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Betting buzz: Big line movement on Indiana-Ohio State

Why has the line moved so much towards the Indiana Hoosiers -- and will it stay there? James Black/Icon Sportswire

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Nov. 22: Big line movement on Indiana-Ohio State

Doug Purdum: The point spread on the Indiana Hoosiers-Ohio State Buckeyes game moved three points Thursday, dropping from Buckeyes -13 to -10, with sportsbooks reporting a surge of bets on the underdog Hoosiers.

The line on the critical Big Ten clash had grown to as high as Ohio State -13.5 early in the week but began moving toward the underdog Hoosiers on Thursday, eventually settling at a consensus -10.

ESPN BET took more money on the Buckeyes from Thursday to Friday, but moved its point spread in line with the overall market. Other sportsbooks reported taking action on the Hoosiers from sharp customers on Thursday, causing the line to move.

DraftKings reported on Friday that Indiana plus the points was the most popular college football bet on the board by both number of bets and amount of money wagered. The Indiana-Ohio State game had also attracted more bets than any other game at BetMGM sportsbooks.

Joe Brennan, chief of Prime Sports, said his online sportsbook saw sharp bets come in Thursday on Indiana, but he wasn't convinced the line was done moving. "We think this line goes back up before post," Brennan told ESPN in a text message.

In fact, the line had ticked back up to Ohio State -10.5 at some sportsbooks on Friday.

Ohio State announced on Wednesday that starting center Seth McLaughlin would miss the game after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in practice. McLaughlin is the third Buckeyes offensive lineman to be lost to injury since October. Blustery weather also could play a factor in Saturday's game in Columbus, Ohio, where forecasts are calling for temperatures in the 40s with possible higher wind gusts.

Nov. 21: How will Steelers handle the favorite spotlight?

Doug Greenberg: For the first time since the 2020 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to win the AFC North, showing -160 on ESPN BET. Mike Tomlin's squad jumped the Baltimore Ravens, who sat at -250 prior to Pittsburgh's head-to-head win in Week 11; Baltimore now displays +125 to win the division.

The Steelers' run is encouraging future bettors, as ESPN BET reports that since Pittsburgh beat the Washington Commanders on Nov. 10, they've attracted more handle to win the Super Bowl (+2200) than any other team in the NFL; over that time period, they also took a commanding majority of AFC and AFC North winner tickets and money.

Their favorite status comes with elevated expectations, and they'll carry a -3.5 spread into their road Thursday night matchup with the Cleveland Browns. It's an interesting spot for Pittsburgh in what could end up being an old school type of AFC North showdown.

For starters, the Steelers have been one of the best teams against the spread this season, with their 8-2 ATS record tied with the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers for the best in the league, and have covered in five straight, the longest active cover streak in the league and tied for the longest in a single season under Tomlin, per ESPN Research.

Specifically, the Black and Gold have been outstanding as underdogs, winning all four of their underdog games outright. Thus, it will be interesting to see how they handle being favorites on the road in a primetime divisional game.

The public certainly believes in Pittsburgh, as an overwhelming number of tickets are backing them at sportsbooks nationwide, with some reporting up to 90%. However, the handle splits are less one-sided, as books are reporting relatively more money on Cleveland, including 35.7% of the handle at ESPN BET despite comprising only 19.4% of the tickets.

Another compelling market is the over/under: At 36.5, it's one of the lowest totals of the NFL season, though it's nothing new for the Steelers, who have played in three of the six games with pregame totals below 37 this year, hitting the under in two of them. The over/under could also be affected by the weather in Cleveland, which is forecasted to be rainy and/or snowy with sustained 10-15 mph winds.

Nov. 18: Allen passes Jackson as MVP fave after game-winning run

Greenberg: On fourth-and-2 just before the two-minute warning on Sunday night, quarterback Josh Allen dropped back and unleashed a highlight-reel 26-yard touchdown run to seal a 30-21 victory for the Buffalo Bills and hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season. That single play probably tipped the scales in the NFL MVP race.

Before that play, Allen trailed Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson on the NFL MVP odds board +225 to +150; immediately following the fateful score, ESPN BET moved the odds to Allen +160 and Jackson +185. As of early Monday afternoon, Allen is +150 and Jackson remains at +185.

In the last week, Allen attracted a leading 40.5% of handle to win the award, with 63.8% in the time frame since Sunday morning, per ESPN BET. Jackson is still the overall handle leader since the market opened, taking 14.4% of the money.

The quarterback facing Allen on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes, saw the precipitous drop in his odds continue after another relatively disappointing showing. The two-time MVP began the season as the +500 favorite, fell to +600 before Week 11, and now finds himself at +1200, fourth on the odds board.

The third spot on the board belongs to Jared Goff, whose odds graph resembles a roller coaster. Early in the season, the Detroit Lions signal-caller was as long as +6000, shortened to +600 by mid-October, but then rose to +4000 after he threw five interceptions in Week 10. After a demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday that made the Lions Super Bowl favorites, Goff now sits at +650 and has taken more bets in the month of November than any other contender (21.1%).

Another big mover is Justin Herbert, who led the Los Angeles Chargers to a high-profile win over the Cincinnati Bengals on "Sunday Night Football". Herbert was 100-1 throughout October, came down +4000 before the weekend and now shows +2500 after his big night, tied for sixth in the odds.