Thanks to the miracle of modern baseball projection systems, we already know precisely how the 2018 season will play out. Because of that, even though we're three weeks away from Opening Day, we might as well dive into trade deadline coverage as teams, already consigned to their 2018 fates, begin positioning themselves for next year.
If you believe that opening paragraph... well, you shouldn't. Nevertheless, while a few impact free agents continue to dangle in limbo, at this point we have a pretty solid handle on each team's baseline of expectation for the coming season. And yes, we can start to look ahead and muse about the in-season trade market.
I did this last year (seller edition | buyer edition), and the methodology hasn't changed, with two small exceptions. The prospect ratings were compiled by aggregating the work of ESPN's Keith Law and that of Baseball America. Also, rather than using consensus projections, I used the forecasts from my system, MLBPET. Finally, contract and free-agent data were taken from spotrac.com.
Today, we start with the teams marked as likely sellers -- all clubs with a less than 20 percent probability of reaching the postseason. The group is ranked according to free-agent WAR, the projected 2018 value of each team's prospective free agents. A player was included in this calculation if he can become a free agent after this season or next or if a contract option exists that would put him on the market after the 2018 season.
STATUS: Sell maybe
WIN RANGE: 70 to 90
FREE-AGENT WAR: 19.5
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Josh Donaldson
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Nate Pearson
The top teams in the seller group, the Blue Jays being one, could have just as easily been listed in the forthcoming buyers piece, though Toronto finished just below my arbitrary 20 percent threshold for playoff probability. I bring that up because the prospect part of this becomes the focal point if a team is buying. However, these teams clustered around the cutoff, such as Toronto, would be unlikely to deal a top prospect for a fringe playoff push. Thus, Pearson is listed here and not Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette or Anthony Alford.
If indeed Toronto sells and extension talks with Donaldson have not progressed, he could become the biggest impact acquisition a contender makes during the season.
STATUS: Sell probably
WIN RANGE: 61 to 81
FREE-AGENT WAR: 15.2
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Manny Machado
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Austin Hays
The Orioles probably shouldn't be trading prospects, but if they surprise during the first half of the season, maybe it would be worth it go all-in for what feels like Machado's last stand in Baltimore.
However, if the season goes as expected and both the Orioles and Blue Jays end up selling, it would be interesting to see what happens to the quality of the offers clubs get for Donaldson and Machado, two of the better stretch-run rentals we've had in a few years.
STATUS: Sell maybe
WIN RANGE: 64 to 84
FREE-AGENT WAR: 14.9
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Cole Hamels
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Leody Taveras
As long as you're not running a six-man rotation, Hamels could be a tremendous boost for a contender that could absorb all or most of his contract. Hamels has a club option on his deal for the 2019 season, so the Rangers should be able to extract a better return than you'd expect for a straight rental.
If Texas contends, it would have the advantage of a young and deep group of position players at the big league level, making it less painful to part with a non-pitching prospect.
Finally, if the Rangers don't contend, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre could be moved to a team that could get him a ring, and he could become one of the feel-good stories of the second half of the season.
STATUS: Sell maybe
WIN RANGE: 67 to 87
FREE-AGENT WAR: 11.2
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Charlie Blackmon/DJ LeMahieu
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Ryan McMahon
The Rockies didn't spend all that money on their bullpen to become sellers, but right now, I have them fourth in the NL West, not far behind the Diamondbacks and Giants.
Nolan Arenado has one more year of arbitration eligibility, so I would think an extension with the Rockies is far more likely than him leaving Colorado at the deadline. After all, if you're not doing everything you can to make that guy the face of your franchise, what is really the point of anything? But the return on an Arenado deal would be huge, so it's something to keep in the back of your head.
More likely, deadline deals would probably include free-agents-to-be LeMahieu and Blackmon. If the Rox are in the playoff chase, it would be surprising to see them deal top prospect Brendan Rodgers, especially with a possible LeMahieu departure freeing up a spot in the middle of the diamond. McMahon looks like Colorado's Opening Day first baseman, but if he's not ready, his versatility could bring back a quality arm for the stretch run.
STATUS: Sell maybe
WIN RANGE: 70 to 90
FREE-AGENT WAR: 8.9
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Madison Bumgarner
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Heliot Ramos
Even if the Giants contend, they don't figure to be big players in the deadline market, with neither the prospect stock nor the room under the luxury-tax threshold to make much happen.
To plug a hole, they might have to deal a prospect such as Ramos for a veteran of middling impact in hopes of the other team picking up most of the cash tab.
If the Giants sell and this season is as bad as last, then moving Bumgarner starts to make a lot more sense. His team-friendly contract is not only light on dollars but also includes a club option for next season. That's San Francisco's best option for a system-replenishing transaction.
STATUS: Sell maybe
WIN RANGE: 66 to 86
FREE-AGENT WAR: 8.6
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Josh Harrison
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Shane Baz
Harrison, who has a club option for 2019, would be a quality pickup for a contender with a hole in the infield. If his offseason rumblings are to be believed, he might not hang around for a rebuild anyway.
