It's Monday and we can all take (another) collective breath with a five-day break between Game 1 and 2 in the NBL Championship series. It's time to reflect on the series opener and ponder what it could mean moving forward.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
THE JACKJUMPERS CAN'T WIN THE TITLE WITH THIS VERSION OF JORDAN CRAWFORD
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
This is the biggest storyline of the series for me - for several reasons. If you look at the teams that have caused trouble for United in NBL24, they have something in common and that's elite guard play. The Taipans, who managed to beat United multiple times in the regular season were led by Pat Miller and Tahjere McCall, who torched Melbourne every time. If Jordon Crawford can't fire in this series, it allows Shea Ili to completely dictate every crucial possession and Melbourne feel comfortable. If Crawford can find his groove it can take some pressure off Doyle and McVeigh to carry the scoring load against a team that has offensive weapons everywhere.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
The JackJumpers have already got to this position without close to the best of Crawford. Against the Wildcats, Crawford finished an inefficient 9-for-33 from the floor and made just two baskets in Game 2 and 3, with the Jackies still rolling to wins. He's been a dynamic player at times through the season and he certainly could pull a 20-point night in any one of these games, though, the matchup was always going to be a daunting one, with every single one of his minutes coming with stifling defence from Shea Ili or Matthew Dellavedova. I have Crawford pegged as more of a wildcard than a key in this matchup.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
I'm with Kane on this, and largely due to those numbers he pointed out. The JackJumpers have succeeded without Crawford being a super high level producer, and they have enough talent on their roster to continue that. Would it be more beneficial for the team if Crawford was able to find his rhythm, obviously. But, outside of Doyle and McVeigh, there's something democratic about how this team operates, and it's led to them having the No. 1 offence in the league. They're elite with him firing, but still capable if he isn't.
THE GRAND FINAL SERIES MVP WILL BE IN THE HANDS OF JO LUAL-ACUIL IF MELBOURNE CLOSE OUT TASMANIA
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
I feel wrong for saying this after one game, considering Goulding was my pick for the series MVP before it began but Jo Lual-Acuil. was a monster in Game 1. Goulding lives and breathes these big moments and no doubt will have a very strong case by the end of the series but I personally think the matchup between JLA and Magnay is what will win it for each team. When looking at all the games that Tasmania wins, it's usually on the back of Magnay controlling the paint on both ends. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. played like this matchup was personal in the first game and he dominated that battle from the opening tip. It's hard to see him slowing down now that he has that extra confidence boost.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
Luke Travers and Chris Goulding will fight him for it, but the magnitude of the individual matchup with Will Magnay would make me believe that if Melbourne win, JLA has been a huge factor. Sometimes the box score doesn't do justice to the dominance of a player, but in Game 1 it certainly did. 9-for-14 on 2-point attempts, four offensive rebounds and two blocks, JLA was a physical monster and the best player on the floor in my opinion. Even if I didn't necessarily agree with some of the calls (shocker), his ability to put constant foul pressure on Magnay is also a key to the series.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
There's just too much high-level talent across this United roster to pinpoint one person in a series like this. Acuil Jr. was the key in Game 1, on both ends of the floor, but we also saw elite games from Goulding and Travers, so we'll have to see who this matchup favours going forward. We can theoretically see Magnay get more involved in this series and get the better of his matchup with Acuil Jr. to some extent, but someone like Goulding continues to have incredible rhythm offensively and United keeps winning games because of it. The struggles the JackJumpers had with Acuil Jr. have to be encouraging for United going forward in this series, and he's the frontrunner for the Larry Sengstock Medal after Game 1, but he wasn't alone, so this will be a fun race.
DESPITE A BLOWOUT IN GAME 1, THIS SERIES IS STILL GOING THE DISTANCE AND WILL BE DECIDED IN A GAME 5
Peter Hooley: Headline.
Whilst it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if this still went five games, that statement win in the first has me questioning it now. We rarely see that kind of dominant performance against Tasmania due to their toughness and ability to slow the game down when they need to. As we have touched on in the other questions, if this is to go five games, Tassie needs to get Crawford going and step up and control the paint defensively. Melbourne putting up 104 points with ease wouldn't make Scott Roth happy and it resembled the Tasmania we saw during the middle portion of the season when they were lost on that end of the floor. One thing is for certain, you can never rule out this JackJumpers culture and a team coached by Roth. Perhaps the gap between Game 1 and 2 is a blessing for this team to try and go home with a clean slate and come out with a bang in front of their fans.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
Before Game 1, the JackJumpers' greatest loss of the season was an eight-point margin. With that in mind, a 20+ point blowout in Game 1 could be the type of result to rattle a squad... but this is Tasmania. When have you really seen them rattled in their three-year existence? Additionally, it's also a position Roth is very familiar with, as his squads are now 0-5 in Game 1 of a semi-final or championship series. A lot went wrong in Game 1, but I find it hard to believe there won't at least be a moment or two of high anxiety for United fans over the next two weeks.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
The JackJumpers operate too well to get swept, but the nature of that Game 1 win for United was ominous. Sure, they shot it very well, but the win was due, in large part, to how effectively they imposed themselves on the defensive end. United looked bigger, more physical, more athletic, and played with more urgency; those are things that feel sustainable, and can travel. They could've shot 15 percent less from downtown and still won that Game 1; that was the extent of their defensive dominance. Most of us had this series as a toss-up going in - like last season's Championship series: the best two teams in the league going to five games - but that opening game may end up being telling. Maybe, just maybe, Melbourne has that extra bit of juice to put this one away earlier than we all thought.