Steelers chance to earn No. 1 seed based on today's result, per FPI: Win 62% Loss 26%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics16h ago

ESPN's win probability model leaned toward going for it on the Eagles' 4th-and-4, as Doug Pederson did, with 8:40 left in the game. WP go: 7.6% WP kick: 7.0% One thing to remember: if you are down 8 points, you might be down one score. But you also might be down two scores. And that's just to get to a tie.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2d ago

Quinnen Williams ranks as a defensive tackle: Run stop win rate: 1st Pass rush win rate: 5th >>ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Jets' chance to earn each draft slot, per FPI. No. 1: 69% No. 2: 29% No. 3: 2% Less than a 1% chance at all other spots combined.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

The Rams were the favorites to win the NFC West heading into Week 12, but after LA lost to the 49ers yesterday, Seattle now has the best shot at the division going into tonight's game against the Eagles. Per FPI: Seahawks 54% Rams 37% Cardinals 7% 49ers 2%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Live FPI chances to win the NFC East after the Giants' win over the Bengals. Eagles 38% Giants 34% Football Team 24% Cowboys 4% Note: Live projections account for today's results but not FPI rating changes based on today's games.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics4d ago

ESPN's win probability model did not agree with Matt Rhule's decision to attempt a field goal on 4th and 3 with 1:54 left in the game. The field goal put the Panthers up 6. WP if they went for it: 92.8% WP by kicking: 90.6% Needed just a 22% conversion chance to justify going for it, league average there is 41%.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics4d ago

There's no perfect answer for how FPI should handle the Broncos' QB situation. Two options: A: Designate one of the potential emergency QBs the starter, and they will be treated like a rookie QB who has never played before. Effectively replacement level. (Saints 8.2-point favorites). B: Trick the model into thinking Nathan Peterman is the starter because he's considered below replacement, as any emergency QB could will be. (Saints 10.5-point favorites). B felt semi-arbitrary, we chose A.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics4d ago

Remaining strength of schedule rank for NFC East teams, according to FPI: Eagles: 5 Washington: 11 Giants: 22 Cowboys: 26 Despite that, FPI does still consider the Eagles the division favorite at 44%, both because it thinks they are the best of the four teams and because of their half-game lead in the standings.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics10d ago

On plays with 0 pass rush wins -- meaning no defender beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap -- Carson Wentz has a QBR of 44. Dead last.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics10d ago

Ultimately it was moot due to a penalty, but had the Raiders attempted a field goal with 4:41 left in the half on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, ESPN's win probability model would have considered that an egregious error. The Raiders' chance to win would have been 46% if they went for it, and just 40% had they attempted a field goal.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics10d ago

The Texans recorded a pass block win rate of 82% today, their best PBWR game of the season. Particularly impressive given that Laremy Tunsil was out.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics11d ago

DeVante Parker only had 0.64 yards of separation on his touchdown catch from Tua Tagovailoa in the first half, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's Parker's 9th TD catch since the start of last season on a tight-window throw (less than 1 yard of separation), the most in the NFL.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics11d ago

Following its upset win over Wisconsin, Northwestern now has the best Strength of Record in the country. An average top-25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against they faced. Northwestern is just ahead of Alabama, Notre Dame and Cincinnati, respectively.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics11d ago