FRISCO, Texas -- Since the 2016 NFL draft, quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott have been connected in many ways.
Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick for the Philadelphia Eagles, has played with outsized expectations; Prescott, the No. 135 overall pick for the Dallas Cowboys, has outperformed expectations and become a preeminent pitchman. From 2017 to 2019, either the Eagles or Cowboys won the NFC East with Wentz and Prescott as each teams' predominant starter.
For the past 18 months, the quarterbacks' contract situations have been linked, too. Wentz signed a four-year, $128 million extension in 2019. Prescott, whose 2020 season ended because of a right ankle injury, is still waiting for a long-term deal while finishing out the season on the $31.4 million franchise tag.
Even as both watch Sunday's game at AT&T Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) -- Wentz from the sideline as a backup to rookie Jalen Hurts and Prescott likely from his home -- they are viewed as a pair when it comes to what their uncertain futures hold. For the Cowboys, Wentz can serve as a potential cautionary tale of what can go wrong when the quarterback does not play to the level of such a gigantic contract -- especially as Dallas prepares for a third round of negotiations with Prescott's agent, Todd France, when the season ends.
"All you got to do is wake up in the morning, any morning, and not have any room under the cap," Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said Tuesday on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas. "I'm not woe is me, not in the troubles and times that Americans are in, but all you've got to do is wake up [and] you've spent all your credit card, which means you've extended your player contracts out beyond their playing years, which is a common practice to get room under the cap; wake up when you've spent all of your credit; wake up when you don't have any money; and wake up when you need football players."
Prescott's value now
The Joneses -- Jerry and Stephen, the team's executive vice president -- have consistently said they want Prescott to be their quarterback for the long term. Prescott has said he wants to be the Cowboys' quarterback. Yet the sides have been unable to agree on a long-term deal. The same roadblocks that prevented a deal last July will remain in place in 2021 (a four-year vs. five-year deal, cash flow, average salary per year) and with a leaguewide salary cap that will drop to as low as $175 million because of after-effects from the coronavirus pandemic.
If the Cowboys use the franchise tag on Prescott again, it will cost $37.7 million and likely make 2021 his final year in a Dallas uniform. Prescott will then follow a similar path that quarterback Kirk Cousins walked in Washington a few years ago.
Since suffering a dislocation and compound fracture of his right ankle against the New York Giants in Week 5, Prescott's value has only increased. With a 5-9 record, the Cowboys' season has been a disaster on many fronts. The Cowboys were 2-3 in Prescott's five starts, but he was playing at a high level. Despite missing the past nine games, Prescott leads the Cowboys in passing yards.
In July, the Cowboys had an offer to Prescott worth $34.5 million a year and included a $50 million signing bonus and $111 million guaranteed, but it was a five-year offer. France insisted on a four-year deal, hoping to get Prescott back on the market as soon as possible with the big money expected from impending television contracts.
"You've got to be in that $35 million to $40 million range," said former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik and current Sirius XM analyst. "And you've got to look to find an out after Year 2, because you don't want to put yourself in a situation Philadelphia is in with Carson. There's a buffer in there. As a negotiator, as a general manager, your guaranteed money over the first two [years] might be higher, but that allows you the flexibility after Year 2 to be in more control of the contract, so if it's not working out, the results aren't what you like, you don't get saddled with the contract and you have to keep the player more than you want to."
Draft a quarterback in 2021?
There is another conversation the Cowboys could (and perhaps should) be having: whether to pick a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 draft.
Jimmy Johnson, former Cowboys coach and now a TV analyst, mentioned keeping Prescott and selecting a quarterback in the first round on the Fox Sports pregame show two weeks ago. In 1989, the Cowboys took Troy Aikman with the No. 1 overall pick and also selected Steve Walsh with a first-round compensatory pick.
That was before the NFL had a salary cap. Signing Prescott to a multiyear deal that could average $40 million a year and selecting a quarterback among the draft's top 10 that could cost up to $40 million over five years is untenable from a cap standpoint and does not improve the overall roster. Plus, it would invite a quarterback controversy should Prescott struggle (see, Wentz).
