Welcome to the inaugural ESPN NBL Player Rankings in which we list the Top 20 players in the league to start the season.
So, what's the rationale?
Well, the Top 20 should represent the absolute best of the best; the players with the capacity for the greatest impact on the court towards winning and capable of wowser moments that leave your head spinning like a top.
Alas, there is no catchall equation; no arbitrary statistic that captures the precise value of every single player. Rather than go down that rabbit hole, we've ditched any attempts to come up with a hybrid amalgamation of PERs, and Real Plus/Minuses.
There are no complex algorithms here. Just a sprinkling of the eye test, some light delving into statistics for the sake of confirmation bias, and finally, a gut feel.
The final rankings arrived with a little bit of internal haggling, lots of toggling back-and-forth, blatant contradictions, and wild pangs of regret.
Phew.
So, here are the rules.
Past performance does matter. Experience in this league provides a roadmap for how players will perform, how they adjust to the style, and how they cope with the officiating.
But past performance alone won't get a player into the top 20 - we want to see what a player has done recently. How did they fare in the preseason? Those critical weeks give us a snapshot of recent form. Who looks to be tip-tip shape? Who has aged terribly? Who project as the most impactful imports?
There's also a little bit of crystal-balling into how they project to perform this season. Finally, to be in the top 20 a player needs to be on the floor: 22 minutes per game was the arbitrary mark we came up with - Josh Boone, you just made it. Full disclosure: Josh Boone really needs to make this list.
Unfortunately, this meant some plus-minus beasts who make winning plays didn't make the cut -apologies to Mika Vukona especially, and also Armani Moore (remember the name!).
Yes, this final list will be contentious. Yes, there are plenty of good players that missed the cut. And yes, your list may decidedly different to ours - that's okay. NBL discourse thrives on difference.
Final important note: we don't hate your team, and we don't dislike your favourite player. And yes, there are a lot of good players that missed the cut.
Oh, boy. Here we go.
Apologies: Thomas Abercrombie, Cam Gliddon, Nate Jawai, Cam Bairstow, Cedric Jackson, Brian Conklin, Patrick Richard, Devon Hall amongst others.
20. Brad Newley
Old Reliable. While the offseason saw a mass exodus of an uber class of small forwards from the 2017/18 season, Newley continues to chug away. I see your struggles, Newls!
Last season was a down year for Newley, with a drop in overall field goal percentage and usage, though he upped his three-point accuracy. There's a sense that he's on the decline. Still, Newley gets majors incumbency points. He's still slicing to the hoop even though defenders know it.
A minor quibble: despite the downtick in scoring, Newley hasn't compensated with a higher assist rate.
19. Damian Martin
Is there a greater competitor -- and ultimate winner -- than the great Damian Martin? The Perth Wildcats skipper is the heart and soul who drives the values and standards of the club. Tough, tenacious, and a flat-out monster on defence.
Still, the courageous skipper will need to overcome Father Time. We started to see slippage last year; his shooting numbers declined sharply, along with steal and overall rebound rates, per RealGM. The eye test also showed a loss in lateral quickness.
18. Jacob Wiley
The human pogo stick has been highly impressive over the preseason, gobbling rebounds and bum-rushing to the rim in transition. He's quick, twitchy and should figure prominently amongst the league leaders in rebounds and blocks.
Wiley won't necessarily be a secondary creator, like a Mitch Creek, but his energy and hustle fit seamlessly with the 36ers.
17. Melo Trimble
We're raising our flag now - we're all-in atop the Melo Trimble Hill. Trimble has a smooth game, with the ability to break down a defence and either get into the lane, or step back and launch triples.
In related news, Shawn Long is still recovering from preseason devastation at the hands of Trimble. He's an awesome offensive talent who will light up the league for Cairns.
16. A.J. Ogilvy
The biggest enigma in the league. Ogilvy can flat-out dominate a contest on both sides of the court. On the flip side, he can go missing for quarters.
When he's on, the Hawks have one of the best big men in the league and all accounts are that we'll see the best version of A.J this year. The Hawks are going to need it. He's dabbled with three-pointers in recent years, but he's better off bagging that sucker.
15. Shawn Long
Long and athletic, the former Philadelphia 76er has impressed in the preseason with his mobility, rebounding and rim protection. Those are core ingredients for a defence that wants to switch. Can your big switch on the pick-and-roll? The past two champions have boasted rim-running, defensive centres - think the Jameel Mckays and Josh Boones of the world - and Long figures to replicate that role for the Breakers.
14. Nick Kay
Underrated, do-it-all forward who does everything with minimal fuss. Always at the right place, and at the right time, Kay is also an elite passing big man, often connecting the dots on offence.
Kay will rocket up these rankings if he ever develops a reliable three-point stroke -he upped his three-point attempts last year but only managed a 28 percent mark, per RealGM.
13. Kevin Lisch
Are we seeing the slow decline of Kevin Lisch? The former MVP hasn't quite looked the same player since joining the Kings.
Still a tenacious defender and elite ball-hawk, Lisch is still capable of hitting big shots. His finishing around the ring has declined since moving to the Harbour City, shooting a ghastly 26.3 percent from the paint (beyond the restricted area) last season. He was at 42.7 percent the season before. He's often looked exhausted, perhaps over-taxed from taking the most challenging defensive assignments.