On the other hand, for all the talk of a Pirates tank job, they project to be as mediocre as ever. If Pittsburgh were to mount a surprise run at a wild card, then maybe dealing an arm such as Baz for a rental bat or rotation piece could help smooth some of this winter's bad feelings.
STATUS: Sell now
WIN RANGE: 57 to 77
FREE-AGENT WAR: 8.6
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Jose Abreu
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Alex Hansen
Really, I just picked Hansen's name out of a hat. He's a quality pitching prospect, and the White Sox have a lot of those. However, if the Sox are in position to buy, it'll be because a number of their prospects have hit their stride and there might be no reason to add a vet.
In the more likely selling scenario, because of Chicago's prospect depth, there is no urgency to deal a remaining veteran such as Abreu or Avisail Garcia. The White Sox would have all the leverage in those talks.
STATUS: Sell probably
WIN RANGE: 60 to 80
FREE-AGENT WAR: 7.2
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Brad Hand
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Adrian Morejon
Hand signed a three-year extension with a club option for 2021 during the offseason. It's a reasonable and scalable deal that makes him a valuable trade asset if he continues to perform as he did during his 2017 breakout.
As with the White Sox, if San Diego contends, it will be because some of the prospects hit the ground running, with both Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. looking capable of doing just that based on their spring performances. But if the Padres find themselves in a borderline-shocking playoff chase, they might be willing to deal from their prospect depth to upgrade the rotation.
STATUS: Sell probably
WIN RANGE: 64 to 84
FREE-AGENT WAR: 6.8
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Khris Davis
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: James Kaprielian
Davis has another year of arbitration eligibility left on his deal. Oakland has a lot of under-25 big leaguers, or others close to that, to replace him in the lineup and avoid that expense. For a contender looking for some middle-of-the-order pop, Davis would be attractive, and the cost in prospects likely wouldn't be prohibitive.
A surprise Oakland run would probably send Billy Beane in search of a rental or two, and he has the supply of young arms to make something happen.
STATUS: Sell now
WIN RANGE: 56 to 76
FREE-AGENT WAR: 5.9
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Danny Duffy
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Nicky Lopez
Duffy is on a team-friendly deal that has four years remaining on it, providing a lot of future WAR to a team willing to help provide a boost to Kansas City's farm system.
As for a surprise Royals run ... it wouldn't be boosted much by dealing prospects from the barren system. More likely, it would be a lower-tier prospect or two and a willingness to take on some money.
STATUS: Sell now
WIN RANGE: 57 to 77
FREE-AGENT WAR: 5.6
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Michael Fulmer
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Derek Hill
If Fulmer is healthy, he could be as attractive a trade target as will exist on the in-season market, with the stuff to be a No. 2 or 3 in a contending rotation and four years of team control remaining. That combination should command a hefty price in another team's prospects.
The Tigers aren't in position to start trading the prospects they've already gathered for their burgeoning rebuild. Even a season of soft contention would likely see Detroit remain in sell mode, though it might make it that much harder to swing a big deal involving Fulmer.
STATUS: Sell probably
WIN RANGE: 63 to 83
FREE-AGENT WAR: 5.2
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Ender Inciarte
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Cristian Pache
Inciarte is a joy to watch in center field. He also had a nice season at the plate in 2017 and has four years and an option remaining on an extremely team-friendly deal. If the Giants had the prospects to deal, they would be wearing out the smartphone of Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos.
Whether or not Atlanta contends, with Ronald Acuna and Pache in the system, the Braves have center field covered, literally and figuratively. However ... in a surprise contention scenario, the presence of Inciarte and Acuna could move Anthopoulos to chase an impact veteran for the rotation. Hamels seems like he'd be a fit in that case, with Pache becoming Texas' center fielder of the future.
A problem for any Braves in-season deal could be money, as they took on a lot of it in exchange for flexibility after the season. Despite all of this excitement, Atlanta's actual in-season dealing might be much blander.
STATUS: Sell now
WIN RANGE: 53 to 73
FREE-AGENT WAR: 3.5
Best trade piece if they are sellers: J.T. Realmuto
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Brian Anderson
Given his age, production and position, catcher J.T. Realmuto should bring back another welcome jolt for the Marlins' rebuild if (or when) he is finally traded.
I list Anderson as the prospect, but in reality, it's exceedingly unlikely that Miami would move a cost-controlled player for a veteran contract. But if Miami is close to the wild card and one pitcher seems like he could make the difference, you never know.
STATUS: Sell probably
WIN RANGE: 64 to 84
FREE-AGENT WAR: 3.1
Best trade piece if they are sellers: Billy Hamilton
Prospect they could trade if they surprise and become buyers: Tyler Mahle
Hamilton is nearing the end of his arbitration window, and while his on-base skills continue to lag, you could see a contender putting his disruptive baserunning and terrific defense to good use in the postseason format. The Reds have a center-field prospect coming in Taylor Trammell and good depth elsewhere in the outfield, so Hamilton seems like a good bet to be moved at some point.
If Cincinnati is in the wild-card race, that means some of its young starting pitchers have finally turned the corner, one of whom very well could be Mahle. However, if the Reds want to go all-in, Dick Williams might look to package a couple of those young arms for a little veteran certainty for the rotation.