Swansea face a daunting trip to Manchester United this Sunday knowing they'll have to match or better Hull City's result from the previous afternoon.
Motivation is a significant factor in football. Having drawn the Manchester derby 0-0 on Thursday night, United's goal remains the same -- to beat their City rivals in the table, still trailing by a single point. It's likely Sunday's match will be business as usual. Had United won on Thursday, would they have eased up a touch on Sunday, having overtaken City? Or had they lost, would their motivation have been greater to make up lost ground, or less because the points gap would have then have been stacked against them?
It's academic now, and heading into the match on Sunday, Swansea will also know Hull's result against Southampton.
History suggests Hull should lose. Swansea's relegation rivals have taken just two from a possible 48 points away from home since August. They last beat Southampton away in 1951. And a Hull loss should inspire Swansea more than any team talk -- it would open up an opportunity for Swansea to switch places, step out of the drop zone and have all the advantage during the remaining three games of the season, although perversely that might actually make things harder.
Swansea are always a better club when playing the underdog in any fight, even to a less established Premier League team such as Hull. Manager Paul Clement called last Saturday's match against Stoke a "must win," knowing that Hull would likely beat Watford (they did), and that his side would have to win to keep pace. His players duly responded with a 2-0 victory, their first win in six games.
Contrast that with a few weeks previously, after Clement's arrival had Swansea winning more often than not. The new boss joined with the club at the bottom of the table, and -- as the underdog -- they responded. Once that run of good results threatened to take the club out of trouble and they had the advantage over the other strugglers near the bottom, they imploded, losing 2-1 to Hull and beginning a six-game slide that now threatens the club's top-flight status.
All things considered, it would almost suit Swansea to simply match Hull's results right up to the last weekend of the season, hope Hull's opponents Spurs still have a shot at the title and beat West Brom to snatch safety at the last possible moment. A Swansea victory this Sunday and a Hull loss the day before would put Swansea ahead, but the following weekend, Hull get the luxury of Sunderland at home -- a game they will almost certainly win -- while Swansea host Everton.
It's quite possible that if the teams switch places at the end of this weekend, they'll be right back where they were again at the end of the next. That kind of flip-flopping would test the mental fortitude of any squad. Does this Swansea side have enough steel to handle this season's final twists and turns? The squad turned a corner with the victory over Stoke, but it's not unfair to say mental toughness had been lacking until then.
There are one or two factors that should give Swansea a little confidence. Swansea will head to Old Trafford knowing they have at least beaten United three times in the Premier League, twice at home and once away. A draw would be a reasonable result, although only if Hull don't beat Southampton. In Swansea's favour is United's congested schedule. With their opponents having played their strongest side on Thursday night, it is likely Swansea will get the benefit of a weakened United side on Sunday, although with weakness being relative to the overall strength of the squad, it will still be a tough game.
United also have more serious injury problems than Swansea, whose own troubles actually have helped recently as Jack Cork's absence paved the way for club legend Leon Britton to return to the starting lineup. The club captain played a huge part in the Swans' victory over Stoke and should figure again on Sunday, where his presence would help calm Swansea's nerves for a game which -- depending on Hull's result -- might well be another "must win."
If Hull do beat Southampton, then anything less than three points at United could spell the end of Swansea's Premier League adventure. Whether a Hull win on Saturday would provide even more motivation or just back-breaking pressure is up to Swansea, whose season will now be won or lost with the mind as much as the feet.