We're through Week 14 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and Week 15 has begun. Although the postseason is still one month away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field?
We used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoff picture to finish in specific seeds and the potential for teams out of the playoff picture to finish with the top draft pick. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Dec. 13 at 11:30 a.m. ET
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Week 15 clinching scenarios
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AFC | NFC | Seeds | No. 1 pick
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The Chiefs and Bills have clinched spots in the playoffs and their respective division titles, with Kansas City taking the AFC West by beating the Chargers on Sunday night. The Steelers, Ravens, Texans and Chargers are all looking really good to join those two in the playoffs, but the seventh spot is up for grabs. The Broncos have a 74% chance, while the Colts (26%) and Dolphins (15%) still linger.
The FPI suggests the AFC South is essentially decided -- the Texans can clinch with a win and a Colts loss this week -- but the AFC North remains in play. The Steelers lead the Ravens at 81%. The Steelers can at least clinch the playoffs in Week 15. They are in with a win or tie against Philadelphia. But they can also get in if the Dolphins lose or tie, or if the Colts lose or tie.
Six teams have been eliminated in the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns. The Bengals are hanging on at 3% after their Monday night win over the Cowboys.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The Lions and Eagles have clinched spots in the playoffs, and the Vikings and Packers are on the verge of joining them. Minnesota clinches this weekend with a win or tie, or if the Seahawks lose or tie.
The NFC South appears to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, and the NFC West is wide open. Seattle has a 50% chance to make the playoffs and a 45% chance to take the division. But the Rams and Cardinals are all very much alive. And the NFC East race can end this week: The Eagles secure the title if they win and the Commanders lose/tie, or if they tie and the Commanders lose.
The Giants have been eliminated, and the Bears, Panthers, Cowboys and Saints are all headed in that direction.
Check out our NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff picture: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.
Seeding projections
Here are the chances that teams in the playoff mix fall into each slot once the field is set. ESPN's FPI is confident that Houston will end up in that No. 4 spot in the AFC, but it isn't sure on other playoff contenders. The Chargers, for instance, have a 32% chance to finish fifth, 35% chance to finish sixth and 24% chance to finish seventh. And as for the top spot, the Chiefs hold the advantage at 77%.
The close division races in the NFC make the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds very much up for grabs. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is nearly guaranteed to the second-place finisher in the NFC North. And as for the No. 1 seed, the Lions hold the advantage over the Eagles at the moment.
Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft pick
The Giants (2-11) are eliminated from the playoffs and appear to be in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will surely be looking at the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Panthers are in the mix for the top pick, too. See the full draft order here, which is updated on Tuesdays.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)