San Miguel's conference struggles have transformed their usual celebratory toast into a sobering reality.
Winning and the San Miguel Beermen have been synonymous since they entered the PBA in 1975. With a storied history that includes 29 championships and some of the league's most iconic players, San Miguel is widely regarded as one of the most successful franchises in the league.
The Beermen still boast a roster filled with high-caliber stars, led by nine-time MVP June Mar Fajardo. The dominant big man continues to be a force in the paint, averaging an impressive 18.7 points and 17.3 rebounds this conference. His stellar play has made him the statistical leader in the Best Player of the Conference race, reaffirming his status as one of the league's best players.
Yet, despite Fajardo's heroics and the team's star-studded lineup, cracks and inconsistencies have emerged. San Miguel currently sits at a disappointing 3-4 midway through the conference. If the conference ended today, they would need to win a playoff to secure the final spot in the quarterfinals -- a scenario reminiscent of their struggles a decade ago when they last missed the playoffs in the same conference.
There's still time to climb the standings with five games left in their schedule, but recurring and new glaring issues must be addressed by San Miguel to regain their footing.
Import concerns
It's safe to say that the import saga San Miguel experienced during the Governors' Cup has carried over. With Bennie Boatwright still recovering from an Achilles injury, the team has already tried out three imports as of this writing - and possibly more, given their current struggles.
After back-to-back losses to Hong Kong Eastern and Barangay Ginebra, San Miguel remained winless in two games under their third import, Jabari Narcis. In those outings, Narcis posted averages of 22.5 points, 10 rebounds, and one assist per game. What stands out is his net plus-minus of minus-22 -- the worst among all San Miguel players during this stretch. He also shot a poor 44.5% true shooting percentage, far below the expectations for an import.
In their most recent East Asia Super League (EASL) game against the Hiroshima Dragonflies, San Miguel opted to field their second import, Torren Jones. Jones delivered a respectable performance, finishing with 24 points and 13 rebounds on 45% shooting from the field.
"Jabari is bigger than Torren Jones. And we felt that, with consultation from everybody, they believed that this import Jabari could help with his size," coach Leo Austria said.
Fit-wise, the situation with Narcis has been less than ideal. His inability to stretch the floor with consistent outside shooting has hurt San Miguel's spacing, especially when paired with Fajardo in the paint. Meanwhile, Jones primarily operates inside, creating similar challenges. San Miguel has significant room for improvement in integrating their imports into the system, especially in finding the right fit alongside Fajardo and the rest of the team.
Offensive woes and coaching adjustments
For a team renowned for its firepower, San Miguel's offense has been surprisingly lackluster this conference. According to data from InStat, they currently have the worst offensive rating in the 2024 Commissioner's Cup, managing only 81.3 points per 100 possessions. This inefficiency was evident in their first game of the year, where the team scored just 81 points while shooting a dismal 36% from the field and 29.6% from beyond the arc.
One significant factor contributing to San Miguel's struggles is the mid-conference coaching change. Austria returned to replace Jorge Gallent as head coach, a move that brought adjustments to the team's system. Known for his emphasis on post offense with Fajardo as the focal point, Austria has changed the team's sets and actions, as well as personnel usage, to align with his preferred style.
The coaching change has led to fluctuating playing time for several players, making it challenging for them to find their rhythm. A clear example is the point guard rotation between Chris Ross and Juami Tiongson. Ross, a trusted veteran under Austria during their championship runs, has seen his minutes increase significantly over the last four games, averaging 23.3 minutes per game -- up from just 15.2 minutes per game in the previous conference -- but still producing a low scoring output of 1.8 points.
Tiongson, who is still adjusting to his role with his new team, has been logging an average of 21.1 minutes per game. The constant shifts in roles and playing time have created inconsistencies, impacting the overall flow and chemistry of the team.
Can CJ Perez get better?
It's time to have an honest conversation about CJ Perez. While he has proven himself as a reliable scorer with the ability to hit big shots in crucial moments, particularly during San Miguel's tight games, his overall performance this conference has been a mixed bag. Perez's undeniable talent is evident, but questions linger about his consistency and fit within the team's offense.
Offensively, Perez's numbers remain solid but fall short of expectations for a player of his caliber. He's currently averaging 14.9 points, four rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, but his shooting splits of 40.4% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 74% from the free-throw line highlight inefficiencies in his game. His shot selection has been a recurring issue, with an overreliance on isolation plays. These tendencies often stall San Miguel's offense, which is already struggling with ball movement and spacing this conference.
Defensively, Perez's inconsistencies are equally concerning. While he has the athleticism and instincts to be a disruptive force, his tendency to gamble for steals often leaves the team vulnerable. When his gambles fail, it forces his teammates into scramble situations, leading to easy baskets for the opposition. This lack of discipline on defense has added to San Miguel's struggles, particularly against teams with high offensive efficiency.
The broader challenge is Perez's role within the team. Despite his talent, it's unclear if San Miguel has fully optimized his potential. Is he being asked to shoulder too much of the offensive load, or does he need to recalibrate his approach to fit better into what San Miguel wants to do on offense?
San Miguel's struggles in this conference stem from a combination of issues that demand immediate attention.
From import instability and inconsistent offensive production to fluctuating rotations and underwhelming performances from key players like CJ Perez, the once-dominant Beermen appear out of sync. But all is not lost. With so much talent on this roster, they have the potential to turn things around if they can quickly strike the right balance.