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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox is Sunday's top-ranked pitcher. Quinn Harris/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 30, 2024, 03:10 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Hug watch?

          Every time SP Garrett Crochet takes the hill for the Chicago White Sox could seemingly be his last. The MLB trade deadline is about a month away and there are already rumors of teams looking to acquire the dominant southpaw. Crochet just turned 25 and still is under team control, but the White Sox are years from competing and would be dealing Crochet for maximum value.

          Earlier in the week, White Sox manager Pedro Grifol indicated that the club would being managing Crochet's workload. He's already at 94⅓ innings after logging just 25 total frames last season. While the slow down could be to protect their own interest, it could also be to help possible suitors with playoff aspirations.

          Either way, Crochet's fantasy managers should plan for fewer innings from Crochet over the second half. That said, with a 3.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 130 strikeouts so far, Crochet has already covered his draft day investment.

          On Sunday, Crochet lines up for another possibly stellar effort at home against the Colorado Rockies. The favorable matchup may seem ripe for aggressive prop bets, but the possibility of Crochet's outing being cut short renders taking the over on strikeouts or outs as a risky proposition. However, he's still a no-brainer for fantasy purposes.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • New York Yankees OF Juan Soto was a late scratch from yesterday's matinee against the Toronto Blue Jays after hurting his hand in Friday's affair. X-rays came back negative, leaving Soto's status unclear for today's finale of the four-game set in the Rogers Centre. The Yankees dropped two of the first three games.

          • Texas Rangers SS Corey Seager suffered an injury-plagued first half and could begin the second half in like manner. He was hit in the wrist by a pitch in the fifth inning last night, then left the game in obvious pain. The good news is initial X-rays were negative, but Seager is slated for a follow-up examination today. He's questionable for today's tilt in Camden Yards, where the Rangers will try to salvage one game of their four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles.

          • The Los Angeles Angels were again without 2B Brandon Drury last night. Drury hasn't played since July 18, as he has been battling an upper-respiratory illness. Earlier in the day, the club reported that SP Patrick Sandoval underwent successful Tommy John surgery last Wednesday. Sandoval's spot in the rotation will be filled by SP Jose Soriano. The Angels indicated that Soriano will return from the 15-day IL early this week. There is also encouraging news concerning OF Mike Trout, as he hopes to be back in mid-July. Manager Ron Washington said Trout has been doing cardio work, with the hopes of embarking on baseball activities soon. The initial timetable called for Trout to be sidelined until August after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.

          • The Milwaukee Brewers were without 2B Joey Ortiz for the second straight game yesterday. Ortiz missed Friday night with a sore neck but was originally in Saturday's lineup before being scratched. He's considered day-to-day.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays announced that RP Jordan Romano is again being shut down after he felt more soreness in his throwing elbow. Romano was placed on the injured list on June 1 and already had a setback earlier in the month. He is scheduled for an examination Tuesday with Dr. Keith Meister, whose specialty is the internal brace procedure (an alternative to Tommy John surgery). Closing duties will continue to be handled by RP Chad Green. RP Yimi Garcia has been playing long toss, but there has been no update on his timetable to return, and likely work into the saves picture.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Sorry West Coasters, Sunday features another 11:35 AM ET game with the Atlanta Braves hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates. In ESPN leagues, players from this game lock at this time, but you can do moves on the rest of your roster until their individual games start. However, the ability to pick up free agents locks with the early game.

          • The Braves will send SP Spencer Schwellenbach (6.1% rostered in ESPN leagues) to the hill. The rookie will be making his sixth MLB start. He's shown flashes of promise, but he's also been inconsistent, which is part and parcel for a rookie. Schwellenbach's 21.9% strikeout rate is below average, but his 14.0% swinging strike mark portends an increase in punchouts. His 6.1% walk rate is excellent, but his 1.28 WHIP is bloated by a high .325 BABIP. His 5.40 ERA is well over a run higher than its estimators, with a 61.4% left on base mark being the culprit. Schwellenbach is in a great spot to lower his ratios facing a lineup with the ninth worst road wOBA and the fourth highest road strikeout rate.

          • Sunday's top-ranked streaming option is Taj Bradley (23.0% rostered). The Tampa Bay Rays entertain the Washington Nationals in the finale of a weekend interleague series. Bradley started off June with a clunker in Camden Yards with the Baltimore Orioles parlaying four homers into nine runs over 3⅓ innings. In the ensuing four outings, Bradley recorded a 1.54 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 29 strikeouts in 23⅓ stanzas. The Nationals fan at a below average clip, but they tote the eighth lowest road wOBA into Tropicana Field.

          • Trusting St. Louis Cardinals SP Lance Lynn can be scary, especially on the last day of the head-to-head scoring period. Even so, those needing a last-minute pitching boost should consider the veteran right for his home affair with the Cincinnati Reds. Lynn's primary issue is the long ball and the Reds hit homers at a below league average pace away from the Great American Ballpark. They also strike out at an above average clip. The Reds will be without C Tyler Stephenson (paternity leave), and INF Jeimer Candelario is questionable after missing the previous four games with a hamstring issue.

          • Not much has gone right in Anaheim, with Los Angeles Angels SP Tyler Anderson being an exception. That said, his 2.63 ERA is artificially low as evidenced by a 5.28 xFIP and 5.37 SIERA. This is usually a warning to avoid a perceived solid hurler, but Anderson draws the tame Detroit Tigers lineup in Angels Stadium. Walks have been Anderson's biggest crutch, but the Tigers are one of the least patient teams in the league.

          • Betting tip of the day: As hinted in today's introduction, the White Sox will reduce Crochet's workload over the second half. In fact, they've already begun the process, as he has averaged just 88 pitches over his last two outings. Over the prior three efforts, Crochet averaged 99 pitches. Today's home matchup against the Rockies is a favorable one, with the visitors toting the ninth-highest road strikeout mark against lefties into Guaranteed Rate Park. But expecting double-digit punch-outs from the southpaw is aggressive, considering it appears Crochet's workload is already being reduced. I'm taking the under on 9.5 strikeouts (+110).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

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          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

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