As the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup eliminations enter its penultimate week, the race for playoff seedings is getting incredibly tight. Seeds two through seven are separated by just one and a half games, while the battle for the eighth and final quarterfinal spot is spaced by a single game.
With every game carrying significant implications, teams are pulling out all the stops to secure a favorable position. From different players stepping up to the challenge to lineup and coaching adjustments, the intensity on the court reflects the high stakes of this critical stage. Let's take a closer look at the matchups, key players, and strategies shaping the playoff picture.
1. TNT Tropang Giga (6-2)
TNT's winning streak is now at six games following another dominant week with victories over the slumping NLEX and their rivals, Ginebra. What makes these wins particularly impressive is that their defense is starting to return to the elite level that powered TNT to a championship in the previous conference.
Over the two games, TNT held their opponents to just 86.5 points per game on a mere 40.5% shooting from the field. Calvin Oftana, arguably TNT's best local player in this conference, bounced back in spectacular fashion after a subpar outing against NLEX. He delivered a stellar performance against Ginebra, posting 32 points and seven rebounds with an outstanding 75.5% TS%.
2. Meralco Bolts (7-3)
With their roster nearly back to full strength, Meralco showcased its dominance on the defensive against two tough opponents, securing a playoff berth. In their win over NorthPort, Meralco effectively shut down their key scorers, Arvin Tolentino and Joshua Munzon, and limited them to a combined 31 points on a poor 33% shooting clip. Against San Miguel, their defense shone in the fourth quarter, holding their opponents to just 13 points and sealing the victory.
Another bright spot for Meralco this week was the emergence of Chris Banchero. Stepping into the starting lineup in place of the injured Aaron Black, Banchero delivered outstanding performances, averaging 22 points, three rebounds, and three assists on an impressive 67.6 TS%.
3. Converge FiberXers (8-3)
Converge continues to make a strong case as a legitimate playoff contender. They showed their resilience when they erased an 18-point first-quarter deficit to secure a win over Rain or Shine. They followed it up with a dominant offensive performance against Blackwater and racked up an impressive 127 points.
Alec Stockton played a pivotal role in the victory over Rain or Shine, delivering 17 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter to thwart any comeback attempts. Meanwhile, this season's top draft pick, Justine Baltazar, had a breakout game against Blackwater, setting a career-high with 20 points. Baltazar's growing confidence and Stockton's clutch performance underscore Converge's depth and potential, making them a team to watch as the conference progresses.
4. Eastern (7-3)
Despite the challenge of juggling three games in three days across different tournaments, Eastern managed to secure a hard-fought victory this week, thanks to their role players stepping up offensively.
When import Chris McLaughlin went down with an injury in the first quarter, the team relied heavily on their lethal outside shooting to stay competitive. Eastern knocked down a scorching 19 triples at an impressive 55.9% clip, handing Terrafirma yet another loss. Steven Guinchard continued his hot streak, hitting five 3s and adding one 4-point shot to carry Eastern through the first half. Additionally, Ramon Cao delivered a standout performance, scoring 23 points on 62.5% shooting from beyond the arc (5/8), solidifying his contribution to the win.
5. Rain or Shine Elasto Painters (6-3)
After back-to-back losses, Rain or Shine rediscovered its offensive rhythm with a commanding 127-point performance against NorthPort. The team showcased remarkable balance, with seven players scoring in double figures -- a stark contrast to their poor 39.7% shooting in the earlier loss to Converge in the past week.
Import Deon Thompson delivered his best stretch yet with Rain or Shine, averaging an impressive 24.5 points and 17.5 rebounds on an efficient 65.9% true shooting percentage. Adding to their resurgence was the continued development of Adrian Nocum, who put up a well-rounded performance against NorthPort with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, highlighting his growing impact on both ends of the floor.
6. Barangay Ginebra (6-4)
For the millions of Ginebra fans, seeing Justin Brownlee struggle has been a rare sight. At the start of the year, it was reported that Brownlee was dealing with flu-like symptoms, which contributed to an eight-turnover game against NorthPort and several uncharacteristically low-scoring performances.
Even with a much-needed five-day rest before their pivotal match against TNT, Brownlee continued to struggle, finishing with 20 points on a disappointing 39.4% true shooting. His shooting woes were particularly evident from beyond the arc, where he converted just 4-of-16 attempts, further highlighting difficulties in finishing around the rim. Adding to Ginebra's concerns, Scottie Thompson, who also dealt with illness in recent weeks, delivered a subpar performance against TNT, contributing only nine points on nine shot attempts.