Do the Cowboys have a better chance of winning in 2021 with Prescott and a roster that could be compromised from a cap standpoint, or drafting a quarterback in the first round with a roster they believe has talent and can be improved from the money that would have gone to Prescott?
The Cowboys, who are projected to draft in the top 10, will not be in a position to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but Ohio State's Justin Fields, North Dakota State's Trey Lance and BYU's Zach Wilson are all currently viewed as first-round picks.
"You should have those conversations, because you just don't have many opportunities," said one NFC personnel chief. "No one expects to be in the position to draft a quarterback [at the top of the draft], but unfortunately that's the reality. When you are, you better think hard and long about the opportunity to draft the future of your franchise.
"You're either rebuilding the roster with Dak or your rebuilding the quarterback position with a very expensive roster."
Moves to the rest of Cowboys' roster
The Cowboys prepared for the possibility of using the tag on Prescott for a second year last offseason by restructuring the contracts of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and DeMarcus Lawrence. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Cowboys have roughly $26 million in salary-cap space, most of which will be carried over to their 2021 cap.
Just to fit Prescott under the tag, the Cowboys could be forced to cut players.
Moving on from running back Ezekiel Elliott is as difficult for the Cowboys as it is for Philadelphia to move on from Wentz. Elliott's 2021 base salary of $9.6 million is already fully guaranteed and his 2022 base salary of $12.4 million becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2021 league year.
Linebacker Jaylon Smith's $7.2 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2021 league year. The Cowboys can save the $7.2 million by designating him a post-June 1 cut.
Those moves do not take into account the possibility of adding players in free agency or the cap room necessary to sign their 2021 draft class.
ESPN analyst Mike Tannenbaum, the former general manager of the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, believes the Cowboys erred by not signing Prescott two years ago.
"Zeke goes to Cabo and they reward that behavior when he has multiple years on a contract and then they could tag him," Tannenbaum said. "Here's Dak that's done everything right. You've got to keep him. They've added a lot of great players and all those guys they extended. La'el Collins, Jaylon Smith. They've done a really good job of procuring good, young players, DeMarcus Lawrence, but not paying the quarterback is a massive, massive mistake that in my opinion cost them easily $8 million or $9 million a year. They could have been in that [Jared] Goff, Wentz $32 million-$33 million a year. I don't know how Dak takes less than $40 [million] on a five- or six-year deal."
'Grass is not greener'
When the Eagles signed Wentz to an extension in 2019, few analysts saw much downside to the deal. He was having an MVP-type season in 2017 before suffering a knee injury. Wentz had a 5-6 record in 2018 but had 21 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Last season, he closed with a 4-0 record, including a win against the Cowboys, with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions.
This season, Wentz has been benched with a 3-8-1 record and leads the league in interceptions (15) and sacks (50).
"You see guys fall off a cliff at times, but that's when they're 38, 39, not 27, 28," the NFC executive said. "It's hard to think [negatively] when you've seen his first few years and they're really good. He was second in the MVP voting, led his team to the playoffs. But then he signs the long deal, huge deal and he's not worth a crap. I've never seen that."
Prescott's injury throws another question into the negotiations, one that wasn't a factor with Wentz last summer. The Cowboys say Prescott is ahead of schedule in his rehab and will be ready for the offseason program. But if he is tagged again, will he report to the voluntary offseason program? He did not take part in the Cowboys' virtual meetings last spring, but he hosted teammates at his house to work out on his turf field in his backyard.
Even if the Cowboys sign Prescott to a long-term deal, his first-year cap number will not be too far below the projected tag figure.
"It's a good quarterback draft class," Dominik said, "but in my opinion, the grass is not greener in that situation. And if Dallas doesn't want to pay Dak Prescott, there's going to be a number of teams that will. ... The quarterback is everything in this league."