Who throws the best deep ball in the Big Ten? And who’s mastered the short pass?
Well, we made our educated guesses in the preseason. But with the season almost over -- and thanks to some nifty analytics software -- we decided to crunch the numbers and see what the data said.
We looked at each player’s QBR from each part of the field, from deep passes (21 yards in the air and over) to intermediate passes (11-20 yards in the air) to short passes (10 yards and under). Different quarterbacks were obviously better in different areas, so we compared each chart and came up with the answers based on QBR.
Did Ohio State's Cardale Jones live up to his "12 Gauge" nickname? Was Michigan State's Connor Cook the best of the conference? And, maybe more interestingly, who’s at the bottom? Here’s what we found, starting with the deep pass:
Best at the deep ball: Jones (QBR on passes over 20 yards: 97.7; national average: 78)
Runner up: Cook (QBR on passes over 20 yards: 96.2)
Worst: Maryland QB Caleb Rowe (QBR on passes over 20 yards: 11.6)
Here’s a closer look at Jones’ passing grid. Again, the numbers simply reflect Jones’ QBR at each point of the field, and the yellow line represents the line of scrimmage. Red means he’s high above the national average, blue means he’s below, and black means he’s either close to average or there’s not enough data to make a hot/cold judgment:
We’ve known for a while about Jones’ arm strength. Two teammates said they’ve seen him throw the ball 65 yards on one knee, and he delivered a 74-yard pass in the spring game. But that doesn’t necessarily translate into accuracy.
That being said, it still did with Jones. He’s currently 13-of-30 on deep throws for 449 yards and five touchdowns, compared to two interceptions. That means he’s completing deep balls 43.3 percent of the time -- which is markedly above the national average of 34.1 percent. That speaks to just what a great deep-ball passer Jones is because the numbers could’ve been even higher. Urban Meyer acknowledged earlier in the season that Jones was underthrowing some of his receivers and, despite that, he’s statistically still the best in the B1G.
Best at intermediate passes: Cook (QBR on passes 11-20 yards: 94; national average: 79.5)
Runner up: Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett (QBR on passes 11-20 yards: 90.7)
Worst: Purdue QB Austin Appleby (QBR on passes 11-20 yards: 2.4)
Here’s a closer look at Cook’s passing grid:
With the back-and-forth at Ohio State, Cook has certainly played like the best quarterback in the Big Ten -- and the numbers sure seem to back that up. He’s the conference’s second-best QB at the long ball and the best signal-caller with the intermediate pass.
His intermediate QBR puts him at No. 10 in the Power 5. But he’s been nearly perfect in this area of the field: 58-of-105 (55.2 percent) for 1,035 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception. His completion percentage here actually isn’t that much higher than the national average of 51 percent, but he’s still been incredibly efficient.
Best at short passes: Iowa QB C.J. Beathard (QBR on passes 10 yards and less: 74.2; national average: 65.1)
Runner up: Indiana QB Nate Sudfeld (QBR on passes 10 yards and less: 74.1)
Worst: Maryland QB Perry Hills (QBR on passes 10 yards and less: 17.5)
Here’s a closer look at Beathard’s passing grid:
And for comparison's sake, here's Sudfeld's:
Beathard beat out Sudfeld by the narrowest of margins -- 0.1 QBR points. Beathard threw the better ball from one to 10 yards, while Sudfeld boasted the higher QBR on throws made at or behind the line of scrimmage. When the two were added together, however, Beathard had the edge.
Beathard has gone 129-of-185 from 10 yards and less for 1,197 yards, five TDs and no interceptions. He’s almost right at average when it comes to completion percentage -- 69.7 percent, compared to the national average of 69 percent -- but it’s his key throws and touchdowns that really help give him a boost. Interestingly enough, Michigan QB Jake Rudock -- who Beathard replaced at Iowa -- is also right behind those two with a QBR of 72.6.