in the Chicago backcourt.
Boogie is a fantasy monster, but he could also lose some upside with a potential trade. It's mostly about what your netting, though, as Paul is fifth on the Player Rater and Gasol is 18th. As ESPN's Zach Lowe shares below, Gasol is in the midst of a dime-driven pinnacle performance, which proves sustainable with Mike Conley ailing. You take a downgrade from Cousins to Gasol, but the overall profit margin with Paul is significant.
Marc Gasol on pace for one of the highest assist rates ever for players 6-11 or taller: https://t.co/TgeNglNIfb
- Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) December 7, 2016
@_JimmyMcCormick Do you think Kyle O'Quinn is going to eventually start for the Knicks? Time to drop Noah and add O'Quinn? #FBAMailbag
- Uncle Reed (@The_Reed_) December 8, 2016
Some fantasy hoops queries coming from Montana! This might read as pessimistic, but O'Quinn might not require a coaching decision to earn an uptick in exposure and usage, as Noah played only 42 percent of his games over the past two seasons. Noah has been an unequivocal disappointment in New York, but the fact he's playing just 21.7 minutes per game for the Knicks suggests his starting designation is merely semantics. We can't trust O'Quinn just yet, as the only valuable big on New York at this stage is Kristaps Porzingis. If Noah is ever injured for an enduring stretch -- a real possibility, given recent trends -- we can then discuss streaming O'Quinn in standard fantasy formats.
@_JimmyMcCormick @ESPNFantasy #FBAmailbag I was offered Nicola Vucevic and a player of my choice, (Curry, Wall, Jordan, AD) for Jimmy Butler
- Joe Cook (@joecook37) December 8, 2016
The "player of your choice" element is entirely intriguing, as you can net a double-double machine in Vucevic -- as he's 15th in the league with 16.7 rebounding chances per game -- and a complementary superstar. I would execute a deal, personally, as you can get a high-floor forward like Vucevic and your choice of three superstars (not including Jordan in this tier).
It comes down to your team needs. I personally would assume the risks of Anthony Davis' cathedral ceiling; as you immediately gain elite blocks, points and boards and, with the Magic's glass-cleaner, make a substantial shift in rebounding. If you need 3-point volume and steals, Curry is obviously there for you. I'm not a huge fan of taking on Wall here, especially with this pattern of sitting out the second leg of back-to-back sets. He does offer differentiation in assists, but I feel like you can get that elsewhere. A move of Butler for Davis and Vucevic bears some risk, but also some truly intriguing profit potential.