ESPN's College Football Real Plus-Minus measures the impact of each player, adjusted for the others on the field each play. Current Top 5: 1. Mac Jones, Alabama 2. Zach Wilson, BYU 3. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 4. Dillon Gabriel, UCF 5. Spencer Rattler, OU

Paul Sabin, ESPN Analytics1d ago

Yannick Ngakoue's 11% pass rush win rate as an edge player ranks 32nd out of 47 qualifiers this season. He ranked 14th with a 21% win rate last season. (PRWR is an ESPN stat built with NFL Next Gen Stats data)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics1d ago

There is a 28% chance that the winner of the NFC East will have just six or fewer wins, according to FPI. In 13 of FPI's 20,000 simulations this morning, a team won the division with just *four* wins (11 of those were the Eagles, with one apiece of the Giants and Washington). In one simulation the Chiefs won 15 games and the entire NFC East won 14 games combined.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

When Cameron Dantzler was the nearest defender to the targeted receiver at time of ball arrival in the first half, the Falcons completed 7 of 8 pass attempts for 58 yards and a touchdown, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics5d ago

The Jets and Giants both finish 0-16 in 10 of FPI's 20,000 simulations today. The Giants earned the No. 1 pick in all 10 of those sims.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics11d ago

The Browns have the 10th-best chance to reach and win the Super Bowl, at 4% and 1% respectively, according to FPI.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics11d ago

ESPN's win probability model said the 4th-and-1 decision at the 2-minute warning was basically a wash. The Vikings' chance to win by choosing to go for it was 98%, and it would have been 97.8% had Zimmer chosen to attempt a field goal.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics12d ago

Jimmy Garoppolo's 1.4 QBR today is the lowest of his career (in qualifying games) and the lowest QBR game by any quarterback this season.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics12d ago

Ryan Fitzpatrick recorded the highest QBR thus far in Week 5 (99.1) and currently ranks fourth (!) in QBR this season.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics12d ago

Rookie Tyler Biadasz actually ranks fourth in pass block win rate among centers thus far this season. A very large caveat though: he's been part of a double-team on 92% of his pass blocks, the highest rate for any qualifying center. >>ESPN pass blocking metrics are powered by NFL Next Gen Stats data.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics13d ago

The Cowboys have three of the five lowest-rated interior linemen in run stop win rate. Dontari Poe, Antwaun Woods and Tyrone Crawford rank 72nd, 73rd and 76th in the metric out of 76 qualifiers. Run stop win rate is an ESPN metric that uses NFL Next Gen Stats data.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics15d ago

Incredible turnaround by the Browns' run blocking from last year to this. 2019 Run Block Win Rate Rank: 31st 2020 Run Block Win Rate Rank: 2nd* *Entering Monday's games >>RBWR is an ESPN metric that uses Next Gen Stats data.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics18d ago

On 4th and 4 from the Rams' 48 with 9:46 left in the game, the Giants punted. ESPN's win probability model disagreed with that decision. WP go: 35.7% WP punt: 33.3% Giants would have needed to think they had at least a 34% chance to convert to justify going for it. Average conversion rate in that situation is 46%.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics19d ago

Cornerbacks with the best yards per coverage snap allowed in Week 4 through the early games, per NFL Next Gen Stats: Shaquill Griffin 0.2 Carlton Davis 0.4 Desmond King 0.4 Holton Hill 0.4 Marcus Peters 0.4 Griffin and Davis also recorded interceptions. >>Min. 25 coverage snaps

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics19d ago

With its schedule now released, the Pac-12 is debuting two teams on the Allstate Playoff Predictor's list of the top 10 most likely teams to reach the playoff. Oregon is the sixth-most likely team to get in -- with a 31% chance -- and USC is the 10th-most likely with a 13% shot. Ohio State leads all teams with a 69% chance.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics19d ago

Packers decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 was a no-brainer according to ESPN's win probability model. WP if they go: 52.9% WP if they punt: 48.1% An average team converts 65% of the time, Packers would need to think they had at least a 42% chance of converting to justify going for it.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics26d ago