We're through Week 10 of the 2024 NFL regular season and although the postseason is still roughly two months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.
Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Nov. 12 at 10 a.m. ET
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AFC | NFC
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The AFC is becoming more and more clear. The Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are just about locks to make the playoffs, and the Texans and Steelers are also above 90%, per our model. The Chargers (87%) are the only other team in the conference above 35% right now. So that means two things: It would be a shock if one of those six teams doesn't make the playoffs, and we're going to have a good battle for the seventh spot.
Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch. The FPI believes the AFC West, AFC East and AFC South are all but decided. Keep an eye on the AFC North, though, where the Ravens lead at 63% to take the division title.
The Patriots and Raiders sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances, but the Jaguars, Titans and Browns all join them at 3% or worse.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The Lions and Eagles are the only NFC teams above 90% right now to make the playoffs, but the Commanders (90%), Vikings (89%) and Falcons (86%) all loom. Three NFC North teams are still looking good, with the Vikings and Packers joining Detroit with at least an 80% chance to make the postseason. Even so, the FPI says Detroit has an 83% chance to win the division.
The NFC West could be particularly interesting. The Cardinals are currently leading the way at 63% to make the playoffs and 52% to take the West, but the 49ers are right behind them at 51% and 38%, respectively. The Rams are down to 10% to reach the postseason after their loss to Miami.
The Giants, Panthers and Cowboys all have less than a 1% chance to make the postseason, and the Saints are right at 1%.
Check out our NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff picture: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)