The first few weeks of conference play are typically a time to separate the real from the fake, a way to filter out the teams with gaudy nonconference records and start to take seriously the squads that carry their impressive form into January and February.
A year ago, Ole Miss entered SEC play with a 13-0 record, but stumbled to a 7-11 finish in league play and missed the postseason. Memphis was ranked in the top 10 in January before losing eight of its final 15 games and missed the postseason. It was a similar story for Oklahoma, which was 13-1 before finishing 20-12.
There are examples every season -- and they can also go the other way. UConn wasn't ranked in the preseason top 25 before winning the 2023 national championship. Neither was Purdue, which earned a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament that season. Last season, BYU was picked 13th in the Big 12 before earning a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament. And Iowa State didn't earn a single vote in the preseason AP poll before winning 29 games and landing a 2-seed.
With nearly a month of conference play complete, there are still several surprise teams in good shape heading down the stretch. Four teams that were picked 10th or below in their league's preseason poll rank in the top 25: Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Missouri and Vanderbilt. There aren't many questions about whether Mississippi State is for real, though, so we'll sub in Louisville, which was picked ninth in the ACC in the preseason but looks like the clear second-best team in the league.
Are any of these four this year's version of 2024 Iowa State? Or 2023 UConn? Probably not the latter, but how about 2023 Kansas State, which was picked last in the Big 12 before going to the Elite Eight?
To answer these questions, we reached out to coaches who have faced the four squads mentioned below this season. Do these teams have staying power? Let's break down what their opponents think.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record: 16-4 (4-3 SEC)
Key wins: vs. Tennessee (Jan. 18); vs. Kentucky (Jan. 25)
Preseason ranking: No. 16 in the SEC
Latest AP poll ranking: No. 24
The case for Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt burst into the top 25 this week for the first time since December 2015, notching home wins against Tennessee and Kentucky over the past two weekends.