Two leagues will be rewarded with an extra place in next season's UEFA Champions League (UCL) based on performance in Europe this season.
Last season, Borussia Dortmund of the German Bundesliga and Bologna from Italian Serie A were the lucky recipients, with clubs in Germany and Italy outperforming those from England, France and Spain.
Now we've moved well into the knockout rounds of the UCL, UEFA Europa League (UEL) and UEFA Conference League (UCoL), we'll soon find out who gets the places this season.
The English Premier League is in a very dominant position, and it's looking excellent for the Spanish LaLiga too.
Here's how it works, and where all the leagues stand.
How does it work?
It's about the collective performance of all teams from each country taking part in Europe this season. The two leagues with the best average coefficient scores get an extra place.
Regardless of competition, each win is worth two coefficient points, a draw gets you one point, and you get nothing for a defeat.
If a match goes to extra time, the score after 120 minutes is used. So, penalties are not taken into account if the game is drawn, as they are used to determine the tie rather than the individual match.
The points gained by all clubs are added together, and that total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe in the season. That gives the coefficient average. For example, if a country has 60 coefficient points and seven teams in Europe, its score is 8.571 for the table (60 / 7).
The additional place goes to the first team in the league table outside the UCL places. So, in the Premier League it would go to fifth. It's a place on top of the regular allocation, so if a league usually has seven places in Europe, it will have eight next season.
So wins aren't worth more in the Champions League?
No, the coefficient system is essentially designed to assess the overall strength of leagues. Wins are the same in all competitions. Otherwise, it would be impossible for those leagues with few or no teams in the UCL group stage to move up the coefficient rankings.
However, clubs in the UCoL do play two fewer games in the league phase.
That said, a revamped bonus points system does give more weight to the UCL clubs. More on this further down the page.
Won't this just turn out to be extra places for two top leagues?
If we look back at the previous six seasons, England and Spain take seven of the 12 slots, with Italy and Germany two each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two of average coefficient.
History already told us that it's highly likely two of the top leagues will have five places in the Champions League. Now that's been strengthened by the extra bonus points in the UCL. And we're guaranteed to see it happen again this season.
2023-24: Italy and Germany
2022-23: England and Italy
2021-22: England and the Netherlands
2020-21: England and Spain
2019-20: Spain and Germany
2018-19: England and Spain
How does the coefficient table look this season?
This is the top 10 as of March 13.
1. England, 24.250 - (5/7)
2. Spain, 21.678 - (4/7)
3. Italy, 19.937 - (3/8)
4. Germany, 17.921 - (3/8)
5. Portugal, 16.250 - (0/5)
6. France, 16.214 - (2/7)
7. Belgium, 15.650 - (0/5)
8. Netherlands, 15.250 - (0/6)
9. Greece, 12.687 - (0/4)
10. Norway, 11.062 - (1/4)
The brackets indicate how many of a league's original allocation are still active. For instance, 5/7 indicates two of a league's seven teams has been knocked out.
So, how is the race in the round of 16?
Only England, Spain, Italy and Germany are mathematically still in contention.
England have more clubs remaining (five) than any other league and are almost over the line.
Spain has a decent buffer over third-placed Italy, which has only three teams still active.
Germany has a miniscule chance of mounting a late charge for second, and it's hard to see past the Premier League and then LaLiga or Serie A.
ENGLAND
Still active:
Arsenal (UCL)
Aston Villa (UCL)
Manchester United (UEL)
Tottenham Hotspur (UEL)
Chelsea (UCoL)
Max score possible: 31.606
The Premier League is in a place of incredible strength even though Manchester City and Liverpool are out of the UCL.
Arsenal, however, have to face Real Madrid in the quarterfinals, while Aston Villa take on PSG -- and they are on the path to a potential semifinal
However, Man United (vs. Lyon) and Tottenham (vs. Eintracht Frankfurt) are paired in the Europa League, which means they cannot face each other until the final -- thus no prospect of knocking each other out.
In the UCoL, Chelsea will play Legia Warsaw in the quarterfinals.
It's virtually impossible for the Premier League not to get an extra place from here.
SPAIN
Still active:
Barcelona (UCL)
Real Madrid (UCL)
Athletic Club (UEL)
Real Betis (UCoL)
Max score possible: 28.392
Spain still has two teams active in the UCL, with Real Madrid (vs. Arsenal) and Barcelona (vs. Dortmund) in opposite halves of the bracket.
Athletic Club will take on Rangers in the UEL.
In the UCoL, Real Betis now face Jagiellonia.
Advantage Spain.
ITALY
Still active:
Internazionale (UCL)
Lazio (UEL)
Fiorentina (UCoL)
Max score possible: 24.437
It's now looking bleak for Italy with only Inter (vs. Bayern) remaining in the UCL and Lazio (vs. Bodo/Glimt) in the UEL.
In the UCoL, Fiorentina now meet Celje but Italy needs Spanish clubs to perform badly to have any chance.
GERMANY
Still active:
Bayern Munich (UCL)
Borussia Dortmund (UCL)
Eintracht Frankfurt (UEL)
Max score possible: 21.733
Unfortunately, Bayern and Leverkusen met in the UCL round of 16, so Germany lost a fifth team. Dortmund did go though, but must now take on Barcelona and Bayern meet Inter.
Eintracht Frankfurt knocked out Ajax 2-1 to go through in the UEL and must now play Spurs, but it's only just mathematically possible for Germany to make the top two.
So, what about the new bonus points system?
