Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem.
Melbourne United: it's all about the defence
Over the past few games, United hasn't really looked like a typical Dean Vickerman team.
They started the season as expected: as the most organised team with enough talent, depth, and continuity to rise as the early favourites. It's a group that's been together before, with two-way floor generals in Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova, the return of an elite Jack White and reliable Ian Clark, a game-breaker in Chris Goulding, led by one of the best head coaches in the league. They're a safe team, in a good way; they're easy to trust.
Their 11-4 start to the season made sense, and it was on the back of an elite defence; allowing just 108.6 points per 100 possessions (top-three in the NBL) over that stretch of games, which was supplemented by an offence (117.9 points per 100 possessions) that sat around the league average.
United had a heavy home schedule and, guided by their defence, created some separation atop the NBL ladder.
They've recently entered a lull, though.
United is in the midst of a three-game losing streak -- which is the team's longest since 2022 -- two of which were at home, while another was a road game but still at John Cain Arena. It'd be easy to point to the absence of Chris Goulding (hamstring) as a reason why they're in this mini-slump, and it's not worth completely overreacting, but the offensive end of the floor isn't what's been the most issue for United and that's made for some concerning indicators.
Over this losing streak, United has a Defensive Rating of 133.0, which is bottom-two in the NBL over that stretch of time. An Offensive Rating of 119.9 across those games is a positive number -- though still below the NBL average in that time range, because the league is in a weird, unexplainable scoring boom -- and would generally lead to wins, but not when your defence is sub-par and other teams are putting points on the board at an unprecedented level.
Goulding's return will obviously help. The team's offence gets better, which does have a positive impact on the defence, allowing Vickerman's team to set up more effectively.
It's the absence of Marcus Lee that's probably having more of an impact through this skid, though. United has an Offensive Rating of 120.0 and a Defensive Rating of 103.0 (team-best) when the American big-man is on the floor, and not having his size and athleticism has also likely contributed to them being the worst defensive rebounding team (60% DReb) over that stretch of games.
The losing streak is a small sample size, but it's highlighting which skillsets on this United roster that are the toughest to cover for. Lee's playstyle is a point of difference for United, and it's clear that's been felt in a significant way in his absence.
Are the JackJumpers' offensive woes over or is this just a favourable stretch of the schedule?
The JackJumpers are the hottest team in the NBL right now.
There was a point, though, where things looked extremely grim. We all know the story: the roster was built with Jack McVeigh in mind, so, when the Australian left for the Houston Rockets, the signing of Craig Sword no longer made sense, and then a long-term injury to Sean Macdonald left the JackJumpers without a really important creation piece.
It meant they started the season 3-8, and were putting up historically bad offensive numbers.
Since that horrific start, though, they've won five straight games to get back to 0.500 -- practically reviving their season -- with Macdonald back for the last four of those. They look like a completely different team.
Jordon Crawford leads Tasmania with 24 points as the JackJumpers blow out New Zealand for their fifth win in a row.
Over their first 11 games, the JackJumpers scored 99.9 points per 100 possessions, which was a number the NBL hadn't seen in two decades. Their defence (109.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) was tracking well, but they just couldn't put enough points on the board to stay in games.
Through this five-game winning streak, the JackJumpers have an Offensive Rating of 117.8 points per 100 possessions -- which is right around the league average over that stretch -- and their defence has improved to 102.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. The return of Macdonald helped on both ends -- he's averaging 13.3 points and 3.8 assists per game, shooting 45% from downtown on good volume -- and led to the efficiency of Milton Doyle and Jordon Crawford slightly rising.
The question is: how real is this turnaround? There's a really good argument that we definitely need to wait and see more.
That's because this five-game winning streak has been: a home win against a flailing New Zealand Breakers, a home win over the Brisbane Bullets, a road win against a very undermanned Adelaide 36ers, a home win over the last-placed Cairns Taipans, and road win over the Breakers.
You can probably point to that win over the Bullets as the only quality victory in there. The rest: not so much. While the JackJumpers absolutely get credit for winning the games they're supposed to, one of those contests being against a 36ers team that was missing three of its four best players due to suspension or injury, and two being against whatever the Breakers are these days is, at the very least, worth noting.
Scott Roth's team is back in the six, so that's a mental hurdle they've overcome. They're in the mix. Are they a full-blown contender, though? We still have to see a lot more, and against better competition, before they come close to entering that conversation. Let's see how the addition of Ian Hummer -- a 6'7 big with a high work-rate, who's replaced Sword -- impacts this team; it feels like they'll get a defensive boost to raise their floor, while perhaps still being an offensive weapon short of being a true contender.
The Breakers' unprecedented drop-off
Remember when the Breakers were the feel-good story of the NBL?
They had very little expectations because they rolled into the new season with a rookie head coach, some unfamiliar faces, and an unenviable schedule that included NBA preseason games. Still, they managed to start the season 7-3, which included impressive wins over United and the Sydney Kings on the road. For a moment, they were rolling and had a lot of us wondering if they were a legitimate playoff contender.
Six games later, and that sentiment no longer exists.
The Breakers are currently sitting on a six-game losing streak, and now sit outside the top-six.
Through their first 10 games, the Breakers scored 116.6 points per 100 possessions, and allowed 112.9 points per 100 possessions. Over their last six, they're scoring 107.3 points per 100 possessions, and conceding 135.3 points per 100 possessions. Both of those are significant drop-offs -- a net rating of +3.7, down to -28 -- and have Petteri Koponen searching for answers.
The big, material difference is obviously the introduction of Tacko Fall, but the departure of Freddie Gillespie is probably the more significant part of that acquisition. In Gillespie, the Breakers had a big-man who could guard in multiple different schemes, whether that was hard showing or in a drops; he gave them a lot of insurance on the defensive end. The Breakers had an offensive rating of 122 and defensive rating of 104 with Gillespie on the floor; both above the team's averages, with the big-man also leading the NBL in blocks over his time in the league.
The injury to Jonah Bolden also had a significant effect on how this team operates on both ends, but he wouldn't have remedied the extent of the defensive drop-off the numbers are demonstrating. The Breakers are still figuring out how best to use Fall, who, thus far, has really only looked playable in a zone, and even that hasn't looked particularly effective.
The worst part is there hasn't been many redeeming factors over this six-game skid, and it's tough to see when they may break out of it. It appears, at last right now, as though making an import change at the first FIBA break when your team was 7-3 might not have been the greatest idea.
My favourite plays of the week
Tyrell Harrison is quickly becoming the NBL's most unstoppable, imposing big.
Tyrell Harrison recognizes the mismatch, attacks it with some elite footwork. King urges Hunter to get up and in on Naar beyond halfcourt, basically creating the mismatch. pic.twitter.com/4LHyqBJtx3
— Olgun's Notebook (@OlgsNotebook) December 13, 2024
Sam Froling tracked the flight of the ball really well here, then had the awareness to find Mason Peatling under the rim.
A+ work rate and awareness from Sam Froling. pic.twitter.com/6y1mKeb7DO
— Olgun's Notebook (@OlgsNotebook) December 13, 2024