If Watford can beat Aston Villa on Saturday, they will be 15 points above the bottom side. Benchmarking against the team at the foot of the table is not very aspirational, but it would be a very healthy cushion for a club that has finished bottom in each of their last two seasons in the Premier League.
Aston Villa are in terrible shape with five points from 13 games. And after the trip to Villa Park, Watford face Norwich and Sunderland -- two teams that are also struggling for form. In short, there is a huge opportunity over the next few weeks to create a decent buffer between themselves and the relegation zone.
But to do so they will need to put the disappointment of Saturday behind them and get back to the solid performances of September and October.
Quique Flores' recent comments illustrate the how finely poised the next run of games is: "The good news is that we are a competitive team, but the bad news is that we are in a very competitive league."
Defeat at Villa would be the third in a row, meaning Watford are officially on a bad run, and you only need to look at Swansea's recent form to see how quickly a side feted by pundits everywhere can come unstuck.
In many ways Villa epitomise the changing order of power in the Premier League. They are one of England's grand old clubs -- former European champions and ever present in the top flight since their promotion from Division 2 in 1988. They can thank Graham Taylor for that one -- he left Watford for the job at Villa Park when they'd just been relegated in 1987. Their famous Villa Park stadium has been overhauled but retains a spectacularly large Holte End stand.
But despite all the trappings of one of one of the country's 'big' clubs, Villa are struggling to find a place in the Premier League. They are no longer a sleeping giant -- that time has gone and giants are determined by Champions League football and spending power. But, they aren't an up and coming club full of enthusiasm, like Southampton, either.
Putting their inexplicable appearance in last year's FA Cup Final to one side, Villa have been irredeemably bad for far too long. Unfortunately for Watford, they are unlikely to be as bad this weekend as they were under Tim Sherwood's management. Indeed, there's a case to be made that all points won against Sherwood's team should be void and those matches should be played again -- it seems unfair to everyone else that haven't played them yet.
Having made such a woeful start, this could be the year that time catches up with Villa, but people have been saying that for several years now. Remi Garde's career suggests he is a competent manager, and he will be looking at the Watford match and seeing it as a must win. They've had a bad run, but the new manager is in post and after a dreadful performance at Everton last weekend, this is a chance to start their season again in front of their own fans.
Even so, Villa's confidence is surely brittle, and the slightest wobble could send them tumbling into despair. It is a brutal league, as Watford found out last weekend against Manchester United, and the Hornets should seek to capitalise on Villa's doubts.
Their ambition should be to make the home fans truly miserable, which means unsettling them early on and trying to strike first. It is time for Valon Behrami to return to the first team to freshen things up a bit. Ben Watson has been excellent and will be a very important player this season, but things were starting to look a bit stale last weekend.
Behrami will add some bite to the team. Nathan Ake must also start having quickly established himself as the outstanding left-back at the club -- remarkable progress for a player who endured a very difficult afternoon against Bournemouth eight weeks ago. Ake's inclusion should mean Jose Manuel Jurado is benched with Anya starting on the wing.
But, what about the bench? How can Watford make sure they have the options they need to respond, should they fall behind? Goals have been the biggest problem, and right now the most prolific striker in the squad is playing for the U21 side. Alex Jakubiak is scoring every week for Harry Kewell's team and has clearly outgrown development football, which will force Flores to decide what to do with him.
It seems likely he will go on loan again, hopefully to a Championship club where he can experience regular first team football at a high standard. But, until such a loan is arranged there is strong argument for giving Jakubiak a place on the bench. He may well be some distance off being a Premier League striker, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be useful if Flores needs to chase a goal with ten minutes to go. And it's not like any of the current squad players have made a convincing argument to be included.
The rawness of young players makes them unpredictable. They make mistakes and take up the wrong positions, but they often compensate for that with confidence and their direct approach. If you need a goal and want to unsettle the defence, a rookie forward that is full of confidence can do remarkable things.
It would also send a good message to other young players in the development team that Watford still provide a route into first team football for their home-grown players. Jakubiak isn't going to solve Watford's goal scoring problems on his own, but right now it seems there is little risk in giving him a chance.