7. NorthPort Batang Pier (7-3)
The key question for NorthPort is whether they can sustain their scorching offense throughout the conference -- or, perhaps more critically, whether they can defend at a high level to compensate for off nights on the offensive end. So far, the answer to both concerns has been a resounding, "no."
In matchups against contenders Meralco and Rain or Shine, NorthPort's defense has been exposed, allowing a staggering 119 points per game. Their interior defense has been particularly problematic, giving up an average of 52 points in the paint. While tracking stats are unavailable at the moment, the eye test paints a clear picture: their transition defense has been abysmal. If this issue isn't addressed, even strong performances from Arvin Tolentino and Joshua Munzon won't be enough to carry NorthPort to playoff success.
8. Magnolia Hotshots (4-6)
Magnolia is hoping to build on their impressive win over Phoenix, a game that showcased the untapped potential of their offense. They posted a conference-high 110 points, with three players contributing 20-point performances.
What stood out most was their 3-point shooting. Magnolia attempted 33 shots from beyond the arc, converting 39.4% -- an intriguing development for a team not typically known for its perimeter game. A key factor in this improvement was the insertion of young guard Peter Alfaro into the starting lineup, who hit four triples. Off the bench, Zav Lucero also made a significant impact, delivering an aggressive 25-point performance on an outstanding 76.2% true shooting, highlighted by a perfect 10-of-10 from the free-throw line.
9. San Miguel Beermen (4-5)
San Miguel has once again changed imports, bringing in Malik Pope as their fourth import in an effort to find a better fit alongside June Mar Fajardo and improve the team's offensive spacing.
While Pope has the potential to stretch the floor and contribute more on the perimeter, his performance in San Miguel's loss to Meralco was underwhelming, as he managed just 14 points on 10 attempts. However, there were signs of improvement in the team's offensive flow, as Fajardo and backup center Mo Tautuaa combined for 28 points, shooting 62.5% from inside. It was also encouraging to see Don Trollano get more opportunities, adding 14 points -- an important development as the team looks to unlock his shooting from beyond the arc.
10. NLEX Road Warriors (4-6)
NLEX finally snapped their five-game losing streak and kept their quarterfinal hopes alive. They shot an efficient 47.5% from the field and provided import Mike Watkins with the support he lacked in their earlier loss to TNT.
A now-healthy Robert Bolick wasted no time asserting his leadership, delivering an impressive 26-point performance on an efficient 71.9% true shooting. The real revelation, however, was rookie Jonnel Policarpio, who made the most of his opportunity despite head coach Jong Uichico tightening the rotation. Policarpio contributed 17 points, showcasing his ability to capitalize on timely drives stemming from the effective two-man game of Watkins and Bolick.
11. Phoenix Fuel Masters (3-7)
Phoenix failed to capitalize on their first winning streak of the conference, which included an impressive victory over a streaking Rain or Shine. It was a golden opportunity missed, as they squandered chances to derail fellow playoff hopefuls Magnolia and NLEX.
Their ongoing struggle with inconsistent local scoring was evident in the usual high-scoring performance with 36 points, only Ricci Rivero managed to support him with 13 points. No other Phoenix player scored in double figures, highlighting the team's persistent offensive woes this conference. This lack of balanced scoring has made it difficult for Phoenix to sustain leads or mount comebacks against tougher opponents, leaving them vulnerable in critical games.
12. Blackwater Bossing (2-8)
It felt good for Blackwater to find a bright spot as they head into the final games of the elimination round, after they secured a win over fellow cellar-dweller Terrafirma. However, as expected, they failed to build on that momentum against a strong Converge team, with a lackluster defensive effort proving costly.
It may sound like a broken record, but George King continues to do all he can to lead Blackwater. Unfortunately, the defensive struggles of the team's locals have remained a significant liability. On a positive note, veteran big man Justin Chua delivered back-to-back productive offensive performances, averaging 16.5 points and six rebounds for the week. His contributions have been a rare source of consistency in an otherwise turbulent campaign for Blackwater.
13. Terrafirma Dyip (0-11)
Misery continues for Terrafirma with yet another loss, this time at the hands of fellow struggling team Blackwater. While the young players have stepped up to produce decent numbers, the inability of the veterans to ease their scoring burden remains a significant issue.
Terrence Romeo is still searching for his rhythm, delivering another lackluster performance with just one point. Meanwhile, Vic Manuel, who had a hot start to the conference, has seen his production vanish, finishing scoreless against Blackwater. This decline in output from key veterans has only compounded Terrafirma's struggles, leaving them without reliable options to anchor their offense when it matters most.