It's official: The 2016 Australian Open men's draw is out, and the most striking thing about it is the balance. The draw is loaded with solid matchups. Not a single contender has a conspicuously easy path, even on paper, or the dreaded nightmare draw. So let's get to it.
Best first-round match
Rafael Nadal versus Fernando Verdasco: This is not the first round that the fifth-seeded Nadal, still rebuilding his confidence from a frustrating 2015, would have wished for. The Spanish lefties played one of the greatest matches in the tournament's history in 2009, a semifinal epic finally won by Nadal 6-4 in the fifth set. Nadal leads his mercurial rival 14-2, but they were 1-1 in 2015. Verdasco, down to No. 47 but once No. 7 in the world, won their hard-court encounter in Miami last March.
Luck of the draw
Kevin Anderson: The No. 11 seed has a pretty nice setup. If he gets past American Rajeev Ram in the first round, he will face the winner of a match between qualifiers, and possibly another qualifier in the third round.
Upset watch
Nadal: It doesn't seem fair to pile on poor Rafa, but let's face it -- Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka ... every one of them finished strong in 2015. Nadal did too, but only in the sense that he finally showed signs of pulling out of a long, ruinous slump. He enters this year's first major with giant question marks hovering over his head.
Contender best positioned for the final (top half)
Djokovic: As if his current form weren't enough of an advantage, the top seed wouldn't have to face a fellow Grand Slam champion until a potential semifinal against the No. 3-seeded Federer.
Contender best positioned for the final (bottom half)
A close call: No. 2-seeded Murray has potential matchups against tricky players, while Nadal and No. 4-seeded Wawrinka could face rivals with big, power-based games. Murray's opponents are less dangerous and he's got the game to handle them.
Cinderella candidate
Milos Raonic: Has his time come? Raonic had an impressive win versus Federer to start the year in Brisbane, Australia. He's seeded No. 13, and angry that his ranking slipped out of the top 10 due to his injury-plagued 2015. But Raonic might have to take down Wawrinka, Nadal and Murray to make the final.
American with the friendliest path
Steve Johnson: He made great strides in 2015, enough to earn himself a No. 31 seeding. He has a winnable first-round match against Great Britain's Aljaz Bedene, and a reasonable shot at a third-round clash with No. 8 seed David Ferrer. At 33, Ferrer's "Little Beast" persona is becoming less convincing. It would be a good opportunity for Johnson.
Fish out of water
John Isner: The American has beaten only two players ranked in the top 50 at this tournament, both in 2010. While Isner plays well in the heat of the North American summer, he's just 9-7 at sweltering Melbourne Park in January. Last year, he lost against No. 42 Gilles Muller in the third round. He's seeded No. 10 this year, and set to face that other towering ace machine, Poland's Jerzy Janowicz.
Most likely to hit the reset button
Nadal: For more than a decade, he personified determination and the ability to persevere and conquer adversity. So while he may be vulnerable and struggling, give the nod to the Spaniard.
Most in need of a good run
Nick Kyrgios: Everyone from Murray to Lleyton Hewitt to Djokovic has been cheerleading for tennis' bad boy, hoping he gets his act together. Seeded No. 29, there's no reason Kyrgios can't make a running start with a good performance at his home Slam. He could have a third-round date with No. 6 Tomas Berdych.
Hard luck of the draw
James Duckworth: If you're the Aussie wild card, you'd probably be delighted to learn that you drew another wild card in the first round. Until you learned that your opponent was not some 16-year-old phenom from France but rather fellow countryman and living legend Lleyton Hewitt. This tournament is Hewitt's swan song; he's retiring after this event. Duckworth may not have much crowd support, but he'll sure have a crowd.
First-round match we don't want to miss
No. 7 Kei Nishikori versus Philipp Kohlschreiber: The Nadal-Verdasco match brings the star power, but if you're into deep tennis, it's hard to beat the pairing of Nishikori and that versatile "thinking man's player," Kohlschreiber. Nishikori has been somewhat disappointing in majors (that 2014 US Open final is the exception), and is bound to feel a certain amount of pressure in Melbourne, Australia. Kohlschreiber is 32 and knows his days as a force are numbered, but he's a wily veteran who knows how to get under an opponent's skin.