Best net rest differential relative to opponents, 2022 regular season: Bills +13 days Lions +11 Broncos +9 And worst: Packers -13 days Texans -10 Patriots -10

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics56d ago

The Texans are the only team to face three opponents coming off their bye (at Raiders, at Giants and at Dolphins, though at Raiders is also off the Texans' bye). Nine teams face zero opponents off a bye.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics56d ago

According to ESPN's draft pick value calculator, the Eagles received the much better side of their trade today with the Saints and gained the equivalent of a late-first rounder in value through the trade IF -- and this is a big if -- we treat 2022 and 2023 picks as equals in terms of value. Even if there were some discount for 2023 (and I'm not sure there should be given the two QB classes), that's a huge gap to make up for New Orleans.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics94d ago

Rodger Saffold, who is being released by the Titans according to Adam Schefter, was once a top-10 pass block win rate guard. But he's been bottom-5 in the metric in each of the last two seasons. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics119d ago

Von Miller recorded the highest pass rush win rate in a postseason in the metric's five-year history. Highest Pass Rush Win Rate Single Postseason Since 2017 2021 Von Miller 41.5% 2018 Joey Bosa 29.7% 2021 Aaron Donald 27.8% >>Min. 30 pass rush plays with win or loss (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics144d ago

Bengals finished the Super Bowl with a 18% pass block win rate, the worst by any team in any game this season. Or, another way to put it: the Rams finished with an 82% pass rush win rate, the best by any team in any game this season. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics144d ago

Individual pass rush win rates at halftime: Aaron Donald 11% Von Miller 57% Leonard Floyd 38% Trey Hendrickson 7% Sam Hubbard 0% (ESPN / Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics144d ago

Patrick Mahomes' QBR today First half: 98.0 Second half + OT: 1.4

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics157d ago

Kyle Shanahan made the decision to punt at or inside the Rams' 45-yard line three times (including once w/ a delay of game that pushed them back to 50). All three decisions were errors, according to ESPN's win probability model. The combined WP sacrificed was 5.3 percentage points.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics158d ago

Kyle Shanahan made a substantial error by electing to punt (after purposeful delay of game) on what would have been a 4th-and-2 on the Rams' 45 yardline with roughly 10 minutes left in the game, per ESPN's win probability model. WP go: 67.6% WP punt: 64.6%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics158d ago

At halftime, Aaron Donald has a 44% pass rush win rate. Donald recorded a 27% PRWR this season, which ranked second among all players behind only Micah Parsons. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics165d ago

The Bucs' pass block win rate at halftime is 13%. The worst PBWR by a team in a single game this season was 20%. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics165d ago

49ers' blocked punt recovered for a touchdown increased San Francisco's win probability by 21 percentage points. From 32% to 53%.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics166d ago

Before his injury, Derrick Henry was having a down year. Henry rush yards over expectation per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats. 2018: +1.20 2019: +1.06 2020: +1.11 2021: +0.05 His high yardage total was driven by volume, not efficiency.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics166d ago

Kyle Shanahan made an egregious 4th down error by taking a delay of game and punting on what would have been a 4th-and-1 with 2:51 left, per ESPN's win probability model. WP numbers if it had been 4th-and-1: WP go: 86.7% WP punt: 82.2% Needed a 47% chance of conversion to justify going to for it. We estimated their conversion chance at 69%.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics172d ago

At halftime, Tom's Brady's average time to pass at halftime is 2.16 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Fastest time to throw game this year was by Ryan Tannehill at 2.17 seconds in Week 7 vs. the Chiefs (min. 14 attempts).

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics172d ago

Rich Bisaccia made a coaching error by attempting a field goal on 4th-and-3 from the Bengals' 10-yard-line down 10 points with 3:37 left, per ESPN's win probability model. WP go: 8.2% WP kick: 6.3% One reason why it's better to go for it there: you're likely to face a tougher situation -- either a longer 4th down or with the clock -- next drive. And that's exactly what happened: the Raiders had to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the 9 because they were down a touchdown.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics173d ago