After 15 months away from tennis, what kind of impact will Maria Sharapova have when she returns next spring?
Two ESPN analysts, Brad Gilbert and Pam Shriver -- formidable former professionals both -- have widely differing views.
"Yes," Shriver said Tuesday from her southern California home, "she can still win majors."
Gilbert, speaking some 350 miles to the north, wasn't so sure.
"I think it's going to be really difficult for her," he said. "Fifteen months is a long, long time."
The Court of Arbitration for Sport -- the highest governing authority in sports -- reduced the previous two-year drug suspension of the International Tennis Federation to 15 months.
That means Sharapova, a five-time Grand Slam champion, will be eligible to come back April 25, 2017, one week after her 30th birthday. Essentially, the reduction means Sharapova will miss only four Grand Slam events (plus the Olympics), as opposed to the eight originally decreed.
"Tennis is my passion and I have missed it," she said in a statement. "I am counting the days until I can return to the court."
Here is a likely timeline for that keenly anticipated moment:
Sharapova was ranked No. 5 among WTA players when she lost to then-No. 1 Serena Williams at January's Australian Open and is currently No. 95. But since Sharapova will not have earned any ranking points over the previous 52 weeks, she will be starting from zero. As a former major champion, however, she can receive unlimited wild cards from tournaments.
Because of what Shriver calls "maybe unprecedented coverage," there should be no shortage of those offers.
"You don't know how long it will take her to find her rhythm. Mentally, this had to be tough because unlike injury or maternity leave, you know you should be out there playing." Brad Gilbert, ESPN tennis analyst
With an April 25 start date, Sharapova will miss one of her most successful tournaments, Stuttgart, where she won three titles in a four-year span. The next event on the WTA schedule begins May 1, in Prague, the capital and largest city in the Czech Republic. This is also a smaller "International" tournament, carrying a minimum purse of $250,000 that she has never played. That is followed May 8 by Madrid, a larger (Premier Mandatory) event, Rome (May 15, Premier 5) and the clay season culminates with the French Open, beginning May 22.
It's reasonable to assume she'll play at least two of those clay tournaments leading to Roland Garros. Early in her career, Sharapova struggled on clay but eventually came to terms with the slippery surface and won the French Open in 2012 and 2014 -- the only major she's won twice.
"With that schedule, it will be tough to be ready [to win] the French," Shriver conceded."
Gilbert thinks there will be some rust, physically and mentally.
"If you look over last few years, she never played a lot," Gilbert said. "You don't know how long it will take her to find her rhythm. Mentally, this had to be tough, because unlike injury or maternity leave, you know you should be out there playing.
"I think she gets herself into shape in 2017, pulls her ranking back up and is in position to contend in 2018."
Sharapova, the No. 1-ranked player five different times for total of 22 weeks, is one of only 10 women to complete the career Grand Slam. Viewing the glass half full, one could argue that the 15-month layoff can only help an athlete that faced career-threatening shoulder surgery in 2008 and missed nearly 10 months. After she returned, with a ranking that dipped as low as No. 126, Sharapova won 16 titles, including those two French Opens.
Monica Seles came back from a 2½-year absence following a stabbing and almost immediately made the finals of the US Open and won the following year in Melbourne. But she was only 21 when she began her comeback.
Gilbert, former coach of Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick and Andy Murray, is leaning toward a glass-half-empty scenario.
"She's resilient, and the one thing that will motivate her more than anything is people thinking she can't do it," he said. "But I think [the layoff] puts a serious damper on her chances of winning majors again."
Shriver cites the experience of Serena Williams, who missed back-to-back Slams in 2006 and three in a row from 2010-11 and rallied famously.
Williams won nine Grand Slam singles titles after she turned 30, the age Sharapova will be when she comes back this spring.
"Maria is more than five years younger than Serena," Shriver said. "She'll be viable as soon as she comes back.
"In an era when [Angelique] Kerber won two Slams and [Garbine] Muguruza won the French, absolutely. She'll look at this year as an opportunity lost."
You won't have to wait until next May to see Sharapova back in action.
She's scheduled to be on the court at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas next Monday as part of the WTT's Smash Hits, a charity exhibition hosted by Billie Jean King and Sir Elton John. Yes, Sharapova will join the likes of John McEnroe, Martina Navratilova, Roddick and others.
The WTT will officially announce her participation Wednesday.
You didn't think Sharapova would wait the full 15 months to step back into the spotlight, did you?