South Carolina has been the No. 1 overall team in Bracketology since the preseason. Stanford has been No. 2. Those spots have held firm. So much else has changed.
The other two No. 1 seeds in October -- Texas and Tennessee -- are now bubble teams. Iowa, a No. 2 seed then, has four losses. Louisville, another preseason 2-seed, has five.
Ohio State and Utah were expected to be good teams. But this good? They are a combined 29-0, reside in the top 10 of the NET, and sit as a No. 1 and a No. 2 seed, respectively, in this week's Bracketology. The Buckeyes have established themselves as the consensus third-best team in the country and have done it largely without their best player, as Jacy Sheldon has played just five of 15 games. Then Ohio State lost Madison Greene for the season with another knee injury. Yet the Buckeyes have kept winning, posting three victories, including two against top-20 teams, since Greene went down.
The Utes (14-0) are third in the country in scoring, are off to the second-best start in program history and rank No. 5 in the NET after being picked fifth in the Pac-12 preseason coaches' poll.
Throw Michigan, Duke and Florida State into the pool of teams exceeding expectations. In part because of the Blue Devils and Seminoles, the ACC is even deeper and better than anticipated. The Pac-12 is, too. The SEC, on the other hand, is no longer in the race as the best conference in the country. The SEC has only four teams in the top 30 of the NET, fewer than the ACC, Pac-12 and Big Ten, the latter of which is the national leader.
That's where we are now. What's to come now that conference play is here in full force will have even more bearing on how everything shakes out in March. As Bracketology moves into twice-weekly updates beginning next week, here are the storylines that should contribute most to the 2½-month sprint to Selection Sunday.
Injuries
The amount of star power that has missed significant time for highly ranked teams is staggering, but for the most part, those teams have survived. The absence of Sheldon and Greene hasn't slowed Ohio State. Kevin McGuff has developed talent as well as any coach in the country. Rikki Harris, his third option at point guard, scored 14 points in Ohio State's biggest win of the season Saturday over Michigan.
Indiana has navigated around Grace Berger's absence the past eight games. Virginia Tech expected big things from Ashley Owusu, but she has been out for half of the Hokies' games. UConn has dealt with a rash of injury and illness, none more significant than Azzi Fudd's knee injury, but she is expected back soon. The Huskies are still No. 4 in the NET against the nation's toughest schedule. More recently, NC State's Diamond Johnson (ankle) and the UCLA Bruins' Charisma Osborne (shoulder) have missed time. Both are vital to their respective team's success.
Which of these players recover, when they recover and begin contributing again, how their teams do in any continued absence, and when they return will have a major impact on the chase for seeding. NC State is 3-1 without Johnson, but can that be sustained if the Wolfpack hit the meat of the ACC schedule without her? If Berger never returns, the evaluation of Indiana is straightforward. If the Hoosiers begin to struggle, then she returns and they play significantly better, that would factor into the committee's view of Indiana.
Availability of talent is one of the 14 pieces of selection criteria the committee uses. Any losses suffered without key players, who then return, won't be viewed as harshly if a team regains its footing when the full complement of talent is back. Evaluating injuries, especially ones that have happened to so many important players this season, can be tricky, so it will be almost as important to keep a close eye on health as it is the wins and losses.
NET rankings
Rebeka Mikulasikova drains triple vs. Michigan Wolverines
This is the time of year when Bracketology takes on a more analytical slant, rather than being quite so speculative. The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ratings are the foundation for that analysis.
As is said every year with NET -- or the RPI before it -- these ratings aren't the end-all, be-all. The straight NET rating is one piece of criteria. It's also the foundation for others such as significant wins, strength of schedule, strength of conference and bad losses. The NET is a formula that includes offensive and defensive efficiency, wins and losses, the strength of the opponent played and the location of the game. It's more inclusive than the RPI because it includes the efficiency portions (how a team played) in addition to the results. The pure NET ranking of a team won't strictly determine its seed, but these will be the ratings to watch the rest of the season. The more time goes by, the more important they become.
The ACC race
Olivia Miles drains the jumper
Before the season began, this was expected to be the most competitive race, with the most teams competing for top-16 status. Based on what happened in the season's first two months, the ACC might be even more wide open.
No conference in the country will have more impact on seeding. Right now, six ACC teams are legitimately competing for a top-four seed, and that doesn't include Louisville, one of the preseason favorites. Notre Dame has emerged as the favorite and has claimed a No. 1 seed this week, but the rise of Duke and Florida State widens the ACC's scope. Every week in the ACC there will be at least one or two games that will shift seeding near the top, in turn impacting every other team vying for those spots.
Which first-half disappointments can rebound?
Tennessee and Texas have received the most notoriety for their disappointing early-season performances. Louisville is another. Iowa and North Carolina haven't been quite as good as predicted, either. Princeton is another team that let some opportunities slip away.
As with the teams mentioned above, injuries hit the Lady Vols and Longhorns hard in November and December. Both are playing better as of late and have worked their way back into this week's Bracketology projection. It's no coincidence that getting back point guard Rori Harmon has made Texas better, despite the season-ending ACL tear for sophomore forward Aaliyah Moore. Tennessee is also getting more accustomed to playing without center Tamari Key, also lost for the season after blood clots were discovered in her lungs.
Neither team will reach the high seed it expected, but if the recent trends continue, making the NCAA tournament will not be an issue. However, the margin for error is small, and both could use a significant win along the way. The Lady Vols still have UConn, South Carolina and the LSU Tigers on their schedule. Texas has the gantlet of the Big 12 ahead, with two games apiece against Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma.
Louisville is in a similar position. With most of the ACC season in front of them, the Cardinals could still win the conference. That would provide enough quality wins to get back into the top 16. However, a top-2 seed, which once seemed possible, won't happen. And given how deep the ACC looks, Louisville could still play its way out of the NCAA tournament.
Louisville, Tennessee and Texas are not safe without an improvement over the season's first half.
The Hawkeyes and Tar Heels don't have nearly as much to worry about as it relates to making the NCAA tournament. But their leagues are good enough that their losses suffered recently could start to compound, and the hopes of advantageous seeding can disappear quickly.
Princeton also let some opportunities slip away. The Tigers, whose 42-game Ivy League winning streak was snapped by Harvard on Saturday, might now have to win the Ivy League tournament to get a bid.
Which teams currently projected in the NCAA bracket will solidify their spot in the madness?
Utah, Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas, St. John's, Duke, Florida State, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The list of teams exceeding expectations to this point is long. These form the other group of teams to watch most closely. Which ones can sustain their early success? Which will level off and lose their current seed status?
Illinois went from being a team not even under consideration to a No. 7 seed this week, and took a big step to proving the first two months were no fluke with Sunday's win over Iowa, the Illini's first victory over a Top 25 team in four years. Ohio State's win over Michigan on Saturday said more about just how good the Buckeyes are than any blemish on Michigan's résumé. The Big Ten race is nearly as intriguing as the ACC's.
The Red Storm are off to the best start in program history and are ranked in the national polls for the first time in eight years. However, with a schedule ranked 182nd and a NET of 44, they still have something to prove. St. John's faces a key four-game stretch starting next week of UConn, Villanova, Marquette and DePaul.