Mohamed Salah is coming off of an incredible week in which he recorded four goals and two assists in all competitions. These recent performances seem to imply that Salah is "back", but has he really returned to his must-start form of the past?
To answer that, we need to revisit Salah's incredible 2017-18 season that saw him push Liverpool to a top-four finish and a Champions League final, while personally picking up awards such as the PFA Player of the Year, FWA Footballer of the Year and many more.
Of course, those accolades came off the back of a campaign in which he not only lead the league in goals with 32, but also broke the previous record for most goals in a 38-match Premier League season. As for his club, the Egyptian led Liverpool in goals, shots (both on and off target), assists, and chances created. All of those stats combined would have seen Salah finish first in ESPN scoring last season with an almost 60 point gap between himself and Kevin De Bruyne in second place. Despite having such an incredible season, or perhaps because of it, some wondered if he could repeat the feat or if he was more of a one-season wonder.
To an extent, Salah's performance did look unrepeatable, especially through the lens of expected goals, a statistic in which he overperformed by seven goals. He also posted his best shot accuracy percentage in over five seasons with a rate of 46.5 percent. So, especially when it came to finishing, the Egyptian either took a massive step in his development or was just really lucky.
Well, those that watched him last season know it certainly wasn't just luck that saw him establish himself as one of the Premier League's elite players. While his goal tally may have been inflated somewhat, even had he not scored those seven extra times compared to xG, he still would have finished second in both goals scored and total points in the ESPN game.
That fact brings us to a very important truth: Salah does not have to match last season's output to be valuable in fantasy. So, with that in mind, what has he done thus far this season and how does he project for the rest of 2018-19?
In what some have considered a slow start for the Liverpool star, Salah has scored five goals through his first 10 matches which, funnily enough, is exactly as many as he had at this stage last season. Unlike last season, however, Salah is actually underperforming in expected goals despite also seeing a four percentage point drop in his shot accuracy. This could simply reflect his expected regression but, if last season's version of Salah was closer to the truth, he could be set for a return to the mean in a big way.
Of course, it's not only about goals in the ESPN game but, not to worry, Salah also sits top 10 in six other attacking statistics. When compared to last season, the Liverpool man has actually been level or better in 13 of our 15 scoring categories through the first 10 match weeks. As for weekly efforts, his 30.3 point total from Saturday was his third-best since joining the Reds, which shows that he's capable of reaching, and even surpassing individual performances from his breakthrough campaign. Having now thoroughly compared Salah to his past self, how does he stack up with the rest of the players in his tier this year?
At time of writing, Salah is a measly .9 points shy of Aguero for the most points scored by a Tier 1 forward (157.8). While he currently ranks outside the top five in league goals, he is certainly making up for it elsewhere as he leads his tier in assists, shots on target, chances created, and touches in the box. That balance will obviously suit him well over the season and maintain his status as one of the best forward options from week-to-week.
This week's match against Arsenal, for example, looks a lot more difficult on paper than it will likely be in reality. The London club has managed just two clean sheets thus far and Salah notched three goals and an assist against them last season. In ESPN scoring, the Liverpool man averages 24.6 points per game against Arsenal and, without the concerns over minutes that some of his Tier 1 contemporaries share, Salah looks a fantastic option for Matchweek 11.
While it's obviously not a guarantee that Salah will finish as the highest scoring player every week, he will surely be a high-scoring player almost every week, just like last season. So, to answer the opening question: Is Salah "back to his best?" The answer is no. He never stopped being his best.