Lisch belongs higher on this list, but now 32, and coming off an injury-marred campaign, it's feasible that top 10 Kevin Lisch no longer exists.
12. Mitch McCarron
Inherited the mantle from Damian Martin as the league's best rebounding guard. McCarron's all-round game has blossomed over the past two seasons. He's a tough defender who can legitimately check three positions, is a good enough shooter from the perimeter, and has added playmaking to his toolkit.
For a supreme athlete, McCarron's percentages from close range are poor, per Crunchtimeshots.com. Still, he's in the prime of his career right now and figures to only get better.
11. Corey Webster
The ultimate heat-check, Webster returns to the NBL with an even bigger greenlight to let that sucker fly. An elite shooter, and in his prime, Webster will key the Breakers' offence. He loses a few spots due to defence that could...uh...improve.
10. Tai Wesley
Wesley was a crucial cog for United in their championship run; his post play (scoring and passing) was gorgeous, and he added a further dimension to their offence. He was a more-trigger-happy Boris Diaw of the NBL.
He's undersized, so he's prone to fouling (amongst the league leaders last season) but he's physical, and will batter the reckless fool who dares to drive into his domain. He'll add to the toughness - and general meanness - of the Breakers this season.
9. Nathan Sobey
The most explosive player in the league. Some regard him as Australia's version of Russell Westrbook - a snarling, ferocious competitor who only knows one speed. With Mitch Creek departed, Sobey carries the torch for the seething rage brigade: watch him zoom from end-to-end after a defensive rebound, finish through contact, and scream in furious frenzy.
He's now the crankiest dude on the court. Those angry bursts to the rim are complemented by a nuanced game. Duck under screens and he'll unleash an elite midrange game - consistently amongst the best in the league from above the free throw line, per crunchtimeshots.com.
8. D.J. Newbill
Is Newbill the most underrated superstar in this league? He's one of the NBL's premier two-way players. Newbill is routinely given the toughest defensive assignment on the perimeter. On the other end, he's a wrecking ball barrelling into the paint, and hits big time shots time and time again.
7. Josh Boone
The premier centre last season. Boone is a beast on the boards on both ends for United, and his screening and rim-runs unlock all sorts of goodness for United. Perhaps his greatest attribute is his overall defensive package: quick feet, capable of sliding and staying in front of quicker peeps off the switch, rim protection, and a general grittiness.
The advanced metrics rate Boone highly -- and they're right to -- but they don't necessarily paint the full picture. Boone's impact on offence is largely relative to the shot creation of his teammates.
6. Chris Goulding
The league's most flamboyant shot-maker, Goulding showcased his incredible offensive arsenal against the Philadelphia 76ers in their preseason exhibition. Over the past two seasons, he's pretty much averaged 8 triple attempts per game, and shot above 40 percent - an insane mark.
Defence will never be a strong suit, but he's solid, not a sieve as his reputation suggests.
5. Andrew Bogut
Bogut should lead the league in blocked shots this year. And he'll battle with Josh Boone and Jacob Wiley for the rebounding crown. His impact on defence is already palpable. Opposing slashers are already nursing sweaty palms thinking about this.
Bogut should be higher, but the concern over foul trouble is real. Can he stay on the floor long enough to truly impact the wins column? On offence, teams have already adjusted in preseason, denying him space on the perimeter to thread those passes to cutters.
4. Daniel Johnson
Johnson has been the best Australian big man for a few years now, combining a versatile offensive skillset with underrated defence. He's long been Adelaide's get-out-of-jail-free card in the half-court grind - feed the ball down low and watch him punk fools into fouling via a repertoire of up-fakes and rip-throughs. He's also annually amongst the best denizens atop the plus-minus mountain.
And now we reach the top 3 and we're splitting hairs...
3. Jerome Randle
The former MVP boasts the best handle in the league, which he uses to great effect; that hesitation pull-up unleashes the best midrange game in the league. At times last season, the Kings' entire offence subsisted entirely upon Jerome Randle goodness, after the initial fluff yielded nothing.
He's an incredible player for this league, and possibly its best showman. Randle tries on defence, but his lack of size and magnetic pull towards opposition screens puts him as a minus on that end of the floor.
2. Casper Ware
Ware's the best two-way player of the triumvirate of guards to close this list. As well as being the lead shot creator for the champs, he's diligent on defence, and holds his own when the opposition forces a switch and takes him down low.
Still, he doesn't crack the top spot due to a drop in offensive efficiency last season. Ware scaled back the ball-hoggery from his debut season with United but that did not result in greater efficiency. Per NBL.com.au, he averaged a tick over 13 shots a game and shot the ball at a 37 percent clip. Including the playoffs, he took 493 shots in total, and had an overall field goal percentage of 38 percent, per RealGM.
1. Bryce Cotton
Cotton reigns supreme in our inaugural rankings. If Damian Martin is the soul of the Wildcats, the reigning MVP is the heartbeat of the Wildcats offence - it literally all revolves around him. Despite the load, Cotton had a truly outstanding offensive season last year. He essentially jacked up 7 three-point attempts per game, shooting at an almost 45 percent clip. That's bonkers.
Cotton doesn't have the passing numbers of his luminaries, but that's more a result of his relative lack of options. On defence, Martin shields Cotton from the most exhaustive defensive duties, he also has a little bit more size, and general zippiness on that end to navigate picks.