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Super Bowl 2023 preview: Chiefs-Eagles storylines, prediction

Illustration by ESPN

The Philadelphia Eagles were in shambles a little over two years ago.

At 4-11-1, they were being excoriated for playing third-string quarterback Nate Sudfeld in a game with playoff implications, helping push a woeful NFC East to 7-9 Washington. Coach Doug Pederson, three years removed from a Super Bowl title, was about to be fired. Franchise quarterback Carson Wentz, on a Hall of Fame track as recently as the 2019 season, had been unsettled by the decision to draft Jalen Hurts and melted behind a battered offensive line. Wentz, too, would be gone within months.

Now, the Eagles are back. Howie Roseman, the general manager many fans wanted out the door alongside Pederson and Wentz, rebuilt the roster in record time. Team owner Jeffrey Lurie nailed the head-coach hiring of Nick Sirianni, who has gone from being a news conference curiosity to the leader of the league's best team. Hurts, who was in the middle of a 7-for-20 day before being benched for Sudfeld in that Washington game, has grown into a superstar.

Of course, there's life after getting fired by the Eagles. Andy Reid was run out of town by the fan base in Philadelphia after posting his third losing season in 14 years amid suggestions that he had grown predictable and would never make it back to the Super Bowl. Reid immediately went to Kansas City in 2013 and revitalized the Chiefs. Plus, when he linked up with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he suddenly figured out how to win in the playoffs! Reid's Chiefs have won one Super Bowl and are back in their third title game in four years.

When Reid joined the Chiefs, many coaches on the previous staff were let go, as is often the case. One of them was a 31-year-old wide receivers coach by the name of Nick Sirianni who had joined the staff under Todd Haley and stuck around for the brief tenure of Romeo Crennel. It has been too long for this to be a revenge game for either coach, but let's not pretend that what happened in the past doesn't add at least a little bit of fuel to the fire.

These two teams played in October 2021, with Mahomes throwing five touchdown passes in a 42-30 victory. Much has changed since then. The Chiefs don't have Tyreek Hill. The Eagles reimagined their offense, rode its success to the postseason and then had one of the best offseasons in recent memory to replenish their roster. Hurts has leveled up and then done so again.

As we start to break down everything related to Super Bowl LVII, it seems instructive to begin with the way these teams have changed and what destroyed the Chiefs the last time they were in the Super Bowl.

Jump to a section:
How the Chiefs' O-line has improved
Why Travis Kelce is such a mismatch
Which team will win on third down?
Will Mahomes' ankle injury be a factor?
How aggressive will Philly be vs. Mahomes?
What makes Jalen Hurts so awesome
Steve Spagnuolo has evolved ... right?
How is Jason Kelce still doing this?
Can the Eagles dominate in the red zone?
Why Philly has an advantage on fourth down
Final score prediction: And the winner is ...

Can the Chiefs protect Mahomes this time?

Two years ago, the Chiefs went up against a Buccaneers team with one of the league's deepest and most devastating pass rushes. Coordinator Todd Bowles is a creative blitz designer and pulled out some whoppers, but he didn't really need them. Tampa Bay destroyed Kansas City up front, forcing Mahomes to scramble on nearly every pass dropback. Mahomes left the Bucs' sideline in awe, but he wasn't able to influence the game in a 31-9 blowout loss.

Let's start there. With Mahomes still dealing with a high ankle sprain, should we expect the Chiefs to crumble up front against the league's best pass rush? The Eagles finished with 15 more sacks than any other team this season and added eight more to their total in blowout playoff wins over the Giants and 49ers.

Kansas City general manager Brett Veach understandably took the Super Bowl LV loss to heart and has spent the past two years rebuilding his line. The unit in that Super Bowl started three backups. Those players are no longer on the roster, and neither are four of the starters who lined up for the Chiefs in Week 1 that season. Objective No.1 has been to protect Mahomes, whose movement and improvisational skills make him both a generational talent and an incredibly difficult quarterback to block as a lineman.

The only lineman left from that group is Andrew Wylie, who started at right tackle in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs traded a first-round pick to acquire left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., signed former Patriots guard Joe Thuney to a market-topping contract in free agency and then used middle-rounds picks on center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith in the 2021 draft. The latter two have emerged as impact players. Thuney is steady and reliable, although he struggled a bit in his battles with Bengals tackle DJ Reader in the first half a week ago.

The tackles are a bigger concern. Wylie has grown into a solid starter, but the numbers from Stats Perform note the former guard allowed eight sacks in pass protection this season. Brown is an impressive run-blocker with the physical traits to block anybody, but the converted right tackle still has too many hiccups while protecting Mahomes' blind side. Brown struggled early in the win over the Jaguars and had his pass blocking lead to 30 incompletions this season, per ESPN Stats & Information research, the second most of any player.