This is where things changed, and performance in the UCL became much more valuable than the UEL, and likewise the UCoL.
Under the old system, the maximum bonus points for a club in the UCL was 12, and now it's 18 (+6). In the UEL it's up from eight to 10 (+2). In the UCoL, it has risen from four to six (+2).
Every club that participates in the UCL gets a minimum of six bonus points just for taking part (+4) in the league phase. In the UEL, you have to finish first to get six bonus points. In the UCoL, first place only gets you four points. There are no bonus in the UEL or UCoL if you finish outside the top 24, but there are in the UCL.
There are then bonus points for reaching each of the knockout rounds, again weighted by competition.
As well as those high bonus points in the UCL for position, the teams who finish in the top eight are guaranteed another 1.500 for reaching the round of 16.
There were no bonus points for participating in the knockout playoffs in February in any of the competitions, but you did get points for the result of each leg -- something which isn't available to the top eight. Results in the knockout playoffs counted to the league's overall coefficient, but not the individual club's.
Looking at the league phase, by winning the UCL league phase Liverpool earned 13.500 bonus points -- 12.000 for first place, and another 1.500 for getting to the round of 16. Arsenal added 13.000 bonus points for finishing third. Aston Villa, in eighth, added 11.750 while Man City, who were 22nd, could only supply 6.750 bonus points.
But the totals were much lower in the other two European competitions.
Manchester United (6.500) and Tottenham Hotspur (6.250) picked up much fewer bonus points in the UEL league phase than Man City in the UCL even though they finished third and fourth.
By comparison, Chelsea got only 4.500 bonus points even though they finished first in the UCoL league phase.
So that's an advantage for the leagues with five UCL teams?
Yes, and no.
While Serie A and the Bundesliga have five teams in the Champions League, they also have eight teams in Europe.
Every win and bonus point is, when averaged, worth less than it is for the other leagues. And if a few teams struggle, there's no chance of challenging for the top two.
Italian clubs had been holding up well until that horrendous knockout playoff round, and German teams have unperformed greatly even though they had three teams through to the round of 16.
When do we usually find out who gets the extra places?
In many seasons it can be obvious in March, once we know which leagues have multiple teams through to the quarterfinals of the three European competitions.
Last season, Serie A clinched an extra berth on April 18, with the Bundesliga following on May 1. It looked like it was going to be closer, but terrible results for English clubs in the quarterfinals, losing four of its five remaining teams, effectively handed second place to Germany.
The Premier League should seal its place in the next set of matches.
However for second, the 2019-20 season shows that it can go right down to the wire. Germany didn't overtake the Premier League for second place until Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the final of the Champions League. If that's repeated this season, we wouldn't know which league gets the second additional spot until the UCL final on May 31.
It would leave two clubs in the domestic leagues praying for the right result in the final. In 2019-20, Bayer Leverkusen and Leicester City finished fifth in Germany and England respectively. Leverkusen would have needed Bayern to win the UCL final to get the place, while Leicester required Bayern to lose the match.
What's the maximum number of places in the UCL and in Europe?
Under the old system, a maximum of five clubs from one association could play in the Champions League. The cap has been removed and it will be possible for seven teams to get a place in the UCL: The top four, fifth through league performance in Europe, and the winners of the UCL and the UEL (if they do not finish in the top four).
It would also technically be possible, though highly unlikely, to have 11 teams in Europe: The usual allocation of seven, plus the extra Champions League place and the titleholders of all three European competitions.
How does the extra place affect the other league positions?
As the extra spots will go to one of the top leagues, fifth place will enter the Champions League and the two leagues will have eight (rather than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a place.
Any season the Premier League gets it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Conference League: Carabao Cup winners
If LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A get it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Cup winners
Conference League: 7
In all cases if a team win the domestic cup and finish in a European place in the league, the spots drop down one more place.
If a team win the UEL or UCL but don't qualify for the UCL domestically, that league would have six places in the UCL -- the five places to the leagues plus the UEL or UCL titleholders as an additional. The league would forfeit the domestic place earned by the titleholders.
Last season, if Borussia Dortmund had won the Champions League, Germany would have had six teams (the top six) in the UCL but only one in the UEL -- losing the spot earned by Dortmund.
If a country gets the performance spot, and one of its teams finishes eighth and wins a European trophy, ninth can get a place in the UCoL.
Even more unlikely, 11th in the Premier League could qualify for the UCoL if English clubs win all three European competitions and finish eighth, ninth and 10th. This is a picture of how that could happen:
Champions League (7): 1-4; 5 (EPS); Aston Villa win UCL and finish 8, 9 or 10; Man United OR Tottenham win UEL and finish 8, 9 or 10
Europa League (3): 6-7 (FA Cup winners must finish top 7); Chelsea win UCoL and finish 8, 9 or 10
Conference League (1): 11
What does Newcastle winning the Carabao Cup final mean for the Premier League?
Newcastle United are guaranteed a place in the Conference League as Carabao Cup winners.
Champions League: 1-4
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Conference League: Newcastle United.
However, if Newcastle (who are sixth) finish in the top five they will play in the Champions League or the Europa League, and the Conference League place transfers to the league:
Champions League: 1-4
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Conference League: 6
If England gets an extra place in the Champions League, the above positions drop down one.
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Conference League: 7 (Newcastle if they finish seventh or lower)
The FA Cup could also affect the placings depending on who wins it and where they finish.
Which teams would benefit right now?
Man City are fifth in England, with Villarreal holding that spot in LaLiga.